March 2025 - Research Financial Strategies

Weekly Market Insights | Rough Week for Stocks, with Slight Friday Rally

by Jim Streight | Mar 17, 2025 | Weekly Stock Market Commentary

Investors endured another volatile, whipsaw week as ongoing trade talks and White House comments about the economy unsettled investors.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 2.27 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.43 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.07 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 0.95 percent.^1,2

Markets Stem Losses

Stocks opened the week lower as investors reacted to the president’s weekend comments about the economy. Then, U.S. and Canadian leaders traded additional tariff threats, riling up anxious investors.^3,4

Stocks rebounded midweek after a cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report eased growing inflation concerns.⁵

The broad market slide resumed Thursday, but better-than-expected February wholesale inflation data helped buffer losses. The S&P 500 ended Thursday in correction territory—10 percent below its February 19 record close.⁶

Markets pushed higher Friday, clawing back some losses for the week. News of progress in resolving the federal government shutdown soothed investors’ nerves.⁷

Sunny Side ‘Down’

Fewer CPI constituents garner more attention from consumers right now than the price of eggs. Avian bird flu—and the subsequent culling of millions of chickens—was primarily to blame for prices rising 15 percent in January and another 10 percent in February. While recent evidence suggests prices have dropped, the cost of eggs remains a sticky issue—even though prices of many other items have risen just as much, if not more.^8,9

So why do consumers appear to be overly uneasy?

One theory is that eggs symbolize something more significant. Not only are eggs a critical, inexpensive source of protein and nutrients for millions of consumers, but they are also a core part of many other foods made at home or mass-produced. For that reason, eggs are a mental proxy for how consumers believe the broader economy is doing.¹⁰

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Retail Sales. Business Inventories. Homebuilder Confidence Index.

Tuesday: Housing Starts and Permits. Import & Export Prices. Industrial Production. Capacity Utilization. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting—Day 1.

Wednesday: FOMC meeting—Day 2. Fed Announcement/ Fed Chair Press Conference.

Thursday: Existing Home Sales. Weekly Jobless Claims. Leading Indicators.

Friday: Federal Reserve Official John Williams speaks.

^{Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; March 13, 2025}^{The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Wednesday: General Mills, Inc. (GIS)

Thursday: Nike, Inc. (NKE), Micron Technology, Inc. (MU), FedEx Corporation (FDX)

^{Source: Zacks, March 13, 2025.}^{Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it.”

– Warren Buffett

If You Didn’t Receive Your W-2

If you don’t receive your W-2 or 1099 by January 31 of the year, you are filing taxes, or if the information on these forms is incorrect, contact your employer/payer. If you still haven’t received the forms you need by the end of February, you can contact the IRS at 800-829-1040, and they may be able to help.

When you contact the IRS, they will also reach out to the employer/payer for the information you need, and they will also send you Form 4852, a substitute for a W-2 or 1099. To do this, they will ask for your employer/payer’s name, address, and phone number (as well as your information).

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS¹¹

How to Make Hummus

Hummus is a dip made primarily from garbanzo beans and is great on pita bread, veggies, or chicken. Here’s how to make hummus:

In a food processor or blender, combine ¼ cup tahini (sesame paste) with ¼ cup fresh lemon juice—process for one minute.
Add 2 tablespoons olive oil, ½ teaspoon ground cumin, ½ teaspoon of salt, and 1 minced garlic clove to the mix and process until well-blended in 30-second increments (about a minute).
Add half a can (¾ cup) of rinsed chickpeas and process for 1 minute. Then, add the other half of the can and process another 1-2 minutes.
If your hummus still has bits of chickpeas, process it a bit more while slowly adding 2-3 tablespoons of cold water.

Tip adapted from Inspired Taste¹²

I twist, I turn, but I don’t have curves. You can twist me to fix me, but you may throw me into disarray in the process. Hours later, you may cast me away. What am I?

Last week’s riddle: What binds two people together yet touches only one person at a time?
Answer: An individual wedding ring.

Lake Winnipesaukee in Autumn
New Hampshire, USA

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, March 14, 2025}

^{2. Investing.com, March 14, 2025}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, March 10, 2025}

^{4. CNBC.com, March 11, 2025}

^{5. CNBC.com, March 12, 2025}

^{6. CNBC.com, March 12, 2025}

^{7. The Wall Street Journal, March 14, 2025}

^{8. MarketWatch.com, March 12, 2025}

^{9. Newsweek, March 11, 2025}

^{10. MarketWatch.com, March 10, 2025}

^{11. IRS.gov, April 3, 2024}

^{12. Inspired Taste, October 3, 2024}

Weekly Market Commentary

by Jim Streight | Mar 13, 2025 | Carson

The Markets

What do weather and investing have in common?

From 1991 to 2020, the average temperature of the United States was 54.7° Fahrenheit. Of course, that doesn’t mean the temperature in every state on every day was 54.7°F. The weather varied dramatically from place to place and month to month.

The same is true of investment averages. At the end of February, the average annual total return* for the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index over the past 10 years was 12.98 percent. That doesn’t mean the S&P 500 returned 12.98 percent every year – it didn’t. The index’s total return varied dramatically from year to year.

The stock market doesn’t provide level returns. In some years returns are positive, and in other years returns are negative. After two years, of stellar returns from U.S. stocks, the market has been experiencing a pull back.

Last week, U.S. financial markets were volatile. “A roller-coaster week for markets ended on that same note, with stocks whipsawing as traders tried to make sense of a myriad of headlines around the economy, tariffs and geopolitical developments. Just minutes after a slide that drove the S&P 500 down over 1 [percent], the gauge staged an ‘oversold bounce’ as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the economy is fine. The Nasdaq 100 briefly breached the threshold of a correction. Bonds fell,” reported Rita Nazareth of Bloomberg.

In contrast, some European stock markets moved higher last week. “President Donald Trump’s drive to shake up the world order is creating some surprising winners. As the U.S. stock market reels from tariff fears, German stocks are surging because the government has committed to almost $1 trillion in new spending on infrastructure and defense…The sea change in policy is creating a giddy optimism in German markets not seen in decades,” reported Brian Swint of Barron’s.

The divergence in performance brings home the value of a diversified portfolio.

When markets are volatile, remain confident and resist the impulse to react to short-term performance. The assets in your portfolio were carefully chosen to help you reach your financial goals. Unless your goals and risk tolerance have changed, your asset allocation shouldn’t. The weight of evidence accumulated over previous decades supports the idea that staying the course – holding a well-allocated and diversified portfolio and rebalancing periodically – is a sound way to pursue long-term financial goals.

Last week, major U.S. stock indices finished the week lower despite a rebound on Friday. U.S. Treasury yields were mixed last week with yields for shorter maturities dropping while yields on longer maturities rose.

THE SPOTLIGHT WAS ON THE REAL FEDERAL RESERVE OF ATLANTA. You may have seen a headline or two about GDPNow last week. It’s the Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed)’s unofficial economic growth forecasting model – and it’s been delivering twists and turns worthy of a reality TV show.

GDP, or gross domestic product, is the value of all goods and services produced in the United States. “The percentage that GDP grew (or shrank) from one period to another is an important way for Americans to gauge how their economy is doing. The United States’ GDP is also watched around the world as an economic barometer,” reported the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

At the end of January, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimated the United States economy would expand by 2.9 percent in the first quarter of 2025. Since then, the estimate has moved sharply lower. Last week, GDPNow projected the U.S. economy will shrink in the first quarter, contracting by 2.4 percent.

It’s a remarkable swing that captured a lot of media attention.

How should investors weight this bit of unofficial data? Probably not too heavily because GDPNow can be volatile. “These estimates are published regularly as new economic data is released…There were 11 [releases] in February alone. Friday’s [February 28’s] shock reading of -1.5% was led by a record-high $153 billion trade deficit in January, most likely as firms front-loaded imports ahead of tariffs, and Monday’s decline was driven by soft manufacturing activity. There’s every chance -2.8% turns into a positive reading in a few weeks,” reported Jamie McGeever of Reuters.

GDP growth estimate 1Q2025 annualized (after inflation)	Atlanta Fed GDPNow	New York Fed Staff Nowcast	Dallas Fed Weekly Economic Index
Week of January 26	2.9%	2.9%	2.4%
February 2	3.9	3.1	2.5
February 9	2.3	3.0	2.5
February 16	2.3	3.0	2.4
February 23	-1.5	2.9	2.2
March 2	-2.4	2.7	NA

Other Federal Reserve Banks also have economic growth forecasts. These models also have been moving lower, but they haven’t shot into negative territory like GDPNow. The New York Nowcast dropped from an estimated 2.94 to an estimated 2.67 percent for the first quarter, and the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index moved from 2.4 percent to 2.2 percent.

The average absolute error of final GDPNow forecasts is 0.77 percentage points. The final forecast is expected in April.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don’t know the odds. It’s a big difference.”
– Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize-winning psychologist

Weekly Market Insights | Tariffs Take Markets for a Wild Ride

by Jim Streight | Mar 10, 2025 | Weekly Stock Market Commentary

Under the Hood

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) published fresh manufacturing data on Monday. Although headline numbers were decent, a closer look revealed that new orders dropped in January from a years-long high into correction territory while deliveries and prices paid jumped.⁸