Weekly Market Commentary – January 23, 2017

The Markets

Markets weren’t quite sure which direction to move last week.

The Trump rally, which lost some steam, gained momentum early in the week. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index finished January 19, the day before the inauguration, with its biggest election-to-inauguration gain since Bill Clinton won a second term in 1996, according to MarketWatch, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained within striking distance of 20,000, according to Yahoo!Finance.

On Friday, President Trump delivered his inauguration address, but it didn’t resolve the uncertainty that has been nagging investors. The speech mentioned infrastructure activity, brushed over stimulus spending and tax cuts, and leaned heavily into protectionism. Mr. Trump said:

America will start winning again, winning like never before. We will bring back our jobs. We will bring back our borders. We will bring back our wealth. And we will bring back our dreams. We will build new roads, and highways, and bridges, and airports, and tunnels, and railways all across our wonderful nation. We will get our people off of welfare and back to work – rebuilding our country with American hands and American labor. We will follow two simple rules; buy American and hire American.

The market response to Friday’s speech was subdued, according to Financial Times:

“…with U.S. stocks edging higher, Treasuries putting in mixed performances and the dollar easing back against its main rivals. Oil prices rose sharply amid hopes that producers would show compliance to a global deal to cut output. Gold initially struggled for traction but held above the $1,200 an ounce mark.

All major U.S. stock markets finished the week slightly lower, and 10-year Treasury yields finished the week slightly higher.

Data as of 01/20/2017

1-Week

YTD1-Year3-Year5-Year

10-Year

Standard & Poor’s (Domestic Stocks)

-0.2%

1.5%22.2%7.2%11.5%

4.8%

Dow Jones Global ex-US

-0.5

2.518.2-2.62.3

-1.1

10-Year Treasury Note (Yield Only)

2.5

N/A2.02.82.0

4.8

Gold (per ounce)

0.9

3.69.0-1.5-6.2

6.5

Bloomberg Commodity Index-0.21.021.3-10.9-9.0-5.8
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index0.70.818.811.811.34.7

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

TREMENDOUS. AWE-INSPIRING. GROUNDBREAKING. OVERWHELMING.

Those were just a few of the adjectives used to describe 2017’s Consumer Electronics Show (CES), which showcased all kinds of new technology. This year, gadgets and gizmos included wall-sized televisions that are as thin as house keys, computers that scan 2D and 3D objects, and beds that read biometric clues to warm your feet and reduce snoring. Here are a few notable trends that captured media attention:

Smart cars. Black Enterprise reported, “If there was one, star attraction at CES this year, arguably it was vehicles…Artificial intelligence is the power behind the new crop of autonomous, assistive vehicles. These cars not only self-drive, they can read your emotions, make snap decisions in the presence of danger on the road, and can even tell you about the flora and fauna at your destination site.”

Smarter homes. CNET Magazine wrote, “For…years, we’ve been saying the “real” smart home is just around the corner. But at CES 2017, it finally felt more tangible than ever before…Whether it’s lighting, DVRs, refrigerators, robot vacuums, home security systems, phones, or cars – to name just a few – the list of stuff you’ll be able to interact with…is set to explode in the coming months. And with such networked integration now becoming the rule rather than the exception in major appliances…there’s no turning back.”

Even smarter routers. Popular Science liked a new Wi-Fi router that “…rather than protecting each of your devices individually…will use…software to protect up to 20 laptops, computers, tablets, or smartphones – and an unlimited number of IoT devices – in one fell swoop…You’ll be able to monitor…all devices connected to the router, through a smartphone app…You can even tell the router to turn off internet access to certain devices – or devices linked to a particular profile – at certain times. So, you can make sure little Johnny isn’t up all night watching YouTube videos on any of his devices (except for his phone, maybe, but that’s your own dang fault for getting the kid a data plan).”

Of course, trends in technology are just one American story. Another trend, in some states, is the growing popularity of rural, sustainable, off-the-grid properties, according to NPR. “Despite the remoteness of these homes, they’re not backwoods shacks with sagging metal roofs. Some… listings sell for more than $1 million if there’s a lot of land and if water rights are included. The one with the helicopter pad is a spiffy, two-story log home with a wraparound porch.”

 

Weekly Focus – Think About It

When I dare to be powerful, to use my strength in the service of my vision, then it becomes less and less important whether I am afraid. –Audre Lorde, African American writer

Weekly Market Commentary – January 17, 2017

The Markets

Around the world in a few paragraphs…

The post-election adrenaline rush may be over in the United States. Barron’s reported:

The new year began with high hopes, with the bulls expecting the rally that began with Donald J. Trump’s election victory to continue into 2017, while the bears salivated at the opportunity presented by a market that had gotten way ahead of itself. Instead, the market has failed to break up or down…At his press conference last week, Trump covered a lot of ground…But he didn’t cover the three subjects investors especially wanted to hear about – namely taxes, fiscal policy, and infrastructure. As a result, some of the primary beneficiaries of the Trump trade stalled: The S&P 500 Financials index declined 0.1 percent, while the energy sector dropped 1.9 percent.

Investors in the Asia Pacific region were less optimistic last week, too. Disappointing economic and international trade data from China unsettled markets, as did uncertainty about the global trade policies the new U.S. administration will pursue. National indices for Australia, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines finished the week lower.

In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 gained for the 14th consecutive day, closing at an all-time high for the 12th time in as many days, according to Trading Economics. Bloomberg reported European shares eked out a gain for the third straight week. Financials led the way after a large industry firm reported better-than-expected profits, inciting optimism about fourth quarter’s earnings season.

Data as of 01/13/2017

1-Week

YTD1-Year3-Year5-Year

10-Year

Standard & Poor’s (Domestic Stocks)

-0.1%

1.6%20.3%7.7%12.0%

4.7%

Dow Jones Global ex-US

1.0

2.912.2-2.33.2

-0.9

10-Year Treasury Note (Yield Only)

2.4

N/A2.12.81.9

4.8

Gold (per ounce)

1.2

2.79.4-1.6-6.2

6.6

Bloomberg Commodity Index-0.2-0.214.0-11.3-9.3-5.7
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index-1.80.114.212.311.74.7

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

 

Burgernomics: Here’s A Big Mac Index Update

The Economist invented the Big Mac index in 1986 as an entertaining way to assess whether currencies were at the “correct” levels. The index reflects the idea that countries’ exchange rates should balance so the same product (in this case, a hamburger) costs the same in two different countries when the price is denominated in the same currency. After updating the index on January 11, 2017, The Economist reported the “all-meaty” dollar was stronger than usual:

The dollar is now trading at a 14-year high in trade-weighted terms. Emerging-world economies may struggle to pay off dollar-denominated debts. American firms may find themselves at a disadvantage against foreign competition. And, American tourists will get more burgers for their buck in Europe.

A Big Mac in the United States cost about $5.06 last week. In the Euro area, the price was about $4.06 and in Britain $3.73. A Big Mac is cheapest in Russia ($2.15) and most expensive in Switzerland ($6.35). Here are the prices of a Big Mac (a.k.a. the Maharaja Mac in India) in a few other locales:

Norway           $5.67

Sweden           $5.26

Brazil               $5.12

Japan               $3.26

China               $2.83

India                $2.49

Mexico            $2.23

It should be noted the Big Mac index is not a perfect measurement tool. The price of a burger should be less in countries with lower labor costs and more in countries with higher labor costs. When prices are adjusted for labor (using gross domestic product per person), the Brazilian real is the world’s most overvalued currency, followed by Pakistan and Thailand. The most undervalued currencies include Egypt, Malaysia, and Hong Kong.

 

Weekly Focus – Think About It

The charm of fishing is that it is the pursuit of what is elusive but attainable, a perpetual series of occasions of hope. –John Buchan, Former Governor General of Canada

Sources:

  1. http://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-grow-weary-of-the-trump-trade-1484381416?mod=BOL_hp_we_columns (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/01-17-17_Barrons-Stocks_Grow_Weary_of_the_Trump_Trade-Footnote_1.pdf)
  2. http://www.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/9_3063-economicCalendar.html (Click on U.S. & Intl Recaps, “Still unknowns,” scroll down to Global Stock Market Recap chart) (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/01-17-17_Barrons-Global_Stock_Market_Recap-Footnote_2.pdf)
  3. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/stock-market
  4. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-13/european-stocks-rise-as-carmakers-health-care-shares-rebound
  5. http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/01-17-17_TheEconomist-The_Big_Mac_Index-Footnote_5.pdf)
  6. http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21714392-emerging-market-currencies-and-euro-look-undervalued-against-dollar-our-big (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/01-17-17_TheEconomist-Our_Big_Mac_Index_of_Global_Currencies_Reflects_the_Dollars_Strength-Footnote_6.pdf)
  7. http://www.saltstrong.com/articles/funny-fishing-quotes/

Weekly Market Commentary – January 9, 2017

…And, they’re off! Bullish sentiment helped world equity markets get off to a fast start last week. Just name a country or region – developed markets, emerging markets, the United States, Latin America, Asia, Europe, the United Kingdom – and it’s likely the area’s benchmark index may have been up for the week. Not everyone was in the bullish camp, though. Barron’s reported:

The market optimism is understandable. After a long spell of zero interest rates, a baton transfer from monetary manipulation to fiscal stimulus and pro-growth chutzpah can be an exciting regime change…But investors’ hopes could be misplaced. It would be one thing if there were shovel-ready infrastructure projects or proposed tax cuts on the table that could quickly boost spending. Instead, Republicans propose, for example, changing the basis for corporate tax from location of operations to location of sales. The aim is to encourage domestic production and exports, but the plan could hurt companies that import materials or goods. Will big importers like [big box stores] pass the tax hit onto consumers by raising prices?

For contrarians, record highs for U.S. stock markets (both the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and NASDAQ closed at new highs last week) and strong bullish sentiment (Barron’s reported, “The Investors Intelligence survey of newsletter writers showed the bullish herd swelling above 60 percent…”) are red flags, signaling an inflection point may be near. No matter which camp you fall into, there is a lot of uncertainty. Which policies will the new administration pursue? Will China’s growth slow more quickly than expected? How quickly will the Federal Reserve raise rates? Will interest rates continue to move higher? Will a stronger dollar negatively affect emerging markets? In the face of so much uncertainty, it’s important to be diversified.

Data as of 01/06/2017

1-Week

YTD1-Year3-Year5-Year

10-Year

Standard & Poor’s (Domestic Stocks)

1.7%

1.7%14.4%7.6%12.3%

4.9%

Dow Jones Global ex-US

2.0

2.08.3-2.43.3

-0.9

10-Year Treasury Note (Yield Only)

2.4

N/A2.23.02.0

4.7

Gold (per ounce)

1.5

1.57.7-1.9-6.2

6.8

Bloomberg Commodity Index-0.2-0.214.0-11.3-9.3-5.7
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index2.02.010.613.212.45.4

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.  

Are you thinking about starting a business?

Small businesses in the United States employed 56.8 million people or 48 percent of the private workforce in 2013 (the latest numbers available), according to the U.S. Small Business Administration. That’s pretty remarkable when you realize that 34 percent of small businesses employ fewer than 100 people. If you’re thinking of starting a business, the AARP suggests you carefully consider legal and tax issues, including:

  • Business structure. Will you be a sole proprietor? Or will you establish a corporation, limited liability company, or partnership? The structure of your business will affect taxes, liability, and other matters.
  • Many cities and states require a new business to register, apply for a business license, and pay an annual fee to do business.
  • Tax payments. Talk with a tax professional to determine whether you need to make quarterly tax payments. Also, be aware that people who work for themselves pay both the employer and employee portions of Social Security and Medicare taxes. You’ll want to factor that in when deciding pricing for products or services.
  • In many cases, your business will need its own bank account and credit cards. You’ll also need a system for tracking business receipts and expenditures. Investing in business accounting software can make recordkeeping a lot easier.
  • Contracts specify deadlines, terms of payment, and other particulars, ensuring everyone shares the same understanding and expectations. If your client asks you to sign a contract or asks you to provide a contract, consult with your attorney.
  • Liability insurance. Professional liability insurance protects you if you’re ever sued, and some clients may require you to have coverage. Talk with your financial or insurance professional to determine what type of coverage you may need.

Of course, when you work for yourself, it’s critical to set money aside for retirement. Contact your financial and/or tax professional to discuss options that might work for you.   Weekly Focus – Think About It

We have neglected the truth that a good farmer is a craftsman of the highest order, a kind of artist. –Wendell Berry, American novelist and poet

Sources:

  1. http://www.barrons.com/articles/cheering-and-fearing-the-post-trump-rally-1483767229?mod=BOL_hp_we_columns (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/01-09-17_Barrons-Cheering_and_Fearing_the_Post-Trump_Rally-Footnote_1.pdf)
  2. http://www.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/9_3063-economicCalendar.html?mod=BOL_Nav_MAR_hps (Click on U.S. & Intl Recaps, then on “Equities rise to the occasion”) (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/01-09-17_Barrons-Global_Stock_Market_Recap-Footnote_2.pdf)
  3. http://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets-latam-idUSL1N1EW1QN
  4. http://www.barrons.com/articles/no-cigar-yet-dow-stops-short-of-20-000-1483767234 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/01-09-17_Barrons-No_Cigar_Yet-Dow_Stops_Short_of_20000-Footnote_4.pdf)
  5. https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/advocacy/all_profiles_10_18_16.pdf
  6. http://www.aarp.org/money/taxes/info-2016/tax-issues-for-independent-workers.html?intcmp=AE-MON-MAIN-TAXS-SPOT2
  7. http://cdn.modernfarmer.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/berry2.jpg

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Weekly Market Commentary – January 3, 2018

The Markets

What a difference a year makes! At the start of 2016, investors were rather pessimistic and risk averse, preferring bonds to stocks. By the end of the year, they were quite optimistic and preferred stocks to bonds. In between, markets traveled a bumpy road.

During January of last year, few investors imagined we would be where we are today. Markets started 2016 in a tailspin with investors worried about slower growth in China, U.S. economic strength, oil price declines, and the possibility of a global recession.

During the first 10 trading days of 2016, U.S. stock markets got off to their worst start for any year on record, reported Financial Times. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) Index lost about $1.4 trillion in value and every major sector in the index was in the red, except for utilities.

The sharp drop stunned investors and many shifted assets from global stocks into bonds. In late January 2016, CNN Money reported:

Investors yanked $2.9 billion from U.S. stocks last week, marking the seventh week of outflows out of the past eight, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Emerging markets, which have been in turmoil for months, experienced a 13th straight week of outflows of $1.2 billion. Money is fleeing to safe-haven government bonds.**

Investor sentiment was near its all-time low. On January 14, 2016, just 17.9 percent of participants in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Investor Sentiment Survey said they were bullish. The all-time low is 12 percent and the long-term average for bullishness is 38.39 percent. Clearly, investors were not feeling optimistic about stock markets.

A specialist cited by Time.com discussed market performance and investor sentiment in the context of the AAII Survey:

Historically…the S&P 500 has advanced 7.7 percent in the six months after reaching this level of bearishness. By contrast, stocks have historically gained only 2.7 percent in the six months following the most bullish readings among individual investors.

As it turned out, the S&P 500 Index may have pushed the historic average higher during 2016. Barron’s reported the Index finished the year up 9.5 percent and returned 12 percent when dividends were included.

 

Investors didn’t enjoy a smooth ride last year, though. Late in June, the United Kingdom shocked the world when it voted to leave the European Union. Financial Times reported global markets lost $3 trillion during two days of brutal trading, including “…a nearly $1tn loss for the S&P 500, or the third worst two-day drop ever in value terms.”

Markets recovered relatively quickly after the Brexit drop. However, it looked like another rout was in the works in November as the U.S. presidential election votes rolled in. The initial reaction of global markets to Donald Trump’s election was panic; however, optimism soon prevailed and U.S. markets rallied on hopes the President-elect’s yet-to-be-defined policies would bolster growth and positively affect the global economy.

The expectation of stronger growth, along with an anticipated December rate hike by the Federal Reserve, pushed bond yields higher and investors moved assets out of bonds and into stocks. Barron’s reported:

The 30-year bond climbed 0.3 percentage point to 2.94 percent, resulting in a 6.3 percent decline in price. (Bond prices move inversely to yields.)…It wasn’t just Treasuries. Municipal bonds, corporate bonds, and preferred securities all fell. Bloomberg estimates $1 trillion in the value of bonds evaporated last week after the election.

At the end of 2016, investor sentiment had risen well above the long-term average. More than 45.5 percent of participants in the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey were feeling bullish. Investors weren’t the only ones feeling optimistic. The Investors Intelligence survey of investment advisors found the bulls (59.8) outnumbered the bears (19.6) quite significantly in late December. The Bull/Bear Ratio was at 3.05, according to Yardeni Research.

The ratio is considered by many to be a contrarian indicator. When the Bull/Bear Ratio is at 1.0 or lower, and when it is at 3.0 or higher, we may be near a turning point for stock markets, according to Investing Answers and The New York Times.

Data as of 12/30/16

1-Week

YTD1-Year3-Year5-Year

10-Year

Standard & Poor’s (Domestic Stocks)

-1.1%

9.5%8.5%6.7%12.2%

4.7%

Dow Jones Global ex-US

1.0

1.81.3-3.52.9

-1.3

10-Year Treasury Note (Yield Only)

2.5

N/A2.33.01.9

4.7

Gold (per ounce)

2.5

9.19.4-1.3-5.9

6.1

Bloomberg Commodity Index1.411.412.1-11.7-9.1-5.9
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index1.68.97.912.612.05.0

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

*The year-to-date and one-year returns are different. The year-to-date return reflects performance from 12/30/2015 to 12/30/2016. The one-year return reflects performance from 12/31/2015 to 12/30/2016.

** US Treasuries may be considered “safe haven” investments but do carry some degree of risk including interest rate, credit, and market risk.  They are guaranteed by the US government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.

 

How Important Is A College Degree?

At the University of Baltimore 2016 Midyear Commencement, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen shared her thoughts about the importance of college:

Economists are not certain about many things. But we are quite certain that a college diploma or an advanced degree is a key to economic success. Those with a college degree are more likely to find a job, keep a job, have higher job satisfaction, and earn a higher salary. The advantage in earnings is large. College grads’ annual earnings last year were, on average, 70 percent higher than those with only a high school diploma. Back in 1980, the difference was only 20 percent. The gap in earnings is significant only a few years after graduation – almost $18,000 a year, according to some recent data. Beyond these advantages, research also shows that a college or graduate degree typically leads to a happier, healthier, and longer life.

There appears to be significant benefits to attending college. However, Aon Hewitt recently suggested there also may be some drawbacks, especially for students who borrow to pay for their degrees. Aon’s survey of 2,000 U.S. workers found 44 percent of Millennials, 26 percent of Gen X, and 13 percent of Baby Boomers are repaying student loans which, “…can have a long-term impact on workers’ financial future.”

The survey found just 71 percent of workers with student loans were participating in employer-provided retirement plans as compared to 77 percent of workers without student loans.

 

Weekly Focus – Think About It

In other words, I claim, if we really want to improve our judgment as individuals and as societies, what we need most is not more instruction in logic or rhetoric or probability or economics, even though those things are quite valuable…We need to learn how to feel intrigued instead of defensive when we encounter some information that contradicts our beliefs. –Julia Galef, Co-founder of the Center for Applied Rationality

Sources:

  1. http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/01/investing/stocks-markets-january-93-percent-lost/
  2. http://time.com/money/4182371/stock-market-dow-crash-reasons/
  3. https://www.ft.com/content/9e642f0a-bdc4-11e5-9fdb-87b8d15baec2
  4. http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results
  5. http://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-off-1-for-week-up-10-for-2016-1483167529?mod=BOL_hp_we_columns
  6. https://www.ft.com/content/91dd01b6-3caf-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0
  7. https://www.ft.com/content/a606181e-a7fb-11e6-8b69-02899e8bd9d1
  8. http://www.barrons.com/articles/moves-to-make-as-the-bond-market-sinks-1478931249
  9. https://www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockbullbear.pdf (Page 5 of report) 
  10. http://www.investinganswers.com/financial-dictionary/stock-market/bullbear-ratio-1775
  11. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/03/your-money/the-dangers-of-a-stock-market-melt-up.html?_r=0
  12. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20161219a.htm
  13. http://ir.aon.com/about-aon/investor-relations/investor-news/news-release-details/2016/Student-Loans-Hurting-Workers-Ability-to-Save-for-Retirement/default.aspx
  14. https://www.ted.com/talks/julia_galef_why_you_think_you_re_right_even_if_you_re_wrong/transcript?language=en
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