Weekly Market Insights | Markets Await Q4 Reports

Markets ended a short but eventful week slightly lower amid geopolitical tensions and fresh tariff threats. However, constructive economic news appeared to buoy spirits as the week progressed.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.35 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index was flat (-0.06 percent). The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.53 percent. By contrast, the MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 0.91 percent.1,2

Tariff Talk

Stocks opened lower on Tuesday after the White House threatened fresh tariffs on EU nations following an international debate over Greenland.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slid more than 2 percent, while the Dow Industrials also came under pressure.3

Markets rebounded on Wednesday after assurances that the U.S. would adopt a more diplomatic approach toward Greenland. By the close of trading, the White House also walked back its tariff threats and said it had reached a framework for a Greenland deal.

On Thursday, markets accelerated higher, powered by a slight uptick in revised Q3 GDP and lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims.4,5

The S&P 500 went sideways on Friday as investors looked ahead to a big week of Q4 corporate reports and the first Fed meeting of 2026.6

Eye-Catching Small Caps

For the 14 consecutive trading sessions through Thursday, January 22, David beat Goliath—the Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks outperformed the S&P 500. The last time that happened was May 1996. Small caps broke that streak on Friday.7

Small caps have historically outperformed large caps when interest rates have trended lower, but the 10-year Treasury rate has been rising since late October.7

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Durable Goods* (Nov).

Tuesday: Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday: Fed Interest Rate Decision. Fed Chair Powell Press Conference.

Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Trade Deficit* (Nov). Productivity (Q3). Wholesale Inventories* (Nov). Factory Orders* (Nov).

Friday: Producer Price Index* (Dec).

* indicates publication of a report delayed by the government shutdown in October and November

Source: Investors Business Daily - Econoday economic calendar; January 23, 2026. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to provide accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts are also subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Tuesday: UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH), RTX Corporation (RTX), The Boeing Company (BA), NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE), Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN), Union Pacific Corporation (UNP), HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)

Wednesday: Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), Lam Research Corporation (LRCX), International Business Machines Corporation (IBM), Amphenol Corporation (APH), GE Vernova Inc. (GEV), AT&T Inc. (T), Danaher Corporation (DHR), ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW), The Progressive Corporation (PGR), Starbucks Corporation (SBUX), Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP)

Thursday: Apple Inc. (AAPL), Visa Inc. (V), Mastercard Incorporated (MA), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO), KLA Corporation (KLAC), Stryker Corporation (SYK), Honeywell International Inc. (HON), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT), Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH), Blackstone Inc. (BX), Altria Group, Inc. (MO), Comcast Corporation (CMCSA)

Friday: Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), Chevron Corporation (CVX), American Express Company (AXP), Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)

Source: Zacks, January 23, 2026. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule their earnings reports without notice.

"If we would build on a sure foundation in friendship, we must love friends for their sake rather than for our own."

– Charlotte Brontë

Need Last Year’s Tax Returns?

Help is available for taxpayers who need tax information for prior years but who did not keep copies of their returns. There are ways to get the information you need.

Keep in mind the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) recommends that taxpayers keep copies of their returns and any documentation for at least three years after filing:

  • Ask your software provider or tax preparer. This is often the easiest way to get a copy of your tax returns.
  • Order a tax transcript. Taxpayers who cannot get a copy of a prior-year return may order a tax transcript from the IRS. This document partially masks personally identifiable information such as names, addresses, and Social Security numbers to protect taxpayers' identities. All financial entries, including the filer's adjusted gross income, are visible. These are free and available for the most current tax year after the IRS has processed the return. People can also get these records for the past three years.
  • Pay for a copy from the IRS. As a last resort, you can purchase a copy of your tax return from the IRS. 

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov8

Being SMART about fitness goals

Are you putting exercise on the back burner? Make it a priority. To stick with a workout regimen, make regular physical activity a priority. Here's where setting SMART goals can help.

Instead of saying you will "exercise more," state a SMART exercise goal. SMART stands for:
Specific: State the objective you wish to meet as precisely as possible: "I am going to commit to doing a full-body video workout several times a week.”
Measurable: Identify quantifiable criteria to allow you to measure your progress: “I am going to do this workout three times a week for at least 30 minutes each time. I will track my progress in my workout journal.”
Attainable: Your goal should be ambitious but not impossible: "I am committing to three times a week, not seven times a week, because it is realistic and achievable for me with my current schedule.”
Relevant: Your goals must align with your current circumstances and priorities: "I will do it to stay healthy and strong during these times and to feel less stressed.”
Time-bound: Allocate a specific period for completing your goal: "I will commit to this plan for a month. In 30 days, I will have had 12 workouts and will reassess my goal after that.”

Tip adapted from Cleveland Clinic9

The more of these you take, the more of these you will likely leave behind. What are they? 

Last Week's Riddle: My three eyes blink, and I give you commands. Although I can’t see, the changing colors in me prompt you to obey me with your wheels, feet and hands. What am I?

Answer: A traffic light.

Fanad Head Lighthouse

Donegal, Ireland

Footnotes And Sources

1. WSJ.com, January 23, 2026
2. Investing.com, January 23, 2026
3. CNBC.com, January 20, 2026
4. CNBC.com, January 21, 2026
5. WSJ.com, January 22, 2026
6. CNBC.com, January 23, 2026
7. WSJ.com, January 22, 2026
8. IRS.gov, July 18, 2025 
9. Cleveland Clinic, August 25, 2025

Weekly Market Insights | Powell Keeps Cool in the Hot Seat

Stocks ended last week with modest losses after a volatile five days of market-moving economic data, geopolitics, and Fed drama.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.38 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index skidded 0.66 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.29 percent. By contrast, the MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 1.41 percent.1,2

Choppy Trading 

Stocks started the week lower after pre-opening bell news that the Justice Department had launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. A statement issued Tuesday morning by central bankers worldwide helped tamp down market volatility.3,4

The White House called for a 10 percent cap on credit card interest rates for 1 year, putting pressure on financial stocks. Meanwhile, news that headline inflation matched forecasts while core inflation came in cooler than expected was well received by investors.5,6

Despite solid retail sales and wholesale inflation reports for November, stocks were under pressure on Wednesday due to geopolitical tensions and disappointing Q4 results from a handful of financial stocks.7

Then chip manufacturers and banks led a rebound, recouping most of the week’s losses. Markets opened higher on Friday but then slid after the president backtracked on his preferred candidate to be the next Fed Chair. His comments led investors to believe that his new choice would be more market-friendly but perhaps less likely to adjust interest rates.8

Fed Drama

Tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve escalated last week after the Justice Department issued a criminal indictment against Fed Chair Powell.

Powell, typically calm and collected in the face of criticism, posted an assertive video Sunday night. By the close of the week, however, investors seemed to have moved past the Fed drama as there was plenty of other news to follow.

This week: Key Economic Data

Wednesday:  Construction Spending* (Nov). Pending Home Sales.

Thursday:  Weekly Jobless Claims. Gross Domestic Product, Q3 (first revision). Personal Consumption & Expenditures (PCE) Index* (Nov).

Friday: Consumer Sentiment. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—Services & Manufacturing.

* indicates publication of a report delayed by the government shutdown in October and November

Source: Investors Business Daily - Econoday economic calendar; January 16, 2026. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to provide accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts are also subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Tuesday: Netflix, Inc. (FLIX), Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR), 3M Company (MMM), U.S. Bancorp (USB)

Wednesday: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW), Prologis, Inc. (PLD)

Thursday: Procter & Gamble Company (PG), GE Aerospace (GE), Intel Corporation (INTC), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)

Source: Zacks, January 16, 2026. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule their earnings reports without notice.

"As you get older your willingness to tell more of the truth is awakened and you don't have to think about it or imagine it because now you know this to be true."

– Keith David

Tax Tips for Those in the Military

The Internal Revenue Service has certain special tax breaks and programs for members of the U.S. Armed Forces. 

Earned Income Tax Credit
You may include nontaxable combat pay as part of your taxable income. Including it may boost your earned income tax credit, resulting in you owing less and potentially a larger refund.  

Signing Joint Returns
As a rule, both spouses normally must sign a joint income tax return. If your spouse is absent due to military duty, you may be able to sign for your spouse. However, you may need a power of attorney to file a joint return. 

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please consult with a qualified tax professional to discuss your specific tax issues.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov9

Stay Healthy During Flu Season

Conventional wisdom holds that flu season occurs in Fall and Winter, but the truth is it can vary widely from year to year and region to region. Fortunately, you may reduce your risk this coming flu season with a few simple steps.

●    Get the flu vaccination: While getting the vaccine may not prevent you from getting a strain of the flu, it may help you avoid one of the other strains. This is especially important for anyone with a chronic health condition and those 65 and older.
●    Wash your hands: Handwashing remains one of the most effective ways to prevent the flu. Wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, and wash your hands often.
●    Disinfect: Disinfect objects that you touch every day, like doorknobs, your car’s steering wheel, and other household items that you use regularly.

While this information should not substitute for medical advice from your healthcare provider, adopting better habits, such as frequent handwashing, wearing a face mask, and avoiding anyone who is ill, may help you and your loved ones stay healthy this flu season.

Tip adapted from Centers for Disease Control10

My three eyes blink, and I give you commands. Although I can’t see, the changing colors in me prompt you to obey me with your wheels, feet and hands. What am I?      

Last Week's Riddle: You can separate them with a word, yet they are mostly inseparable. What are they? Answer: Your lips.

Red Panda (Ailurus fulgens)

Rhenen, Netherlands

Footnotes And Sources

1. WSJ.com, January 16, 2026
2. Investing.com, January 16, 2026
3. CNBC.com, January 12, 2026
4. WSJ.com, January 12, 2026
5. WSJ.com, January 13, 2026
6. WSJ.com, January 13, 2026
7. CNBC.com, January 14, 2026
8. CNBC.com, January 16, 2026
9. IRS.gov, August 15, 2025
10. Centers for Disease Control, August 25, 2025

Weekly Market Insights | Santa Brings Joy for the DJIA

Stocks posted solid gains in an action-packed week of market-moving economic data, geopolitical news, and bullish new year sentiment.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.57 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 1.88 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.32 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, advanced 1.41 percent.1,2

Santa Visits Dow, But Not S&P, Nasdaq

Stocks rose early Monday, led by the Dow Industrials, as investors looked past the news from Venezuela.

By Monday’s close, the Dow Industrials had gained enough to make the “Santa Claus Rally” a reality, pushing the Average to a 1.1 percent gain for the seven-session period (the last five trading days of 2025 and the first two of 2026). However, the S&P and Nasdaq came up short.3

All three major averages continued their rise through midweek as the AI trade—led by chip manufacturers—helped momentum. The Dow Industrials crossed the 49,000 level for the first time, and both the S&P 500 and Dow hit record closes as well as all-time intraday highs.4

The Dow then moved back into the “pole position” over the next session as investors appeared to rotate out of technology stocks and into other sectors, including cyclical stocks. Defense stocks got a boost from the president’s call for a $1.5 trillion annual defense budget in 2027—higher than the Pentagon’s target.5,6

The December jobs report, released on Friday, showed modest job gains and a slight decline in the unemployment rate. Investors cheered the news, believing the update gave the Fed some flexibility with rates at its January meeting.7

Jobs Report

The Labor Department’s latest employment report showed a net gain of 50,000 jobs last month while unemployment ticked down to 4.4 percent, missing economists’ expectations of 73,000 jobs.7

Over the full year, net job growth averaged 49,000 per month—the lowest monthly pace in 22 years and a drop from 168,000 per month in 2024. Federal job cuts were a primary reason for the sluggish labor market in 2025, with 277,000 government positions eliminated.7

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Fed Presidents Tom Barkin (Richmond), Raphael Bostic (Atlanta), and John Williams (New York) speak.

Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Consumer Price Index (CPI). New Home Sales* (Oct). Fed Presidents Alberto Musalem (St. Louis) and Barkin (Richmond) speak. Federal Budget Deficit.

Wednesday: Retail Sales* (Nov). Producer Price Index (PPI)* (Nov). Business Inventories* (Oct). Existing Home Sales. Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. Fed Presidents Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis), Bostic (Atlanta), and Williams (New York) speak. Fed Governor Stephen Miran speaks.

Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Import Prices* (Nov). Fed Governor Michael Barr and Fed Presidents Jeff Schmid (Kansas City) and Barkin (Richmond) speak.

Friday: Industrial Production. Capacity Utilization. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Fed President Barkin (Richmond) speak.

* indicates publication of a report delayed by the government shutdown in October and November

Source: Investors Business Daily - Econoday economic calendar; January 9, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to provide accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts are also subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Tuesday: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK), Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)

Wednesday: Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), Citigroup Inc. (C)

Thursday: Morgan Stanley (MS), The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS), BlackRock (BLK), Infosys (INFY)

Friday: The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC)

Source: Zacks, January 9, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule their earnings reports without notice.

"It has always been easy to hate and destroy. To build and to cherish is much more difficult."

– Queen Elizabeth II

Tax Benefit and Credits: FAQs for Retirees

Many questions can arise about income taxes after retirement. Listed are answers to just a few common questions from retired taxpayers.

What types of income are taxable?
Some common types of taxable income include all or part of pension and retirement account income, gambling income, and alimony or prizes.

What types of income are non-taxable?
A few examples of non-taxable income include veterans’ benefits, disability pay for specific military or government-related incidents, workers’ compensation, and cash rebates from a dealer or manufacturer of an item you have purchased.

Why is my pension taxed?
It may depend on how the money was put into the pension. For example, if the money was not taxed before going into the plan, it may be taxable. Conversely, if your contribution is from already-taxed dollars, that portion of the pension may not be taxed.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please consult with a qualified tax professional to discuss your specific tax issues.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov8

Practicing Gratitude 

Psychologists have defined gratitude as a positive emotional response to receiving a benefit from someone or something. In positive psychology, gratitude is the human way of acknowledging the good things in life. Thankfully, you can learn gratitude if it does not come innately.

Practicing gratitude offers numerous benefits, particularly during times of stress and uncertainty. Gratitude invites positive emotions that can have physical benefits through the immune or endocrine systems. Research shows that when we reflect on what we appreciate, the parasympathetic or calming part of the nervous system is triggered, which can have protective benefits for the body—including decreasing levels of the stress hormone cortisol and increasing oxytocin, the hormone involved in relationships that fosters feelings of well-being.

There are a few great ways to get started today and practice gratitude in your own life:

  • Write thank you notes
  • Keep a gratitude journal
  • Follow up with family and friends
  • Give back to your family, friends, and community
  • Pay kindnesses forward

Tip adapted from Mindful.org9

You can separate them with a word, yet they are mostly inseparable. What are they?

Last Week's Riddle: What starts with P and ends with E and has thousands of letters in it?

Answer: Post Office.

Niterói

Rio de Janeiro, Brasil

Footnotes And Sources

1. WSJ.com, January 9, 2026
2. Investing.com, January 9, 2026
3. CNBC.com, January 5, 2026
4. CNBC.com, January 6, 2026
5. CNBC.com, January 7, 2026
6. WSJ.com, January 8, 2026
7. CNBC.com, January 9, 2026
8. IRS.gov, August 18, 2025
9. Mindful.org, August 25, 2025

How to Protect Your Savings as Interest Rates Decline

Yield Optimization: How to Protect Your Savings as Interest Rates Decline in 2026

Think of it as a bonus for your future self – an opportunity you definitely want to seize.

Yield Optimization: With anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, searches have surged for locking in rates via Certificates of Deposit (CDs) and High-Yield Savings Accounts (HYSAs) before yields drop further.

As of January 2026, the era of peak interest rates is officially behind us. Following three consecutive rate cuts in late 2025, the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate now sits between 3.50% and 3.75%. With forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office and private analysts projecting further reductions toward 3.00% to 3.4% later this year, the window for locking in high yields is narrowing.

For savers, this shift marks a transition from "passive earning" to active "yield optimization." Here is how to navigate the 2026 interest rate environment to protect your wealth.

  1. Lock in Guaranteed Rates with CDs

The primary risk for savers in 2026 is reinvestment risk—the danger that when your current savings mature, the new available rates will be significantly lower.

  • The Strategy: Transition short-term cash into longer-term Certificates of Deposit (CDs). While top 6-month CD rates currently range from 4.10% to 4.30% APY, these are expected to drift lower as the Fed continues its easing cycle.
  • The Move: Consider a CD laddering strategy. By opening CDs with staggered maturity dates (e.g., 6 months, 12 months, and 2 years), you can lock in today's 4.00%+ yields for a portion of your portfolio while maintaining periodic liquidity.
  1. Optimize Liquidity with High-Yield Savings Accounts (HYSAs)

While CD rates are fixed, HYSA rates are variable and respond almost immediately to Federal Reserve policy.

  • The Current Landscape: Leading HYSAs still offer up to 5.00% APY in early 2026, which is more than 10x the national average of 0.39%.
  • The Move: If you are holding significant cash in a traditional "big bank" account (where rates often linger near 0.01%), moving to a top-tier digital bank like Varo, Newtek, or Axos can earn you thousands in additional interest this year. However, be prepared for these rates to dip if the Fed announces further cuts in the second quarter of 2026.
  1. Strategic Allocation: Beyond the Savings Account

For funds not needed for immediate emergencies, financial advisors are recommending a move into the "belly of the yield curve".

  • Fixed Income: Seek out intermediate-duration bonds or bond ETFs that can benefit from falling rates, as bond prices typically rise when yields fall.
  • Tax Efficiency: With the One Big Beautiful Bill Act making many tax provisions permanent, ensure your yield-generating assets are housed in tax-advantaged accounts like IRAs to minimize the impact of "tax drag" on your returns.

The Bottom Line for 2026

The "easy money" period of rising rates is over. In 2026, the most successful savers will be those who proactively lock in current yields before the Federal Reserve's projected move to a neutral stance.

If you have cash sitting in a standard savings account, now is the time to evaluate a 12-month CD or a top-performing HYSA. Protecting your yield today ensures your capital continues to grow even as the broader market environment cools.

For personalized advice on building a 2026 bond ladder or optimizing your cash holdings, schedule a consultation with our team today.

 

Research Financial Strategies is a private wealth management firm that was established in 1991 to provide fee-based investment advice.  We are a registered investment advisor with the Securities Exchange Commission. Research Financial Strategies specializes in providing financial advice using a proprietary investment methodology that leverages technical analysis to identify and protect our clients against stock market risk.
Research Financial Strategies provides families, individuals and foundations with an alternative to institutionalized and impersonalized money management. A privately-owned, independent, and financially secure firm, Research Financial Strategies pursues without conflict the greatest potential in each client’s wealth.

GET IN TOUCH

We are dedicated to helping you protect and manage your assets, prepare for retirement and life’s events, and develop a legacy that benefits your loved ones and future generations. As your financial partner, we listen and respond to your needs using clear, simple language. We offer personal service, seek to develop innovative strategies, and pledge to lead you with great care along the path to pursuing your goals.

We offer a free, no-obligation consultation  to discuss your financial future.

Weekly Market Commentary

The Markets

Lots of people are willing to predict what’s ahead.

If the past is prologue, few will be accurate. You don’t have to look far to find an example. In 2023, a majority of economists agreed recession was ahead. They were wrong. Tyler Cowen of Bloomberg explained:

“Last year at this time, 85 [percent] of economists in one poll predicted a recession this year — and that was an optimistic take compared to the 100 [percent] probability of a recession forecast two months earlier…And yet none of this has happened…most economists expect the U.S. to avoid a recession in 2024.”

Here are two predictions we’ve seen for 2026:

The U.S. stock market will move higher. During the last week of 2025, some on Wall Street were feeling quite enthusiastic about the year ahead.

“At the big banks and the boutique investment shops, an optimistic consensus has taken hold: the U.S. stock market will rally in 2026 for a fourth straight year, marking the longest winning streak in nearly two decades,” reported Alexandra Semenova and Sagarika Jaisinghani of Bloomberg. “Not a single one of the 21 prognosticators surveyed by Bloomberg News is predicting a decline.”

The U.S. stock market will move lower. Contrarian investors see high levels of bullishness are a red flag. When a significant majority of investors is optimistic, contrarians tend to be pessimistic, and vice versa. For example, Andy Serwer of Barron’s took a contrarian viewpoint last week:

“Unlike the usual prognosticators…I’m going to go out on a limb and say the market goes…down…I feel like the bull has been running on fumes a bit lately…between the administration messing with the economy’s biggest industry, healthcare, and brewing labor shortages, growth will surely be hindered.”

Despite abundant forecasts, it’s not possible to predict the future.

“In a market shaped by unknowable global forces (wars, trade conflicts, etc.) and great innovations (artificial intelligence, miracle weight loss drugs, etc.), it’s simply not credible for anyone to know where the index will land in 12 months to the exact index point. It would take tremendous skill and a great deal of luck to even guess where earnings are going in that period, but the mercurial nature of market sentiment complicates the exercise even further,” explained Jonathan Levin in Bloomberg Opinion.

Major U.S. stock indexes posted attractive returns for 2025, although share prices declined on the last day of the year, reported Alex Veiga of AP News. For the week, major indexes finished lower. Yields on most U.S. Treasuries moved higher over the week.

THINGS TO WATCH IN 2026. Global financial markets are like a Rube Goldberg machine – affected by a lot of factors in unpredictable ways. Bloomberg evaluated 700 calls from 60 financial institutions regarding the outlook for 2026. Sam Potter of Bloomberg reported on key themes identified in those calls, including:

· Artificial intelligence (AI). Optimism about AI is nearly universal, reported Potter. “Astronomical expenditure. Uncertain rates of return. Uneven pace of adoption. By now every firm on Wall Street is well aware of the risks surrounding the artificial intelligence boom. But when it comes to the year ahead, few advocate walking away from what they describe as a ‘revolutionary’ technology.”

· Interest rates (a.k.a. monetary policy). Financial markets already anticipate that global central banks will ease monetary policy, which means they will lower rates. The exception is the Bank of Japan. In the United States, “The [Federal Reserve] will come under increased political pressure to cut rates…but most firms think the market is currently pricing too many cuts,” reported Potter.

· Government spending and taxes (a.k.a. fiscal policy). “Governments continue to stimulate their economies. In the U.S., the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ includes tax cuts that should boost growth next year, while Germany has shifted from decades of fiscal restraint to a new era of significant borrowing and investment,” wrote a company cited by Bloomberg.

· Tariffs and trade. There was some uncertainty about tariffs. “Although it’s possible the Supreme Court could strike down parts of the Trump administration’s tariff regime, the growing dependence on tariff revenue suggests the authorities will find ways to keep barriers in place,” opined one of the institutions.

· Inflation. Overall, institutions expect inflation to remain sticky, although some say it might move lower “Inflation likely to remain above Fed's target…but could drift down if one-off price increases from tariffs wane or economic activity weakens,” wrote one.

· Geopolitics. As global tensions and crises continue, the unified global financial system may fragment, causing friction in the free market system. Potter cautioned that the overall view of institutions was, “…never underestimate the potential for geopolitical or trade-related shocks.”

· Depreciating U.S. dollar. When the value of the U.S. dollar falls relative to other countries’ currencies, it can make investments outside the U.S. more attractive than those inside the United States, stated an institution in the survey.

It’s interesting to note that government debt and deficits were not often mentioned. One firm stated, “Although there are many encouraging signs for the year ahead, there are also clear risks on the horizon, and investors should prepare for inevitable market pullbacks. Stocks are expensive. Sticky inflation and mounting government debt in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere are also cause for concern.”

If there are any issues you would like to discuss, please let us know.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“Write it on your heart

that every day is the best day in the year.

He is rich who owns the day, and no one owns the day

who allows it to be invaded with fret and anxiety.

 

Finish every day and be done with it.

You have done what you could.

Some blunders and absurdities, no doubt crept in.

Forget them as soon as you can, tomorrow is a new day;

begin it well and serenely, with too high a spirit

to be cumbered with your old nonsense.

 

This new day is too dear,

with its hopes and invitations,

to waste a moment on the yesterdays.”

—Ralph Waldo Emerson, Writer and poet

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