Market Commentary – November 12, 2018

How are you feeling about financial markets?
Some votes are still being counted but investors appear to be happy with the outcome of mid-term elections. Major U.S. stock indices in the United States moved higher last week, and the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey reported:
“Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of stock prices is above average for just the second time in nine weeks…Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 3.4 percentage points to 41.3 percent. This is a five-week high. The historical average is 38.5 percent.”

Before you get too excited about the rise in optimism, you should know pessimism also remains at historically high levels. According to AAII:  “Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 3.3 percentage points to 31.2 percent. The drop was not steep enough to prevent pessimism from remaining above its historical average of 30.5 percent for the eighth time in nine weeks.”

So, from a historic perspective, investors are both more bullish and more bearish than average. If Sir John Templeton was correct, the mixed emotions of investors could be good news for stock markets. Templeton reportedly said, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”

While changes in sentiment are interesting market measurements, they shouldn’t be the only factor that influences investment decision-making. The most important gauge of an individual’s financial success is his or her progress toward achieving personal life goals – and goals change over time.

is A Zeal of zebras a better investment than a blessing of unicorns?
Collective nouns are the names we use to describe collections or significant numbers of people, animals, and other things. The Oxford English Dictionary offered a few examples:

  • A gaggle of geese
  • A crash of rhinoceros
  • A glaring of cats
  • A stack of librarians
  • A groove of DJs

In recent years, some investors have shown great interest in blessings of unicorns. ‘Unicorns’ are private, start-up companies that have grown at an accelerated pace and are valued at $1 billion.

In early 2018, estimates suggested there were approximately 135 unicorns in the United States. Will Gornall and Ilya A. Strebulaev took a closer look and found some unicorns were just gussied-up horses, though, according to research published in the Journal of Financial Economics.

The pair developed a financial model for valuing unicorn companies and reported, “After adjusting for these valuation-inflating terms, almost one-half (65 out of 135) of unicorns lose their unicorn status.”

Clearly, unicorn companies must be thoroughly researched. There is another opportunity Yifat Oron suggested deserves more attention from investors: zebra companies.  Oron’s article in Entrepreneur explained: “Zebra companies are characterized by doing real business, not aiming to disrupt current markets, achieving profitability and demonstrating it for a while, and helping to solve a societal problem…zebra companies…are for-profit and for a cause. We think of these businesses as having a ‘double bottom line’ – they’re focused on alleviating social, environmental, or medical challenges while also tending to their own profitability.”

Including both types of companies in a portfolio seems like a reasonable approach.
If you were to choose a collective noun to describe investors, what would it be? An exuberance? A balance? An influence?

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“In his learnings under his brother Mahmoud, he had discovered that long human words rarely changed their meanings, but short words were slippery, changing without a pattern…Short human words were like trying to lift water with a knife.”
–Robert Heinlein, American science fiction writer

Best regards,
John F. Reutemann, Jr., CLU, CFP®

P.S.  Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this email with their email address and we will ask for their permission to be added.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

 

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

 

 

 

* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Sources:
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
https://www.franklintempleton.com/forms-literature/download/SIRJT-POS
https://blog.oxforddictionaries.com/2014/07/11/what-do-you-call-a-group-of/
https://blog.oxforddictionaries.com/2012/08/09/collective-nouns/
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2955455
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/322407
https://books.google.com/books?id=p9UiDQAAQBAJ&pg=PT194&dq=stranger+in+a+strange+land+Long+human+words&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjunsfS0MreAhVrQt8KHVkbDbgQ6AEILTAB#v=onepage&q=stranger%20in%20a%20strange%20land%20Long%20human%20words&f=false (Page 167) 

Ten Ways to Show Veterans We Care

Every year on Veterans Day, we take time to think about the sacrifices made by those in uniform. We say, “Thank you for your service,” to any veterans we know. Perhaps we attend a local parade or event that celebrates veterans.

Those are all good and important traditions. It strikes me, though, that those who have given so much in return for so little deserve even more – not just on Veterans Day, but every day.

With that in mind, I decided to research ways to better express my gratitude toward our veterans. Here are some of the best ideas I found:

Serve
Just as veterans serve or have served our country, we too can serve our veterans. For example:
1. Volunteer at your local VA Hospital. Offer to transport veterans to and from the hospital or visit the patients who are being treated there. You can even find a volunteer sign-up sheet by visiting https://www.volunteer.va.gov/FAQs.asp.
2. If any veterans live nearby, take time to rake their leaves, shovel their walks, clean their rain gutters, etc. This is especially helpful for older or disabled veterans!
3. Don’t forget veterans’ families! If you know anyone currently serving abroad, their family could likely use a helping hand, whether it’s cooking a meal or offering to babysit.

Donate
If you don’t know any local veterans, or don’t live near a VA, donating your money (as opposed to your time) can be equally helpful! Here are some ways to do that:
4. Donating funds to a nonprofit organization or veterans group is always a good thing to do! There are many such organizations, like the USO, Wounded Warrior Project, and VFW (Veterans of Foreign Wars).
5. Donate clothes, books, DVDs, or games to your local VA hospital or veterans’ organization.
6. Donate any frequent flyer miles you have to wounded or sick service members, so they can visit their families or travel to a specialized treatment center. Learn more at https://fisherhouse.org/programs/hero-miles/.

Demonstrate
Simply showing your appreciation through acts of kindness can make a veteran’s day. For instance:
7. If you see a veteran in a local restaurant or coffeehouse, quietly ask to pay their bill.
8. If you own a business, offer a special discount to veterans.
9. Write letters to veterans, especially those still on active duty. There are many organizations that facilitate this sort of thing. Simply Google “write letters to veterans” and you’ll find plenty.
10. Along those lines, drop a handwritten card or note in a veteran’s mailbox letting them know how grateful you are for their service.

The freedoms we enjoy every day aren’t just guaranteed by the Constitution. They’re guaranteed by the men and women who stood up and said, “I will serve.” We can probably never repay the debt we owe them – but we can certainly do our best to try! From all of us here at Research Financial Strategies, I’d like to say, “Thank you” to our veterans. We wouldn’t have a nation without you.
Happy Veterans Day!

Don’t Be Deceived By Mutual Funds

Don’t Be Deceived By Mutual Funds

Don't Be Deceived By Mutual Funds

Best Mutual Funds?
Since the bull market run started 10 years ago, how many mutual funds would you guess outperformed the stock market?

If you are thinking 500, 200 or even 20, you are very wrong.  In fact, not one single mutual fund has beaten the market since 2009.  After pondering that fact, does that make you want to change what you invest in?   Remember all those expensive, slickly produced TV and magazine ads boasting market beating ratings and top quartiles?  You know, the ones that show an incredibly good looking, but aging couple walking hand in hand into the sunset on a deserted beach?  They all are just so much bunk. The funds mentioned rarely quote performance beyond one or two short years.

Not too long ago, the New York Times studied the performance of 2,862 actively managed domestic stock mutual funds since 2009. It carried out a simple quantitative analysis, looking at how many managers stayed in the top performance quartile every year.

ZERO was their final conclusion.   It gets worse…. It is very rare for a mutual fund manager to stay in the top quartile for more than one year. All too often, last year’s hero is this year’s goat, usually because they made some extreme one-sided bet that turned out to be a flash in the pan.  The harsh lesson here is that investing with your foot on the gas pedal going 100 miles per hour and your eyes on the rearview mirror is certain to get you into a fatal crash.

 

“It is possible that any one of these mutual funds will beat the market over the long term,” … “Some of them will do that. But the problem is that we don’t know which of them will do that in advance.” And that, in a nutshell, is the kernel of the argument for buying index funds.
  -New York Times

In their investigation, The NY Times did come across two mutual funds which did beat the S&P500 for five years.  These small cap energy funds more than average amounts of risk to achieve these numbers and have since lost most of their money.
The underlying causes for the pitiful underperformance are many and they highlight the reasons ETFs are coming on strong.  Mutual fund management fees are high and more buried costs are hidden in the fine print of the prospectus. The managemnt fees that are quoted are just the tip of the iceberg.

Any proven,  real talent soon flees the mutual fund industry, with all the real brains leaving to start their own hedge funds and investment advisory services. The inside joke among hedge fund managers is that employment at a mutual fund is proof positive that you are a lousy manager.

Let’s revisit those high dollar mutual fund TV ads. They cost tons of money to make.  All the production costs of the commercials are rolled up into those 12B-1 hidden fees you never really see unless you hunt through the prospectus.  These commercials and print ads are made at the expense of the fund investors thus yielding you a lower return on investment on your money. And those sexy performance numbers? They benefit from a huge survivor bias. If a mutual funds performance is substandard, it is at risk of being closed. As there is a impending desire to protect the other funds in the family. Trying to find mutual funds with standout records spanning 2 decades is near impossible. Like finding the proverbial needle in a haystack.

But since we are on a roll, its hard to imagine that the mutual fund industry as a a whole woefully underperforms the basic S&P500 averages. How could this be? Random picks from the stock pages of your local paper would probably create a better investment return than the majority of the mutual fund industry.

Two years ago, when he signed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, President Barack Obama bragged that he’d dealt a crushing blow to the extravagant financial corruption that had caused the global economic crash in 2008. “These reforms represent the strongest consumer financial protections in history,” the president told an adoring crowd in downtown D.C. on July 21st, 2010. “In history.”

Financial Advisor, Financial Advisor Maryland, Investment Advisor, Retirement Planner, Retirement Planning, TSP Transfer, TSP Rollover, 401K Rollover, Best, Adviser, Advisor

This was supposed to be the big one. At 2,300 pages, the new law ostensibly rewrote the rules for Wall Street. It was going to put an end to predatory lending in the mortgage markets, crack down on hidden fees and penalties in credit contracts, and create a powerful new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to safeguard ordinary consumers. Big banks would be banned from gambling with taxpayer money, and a new set of rules would limit speculators from making the kind of crazy-ass bets that cause wild spikes in the price of food and energy. There would be no more AIGs, and the world would never again face a financial apocalypse when a bank like Lehman Brothers went bankrupt.

Two years later, Dodd-Frank is groaning on its deathbed. From the moment it was signed into law, lobbyists and lawyers have fought regulators over every line in the rulemaking process. Congressmen and presidents may be able to get a law passed once in a while – but they can no longer make sure it stays passed.

With millions of dollars being spent on high paid Washington lobbyists, the mutual fund industry continues to complain about overregulation. Plus, don’t forget, that the costs of the lobbyists also come out of your fund performance as well.

This is why the overwhelming bulk of investors are better off investing in the lower cost ETFs that have become so popular with investors, diversifying holdings among a small number of major asset classes, and then rebalancing as needed to keep the winners in play.

Research Financial Strategies does not charge you with any of our overhead. I am not jacking up what you pay me based on what I spend. I don’t even sell your email address to another online marketer. Being an independent operation of a dozen or so people, I’ll tell you what I don’t have. I lack an investment banking department telling me I have to recommend a stock so we can get the management of their next stock and we don’t have any in-house mutual funds from which we profit more and are required to push.
You just need to pay me a low, flat fee. I don’t need any more.

 

For over 25 years, Research Financial Strategies has been serving families and businesses as their investment advisor. Let us put our money management expertise to work for you. Set up a consultation by either filing out our contact form or by calling us at 301-294-7500. We are here for you!

 

 

Source: NYTimes.com

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Market Commentary – November 5, 2018

Stocks recovered some ground last week and then stumbled over unemployment.
Major U.S. stock indices faltered Friday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on a popular ‘lagging’ economic indicator – unemployment. (Remember, lagging indicators describe what has happened in the past.) The BLS reported:1, 2, 3

“The unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent in October, and the number of unemployed persons was little changed at 6.1 million. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons declined by 0.4 percentage point and 449,000, respectively.”

Reuters reported the number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits was at the lowest level in 45 years. That’s good news, but it’s old news. Again, unemployment is a lagging indicator and the report reflected what happened in October.4

The stock market, on the other hand, is a ‘leading’ economic indicator. It moves in response to investors’ expectations for the future – and recent gyrations suggest investors aren’t certain what to think. Barron’s Daren Fonda wrote, “The market’s 6.9 percent slide in October and the stock averages’ wild swings are testing everyone’s mettle.”2, 5

Economists are uncertain about what’s to come, too. Kevin L. Kliesen, in an Economic Synopses on the St. Louis Federal Reserve website, wrote, “Historically, a trough in the unemployment rate also tends to be a reliable predictor of a business recession…an economic analyst is nonetheless never sure that a trough has occurred. Indeed, the unemployment rate can move up and down over the expansion.”6

There is one thing many analysts think is likely. They expect the Federal Reserve to increase the Fed funds rate so the U.S. economy does not overheat. Paul Kiernan at The Wall Street Journal reported, “Robust hiring and wage gains last month leave the Federal Reserve all but certain to raise interest rates in December and on course to continue gradually lifting them next year.”7

Higher interest rates are expected to keep inflation in check by slowing economic growth.8
Despite Friday’s stumble, major U.S. stock indices finished the week higher.1

Here’s an unexpected retirement saving trick. If you’re concerned your adult children are not saving enough for retirement, send them a photo of themselves that’s altered so they appear to be older, perhaps age 60 or 70. (You can do this for yourself, too.)9

One reason Americans don’t begin saving early enough, or save as much as they should for retirement, is ‘present bias.’ When asked to choose between two possible rewards, research shows that people tend to choose the one that will be received sooner.10

For instance, imagine you have chocolate and fruit salad. Which will you choose to eat today and which will you choose to eat next week? Researchers found that 83 percent of people chose chocolate today and fruit salad next week.11

Try this one.
You can watch one movie today and another movie tomorrow. Your choices include ‘Anchorman,’ ‘Clear and Present Danger,’ ‘The Piano,’ and ‘Schindler’s List.’ What movie will you watch today? Which will you watch tomorrow?
Researchers found a higher percentage of participants chose to watch lighter films on the day they were asked and more intellectually taxing films later.12

When presented with the choice to vacation today or save for retirement, it’s little surprise many people choose the former. The rewards associated with retirement are often far into the future. As a result, until a person is within a decade or so of retirement, it’s easy to rationalize spending on other things and not setting aside money for the future.12

There is a way to overcome present bias. When people ‘get to know’ their older selves by spending time looking at altered photos, they tend to save more for the future.9

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“If we now care little about ourselves in the further future, our future selves are like future generations. We can affect them for the worse, and, because they do not now exist, they cannot defend themselves. Like future generations, future selves have no vote, so their interests need to be specially protected. Reconsider a boy who starts to smoke, knowing and hardly caring that this may cause him to suffer greatly fifty years later. This boy does not identify with his future self.”
–Derek Parfit, British philosopher13

Best regards,
John F. Reutemann, Jr., CLU, CFP®

P.S.  Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this email with their email address and we will ask for their permission to be added.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

 

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

 

 

 

* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indices referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Sources:
1 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-rally-fizzles-in-wake-of-strong-payrolls-report-1541201581?mod=hp_DAY_8
2 https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/what-are-leading-lagging-and-coincident-indicators/
3 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
4 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-unemployment/u-s-labor-market-tightening-manufacturing-slowing-idUSKCN1N64XA
5 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-fear-1541091809?mod=hp_LEAD_3
6 https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2018/06/01/recession-signals-the-yield-curve-vs-unemployment-rate-troughs
7 https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-will-likely-raise-rates-after-strong-jobs-report-1541176431
8 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-job-growth-soars-annual-wage-gain-largest-since-2009-idUSKCN1N70AJ
9 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3949005/
10 https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/resources/mini-encyclopedia-of-be/present-bias/
11 https://canvas.harvard.edu/files/2761311/download?download_frd=1 (Pages 10, 14-16; Course taught by Brigitte C. Madrian, https://scholar.harvard.edu/bmadrian/classes/api-304-behavioral-economics-and-public-policy)
12 https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2b03/cdc6119a5578cd284d8fe9de99e1f169a8fb.pdf  (Pages 262-263, 265)
13 https://books.google.com/books?id=ulhHdvbDRUkC&pg=PA319&lpg=PA319&dq=If+we+now+care+little+about+ourselves+in+the+further+future,+our+future+selves+are+like+future+generations.+We+can+affect+them+for+the+worse,+and,+because+they+do+not+now+exist,+they+cannot+defend+themselves.+Like+future+generations,+future+selves+have+no+vote,+so+their+interests+need+to+be+specially+protected.&source=bl&ots=lVFartNzpF&sig=LgqLWOkCgwMIpj5ixgDFIqNMJuw&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwil5t3plbbeAhVRmeAKHbX1AhYQ6AEwAHoECAAQAQ#v=onepage&q=319&f=false (pages 319-320) 

 

 

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