Big Change: No More Pennies

No more passing them by when you see one on the sidewalk. Forget about wasting a couple by putting them in your loafers. And don’t even consider throwing them into a wishing well.

The Treasury Department has announced that it is dropping the penny. Officials say the last new pennies will enter circulation in 2026.

Long term—and we’re talking many, many years—don’t expect there to be much difference with your “small change.” After all, there are 114 billion pennies in circulation today. That means roughly 900 for each of the 128 million families in the U.S.

Why the change? Cost, mostly. It costs 3.7 cents to make a penny. Which means the nickel could be next. It costs about 13.8 cents to make those. 

“No More Pennies Could Spark Higher Inflation,” read one of my favorite headlines when the Treasury announced the news.

Some inflation hawks concluded that businesses will start to “round up” prices immediately, putting upward pressure on costs. But that seems like a hasty conclusion. When you dig into the details, you see that nearly 70 percent of in-store payments occur with credit or debit cards. Another big chunk utilizes digital wallets. So, not many retailers are handing back coins to customers.

In fact, I went to a baseball game last week, and the ballpark proudly boasted, “It’s a cashless venue.” Each concession only accepts cards or digital wallets for payment. 

If anyone should be upset about this penny business, it’s Abraham Lincoln. He’s no longer going to be on a coin and a bill. That club now includes only two presidents!  

Sources:

CNBC.com, May 22, 2025. “Get ready to round up: Treasury set to halt penny production”

Finance.Yahoo.com, March 29, 2025. “10 of the Most Valuable Pennies”

USMint.gov, 2025. “Coins – Penny

Capitaloneshopping.com, May 27, 2025. “Cash vs Credit Card Spending Statistics”

MLB.com, 2025. “Information Guides”

This Memorial Day….

Memorial Day is so much more than a long weekend.

It is a chance for us to remember those who gave all for this great nation and the freedoms it offers.

This Memorial Day, we pay tribute to the lives and legacies of those who made the ultimate sacrifice in serving our country, and we honor their courage.

Wishing you and yours a peaceful Memorial Day.

Stock Pullbacks Are Helpful, Not Hurtful

Do me a favor: print the chart in this email and pin it to your wall. I want you to have a constant reminder that stock prices see pullbacks several times during the year.

It’s a normal, healthy part of the investing cycle. Is it unsettling? Very! But when prices turn volatile, I want you to slip into your “Been there, done that” t-shirt.

The second half of February was difficult for investors–and the first part of March was not much better either. There were waves of unsettling news about tariffs, inflation, economic growth, and geopolitical events. 

But was the selling unexpected? Not really. Since 1950, history shows that in post-election years, February has been the worst month for stock prices.

(Spoiler alert: Post-1950, June, August, and September also show poorly in post-election years. So mark your calendar.)

It’s important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Stock prices will fluctuate as market conditions change. So, while we can look to history for trends, it’s uncertain how the rest of 2025 will unfold. 

But if you are getting anxious watching the daily price moves on Wall Street, please call me. I can tell you how I manage the ups and downs.

Carson Investment Research, February 5, 2024

Sunny Side Down: Egg Prices Fall

Forget the Fed frenzy and take a timeout from tariff talk. Let’s focus on what’s really scrambling the markets right now: egg prices.

After reaching an all-time high of $8.17 a dozen in early March, prices have trended lower and may drop below $3 in the coming weeks. What’s behind the sudden fall? The three main reasons are weaker consumer demand, the bird flu coming under control, and ramped-up supply.

So, when will you start to see relief at the checkout line? Soon perhaps. However, grocery store prices remain unpredictable because retailers are still a bit concerned about supply chains.

In recent months, economists have paid more attention to the price of eggs than to other constituents of the Consumer Price Index.

Why have egg prices become a proxy for inflation? 

One theory is that eggs symbolize something bigger about the U.S. economy. Not only are eggs a critical, inexpensive source of protein and nutrients for millions of consumers, but they are also a core part of many other foods made at home or mass-produced. So, eggs have become a tangible symbol of how consumers believe the broader economy is doing.

The Inside Coop: Chicken prices have remained stable despite the bird flu because broilers (chicken raised for meat) tend to have a shorter lifespan than egg-laying hens (6-8 weeks compared to 2 years). Shorter life spans mean flocks are less susceptible to outbreaks, and supply-and-demand issues can be resolved quickly.

I hope today’s email provided some insights into the egg market. It’s not often such a small part of our daily life that takes center stage in economics. 

Sources:
TradingEconomics.com, March 19, 2025. “Eggs US”
TheHill.com, February 13, 2025. “Egg prices are surging, so why are chicken prices stable?”

Hot Dog Inflation at the Ballpark

When you hear “hot dog” and “inflation” in the same sentence, you might think of those supermarket franks that plump up when cooked. In this case, we’re talking about the original dogs of the ballpark, a cultural touchstone of America’s pastime.

The average price of a Major League Baseball (MLB) hot dog across the 30 North American ballparks is $5.99, and that’s for the lowest-priced hot dog offered at the parks. That average covers a wide range, including the $8.39 “Colossal Dog” offered at Oakland Coliseum, home of the Athletics, and a $2.99 option at Chase Field, where the Arizona Diamondbacks play.1

You’ll need to grab your passport if you’re looking for the cheapest dog in the MLB. When you take in a Toronto Blue Jays home game, you can find a $2.55 hot dog at Roger Centre.1

From the chart, you can see that seven of the top ten highest-priced dogs are for teams that may not make the playoffs. On the other hand, eight of the ten least expensive dogs are at stadiums where teams are fighting for a playoff spot.

While consumers are used to seeing a mark-up on concessions at movie theaters, concerts, and sporting events, MLB offers a relatively inexpensive option compared to the National Football League (NFL).

The average cost for a family of four is $180.54, which figures tickets, parking, beverages, and (of course) hot dogs. That range is higher in some cities, over $320 in Los Angeles (the Dodgers) or Boston (the Red Sox), and lower in others. A family can see a game for under $140 in a handful of lower-end markets: the Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies, Cleveland Guardians, Kansas City Royals, and Chicago White Sox.2

The reason for the boosted prices? Concessions play a big part in maintaining the grounds and paying for the teams. Dodgers pitcher Shohei Ohtani inked a $700 million, 10-year contract with the team. That means the Dodgers hope you show up to the game hungry!2

As the season winds down, I hope you have enjoyed a few games, whether at the ballpark or at home. At my house, the dogs always come dressed the way I like them and are considerably less expensive!

1. Sports Business Journal, May 6, 2024
2. The Street, April 12, 2024

Special content from Jack, very short read!

Uh oh! Signs of a potential financial market correction may be on the horizon:

  • The S&P 500 is down 4% from its all-time high.
  • Investors are showing increased interest in gold, silver, copper, and other commodities, which are often seen as safe havens during economic downturns.
  • Geopolitical tensions remain high in the Middle East and Ukraine which definitely creates nervousness in the financial markets.
  • There are weaknesses in some areas of the US stock market, including major companies like Apple and Tesla, as well as retail stores, commercial real estate, and an increased consumer debt load.

But: The good news is we anticipated probable market weakness and took action last week. The RFS growth model is 70% short, and LONG gold, silver, copper, and commodities. So we are in great shape for a major market pullback.

Don’t forget we are always here for you and your family.

Jack

 

S&P500  -1.2%
RFS Aggressive Growth Model (AG)  +.26%
RFS Aggressive Growth + Model (AG+)  +.26%

* End-of-day market returns as of 4/15/2024 

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