Investment Ponderings from Jack Reutemann
At dinner this past week with a long-time client, I was asked what I thought of Jim Cramer. I kindly said, “He’s a great speaker, entertainer, and educator, but I’m not sure of his investment advice track record, let me dig up the facts for you.”
An Examination of a Prominent Financial Pundit's Forecasting Record
A well-known figure in financial media appearing on CNBC’s Mad Money program, Jim Cramer who is often seen as a financial guru, frequently offers his opinions on stock market movements and specific investment opportunities. While his pronouncements often grab headlines and can immediately sway certain stock prices, a deeper look into his long-term prediction accuracy reveals a more nuanced, and often debated, picture.
In the short term, there's evidence that companies he highlights can experience an initial bump in value, sometimes seeing gains of over a percent in the hours immediately following his televised endorsements. However, this effect tends to be fleeting and does not consistently translate into superior performance over extended periods. When examining the trajectory of his recommended stocks over several months, their collective performance generally aligns with broader market indices, indicating no consistent advantage over simply holding a market-tracking fund.
Analyses of his written investment calls suggest that his success rate hovers slightly below what one might achieve through pure chance, and falls short when compared to other market strategists. A detailed review of hundreds of his "buy" and "sell" suggestions showed that while he might be correct in about three out of five immediate instances, his precision declines significantly after just a month, often leading to negative average returns. Interestingly, his advice to sell stocks sometimes fared better than his "buy" calls, though even then, his correct "sell" predictions were only accurate about 42% of the time over a longer duration.
This commentator has also been associated with several high-profile misjudgments, such as his positive outlook on a bank shortly before its collapse or repeated misinterpretations of a major cryptocurrency exchange's stock performance. These errors have fueled a popular counter-strategy, where some investors actively bet against his public recommendations, dubbing it the "Inverse" effect. Instances exist where his "sell" advice was followed by considerable gains in those very stocks, further highlighting a lack of consistent foresight.
Within investment circles, his frequent miscalls have become a running jest, inspiring even financial products designed to capitalize on taking the opposite side of his positions. His animated and dramatic presentation style is often perceived as prioritizing entertainment value over consistently sound financial guidance.
In summary, while this high-profile financial personality undeniably wields short-term influence over stock movements, his long-term ability to accurately predict market direction or consistently outperform the market remains unsubstantiated. His forecasting precision tends to be inconsistent, marked by notable misjudgments. Therefore, investors should exercise caution and avoid solely relying on his pronouncements for their long-term investment decisions.
Ultimately, for long-term financial growth, it's crucial to have a financial advisor who genuinely understands your unique situation and personal goals. Sustainable wealth building stems from a tailored strategy and disciplined approach, not from chasing risky, short-term stock plays based on televised commentary.
Weekly Market Insights | Market Attention Turns to Trade and Oil
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Stocks fell last week as an up-and-down mix of trade progress and anxiety, economic news, and geopolitical tensions netted out. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.39 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.63 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.32 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, edged down 0.18 percent.1,2 Trade, Geopolitics Dominate SessionsStocks largely languished for the first half of the week as investors awaited news from U.S.-China trade talks and key inflation reports.3,4 Sentiment began to rise late Tuesday afternoon following upbeat comments about trade talks. Most of the market gains came before the U.S. and China separately announced the trade update, with little reaction when markets opened the next day.4 Stocks peaked midweek, then declined despite a May report showing consumer inflation rose less than expected. Markets then trended a bit higher after a better-than-expected wholesale inflation report.5 Beginning Friday morning, all three averages were under pressure all day following news of an escalated conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices pushed higher on Friday on supply concerns.6 |
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Brighter Notes
As the week ended with rising tensions in the Middle East, it was easy to overlook some good economic news. First is inflation: both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed signs of cooling or holding steady. And both the CPI and PPI slightly beat expectations. Second, consumers. Consumer sentiment jumped in May—the first such rise in six months. Economists took note, as consumer spending drives two-thirds of the U.S. economy.7 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Retail Sales. Industrial Production. Capacity Utilization. Business Inventories. Homebuilder Confidence Index. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting, Day 1. Wednesday: Housing Starts. Building Permits. Jobless Claims (weekly). Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting, Day 2. Fed Chair Powell Press Conference. Friday: Leading Economic Indicators. Source: Investors Business Daily - Econoday economic calendar; June 13, 2025 This Week: Companies Reporting EarningsNo major U.S. companies are reporting this week. Source: Zacks, June 13, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice. |
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“Education is the transmission of civilization.” – Will Durant |
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What to Do If You Get an Identity Theft Letter From the IRSThe IRS can scan tax returns for potential fraud, and if a tax return seems suspicious, they will flag it for further review. In these cases, the IRS will send the taxpayer a letter notifying them of potential identity theft. Because the tax return won’t be processed until you respond to the letter, following the steps outlined is essential. The letter will likely have everything you need to know. The three different types of identity theft letters that the IRS may send out include:
This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional. Tip adapted from IRS8 |
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Zentangles Are a Fun and Creative Way to DestressDoodling is a great way to relax and destress for a few minutes, and Zentangles take doodling to the next level. They are fun and easy to learn. You can create some fantastic little pieces with just a few techniques. Zentangles are made from smaller patterns pieces together. The designs can be as simple as little circles, lines, and curves. Together, they can make a whole picture! You can add shading and contrast to accentuate your design. The idea behind Zentable is to decompress and relax while creating an excellent, unique layout. Tip adapted from Zentangle9 |
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There are two of them; one can usually see what the other sees, but they can never see each other. What are they? Last Week's Riddle: Three playing cards lie face down on a table. A jack is to the left of a queen. To the left of a spade is a diamond. A king is left of a heart. A spade is right of a king. What are the three cards? |
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Lake Titicaca |
Footnotes and Sources
1. WSJ.com, June 13, 2025
2. Investing.com, June 13, 2025
3. CNBC.com, June 9, 2025
4. WSJ.com, June 10, 2025
5. CNBC.com, June 12, 2025
6. CNBC.com, June 13, 2025
7. WSJ.com, June 13, 2025
8. IRS.gov, December 5, 2024
9. Zentangle, December 12, 2024
Weekly Market Commentary
The Markets
Employment was top of mind for financial markets last week.
Economists and investors hoped May employment information would provide insight to the state of the United States economy, as well as clues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) may lower the federal funds rate again.
Employment data arrives in two reports that offer different perspectives on the employment situation. Last week, the trends were similar – new jobs creation slowed from April to May – although the number of new jobs reported was quite different. Here’s a brief overview:
+37,000 new jobs per the ADP National Employment Report. Mid-week, this supplemental report showed fewer new jobs were added in May (37,000 new jobs) than had been created in April (62,000 new jobs).
“That was a big miss vis-a-vis what economists were expecting, and so we saw a negative market reaction initially. But if you talk to economists, guess what, they say that ADP number is not a very good predictor of the [Bureau of Labor Statistics] number, and they really give it much less weight, if any weight at all,” reported Julie Hyman of Yahoo!Finance.
+ 139,000 new jobs per the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). On Friday, the government’s Employment Situation Summary reported more jobs were created than economists had anticipated. However, jobs growth slowed from April (147,000 new jobs) to May (139,000 new jobs), and initial estimates for March and April were revised lower.
“While the headline number came in higher than expected, previous months were revised lower — a pattern which has been repeating itself for a while now and which has prompted a lot of head-scratching,” reported Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal of Bloomberg. The pair cited a source who believes one reason for the revisions is that key data about U.S. business closures and business openings arrives after the initial report is issued.
The unemployment rate, which is determined by a survey of households, remained steady at 4.2 percent in May. “…the household survey found a 625,000 decline in the labor force, which helps the jobless rate since those not in the workforce aren’t counted as unemployed,” reported Randall Forsyth of Barron’s.
So, what did the report tell us about the economy and prospective Fed rate policy? “Not as bad as feared but not as good as it looks. That’s what the latest employment data show. But for financial markets, the numbers suggest that the Federal Reserve may be slower to lower interest rates,” reported Forsyth.
By the end of the week, major U.S. stock indexes were all in positive territory year-to-date, reported Connor Smith of Barron’s. Yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher over the week.
ABOUT BORROWING AND LENDING. In the United States, many people engage in short-term borrowing. They use credit cards to acquire goods or services – springing for a dinner out, charging the cost of a new video game, or purchasing a replacement refrigerator. Then, they pay the money back. If the credit cardholder doesn’t reimburse the card provider in full each month, then they will owe interest on the money they’ve borrowed. Buying on credit is fast and convenient, and it can be quite profitable for the lender.
In China, the payment system can work differently. It’s more of a “pay now and buy later” approach where buyers lend their money to companies, reported The Economist.
“When you get a haircut or eat at a restaurant, the seller encourages you to pay in advance for multiple transactions. You might pay upfront for ten haircuts, or put 1,000 yuan ($140) on a pre-paid card, and the business will, in return, give you extra credit to spend… The bonus the firm adds to the customer’s deposit rises with the size of the initial outlay, and can be large. Customers putting down 10,000 yuan can receive an extra 2,000 yuan to spend in the store. If they use the money within a year, that amounts to an annual “interest” rate of 20 [percent], paid in kind.”
See what you know about borrowing and lending by taking this brief quiz.
- If the Chinese system seems familiar, it may be because it’s similar (in some ways) to gift cards. In 2024, Americans spent more than $300 billion on gift cards, according to a source cited by Charles Passy of MarketWatch. However, many Americans don’t use the gift cards they receive. That can make gift cards very profitable for companies. In 2024, a popular coffee retailer reported it had a significant amount of money stored in unredeemed gift cards and did not expect most of the cards to ever be redeemed. How much money was it?
- $379 million
- $985 million
- $1.77 billion
- $4.56 billion
- When people buy bonds, they agree to lend their money to a government or organization. In return, the government or organization agrees to repay the loan and pay a specific amount of interest. Imagine that you lend your child $2,000 to buy a car. In exchange, they promise to repay you $200 a month (until the debt is repaid) and to mow your lawn every week. In this example, the lawn mowing would:
- Probably never happen.
- Represent the repayment of principal.
- Represent the payment of interest on the loan.
- Be your reward for being a wonderful parent.
- A credit score offers insight to a person’s financial circumstances at a specific time, and helps financial institutions decide whether to lend to a person or not. The practice began in 1989 when the first credit-scoring algorithm was created. How many credit scores can a person have?
- One
- Three
- Fourteen
- Hundreds
- When people buy homes, the mortgage rates received are based on a specific benchmark. When the benchmark rate is higher, so is the mortgage rate. What is the benchmark for the 30-year mortgage rate?
- The 5-year average return of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index
- The Federal Open Market Committee federal funds rate
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury note rate
- The Big Mac Index
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“The pleasure of rooting for Goliath is that you can expect to win. The pleasure of rooting for David is that, while you don’t know what to expect, you stand at least a chance of being inspired.”
– Michael Lewis, Author
Answers: 1) c; 2) c; 3) d; 4) c
Sources:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/private-vs-govt-jobs-where-214534342.html
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm (report and Table B)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-06/america-s-data-disaster-is-already-here? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-09-25-Bloomberg-Americas-Data-Disaster%20-%205.pdf
https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-060625?mod=hp_LEDE_C_2 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-09-25-Barrons-The-Bottom-Line-of-the-Jobs-Report%20-%207.pdf
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-09-25-Barrons-Stocks-Rally-In-Wake%20-%208.pdf
https://www.investopedia.com/how-do-credit-cards-work-5025119#
https://www.economist.com/china/2025/05/29/chinas-crazy-reverse-credit-cards or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-09-25-Economist-Chinas-Crazy-Reverse-Credit-Cards%20-%2010.pdf
https://www.econlib.org/library/Topics/Details/bonds.html
https://www.creditkarma.com/credit/i/how-many-credit-scores-do-i-have
https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/publications/housing-insights/rate-30-year-mortgage