Setting the Record Straight: Mortgage Rates and the Fed

Last month, mortgage rates briefly reached their lowest levels in a year, but they quickly reversed course and increased following recent central bank activity.

It is critical to clarify a common misconception: a Federal Reserve rate cut does not directly lower mortgage rates.

While market sentiment is related, mortgage rates are primarily tied to the bond market, specifically the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield. As a result, mortgage rates often anticipate and adjust to market expectations of inflation and economic data before the Fed officially acts. This disconnect is the reason for current market volatility.

The Bottom Line: This complex environment underscores why staying informed with reliable, timely data is more crucial than ever.

Let's discuss a targeted strategy for your real estate plans. Don't let market shifts derail your goals for buying or refinancing in 2026—or even now.

Happy Thanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving

Wishing You a Happy Thanksgiving

As Thanksgiving approaches, we pause to reflect on and appreciate the abundant blessings in our lives, especially the family and friends who enrich our days.

We look forward with great anticipation to the coming year and the entire holiday season—a special time that affords us moments to cherish the intangible gifts of love, faith, and meaningful relationships.

We wish you and yours a wonderful Thanksgiving and a peaceful, joyful holiday season.

Weekly Market Commentary

The Markets

Uncertainty abounds.

Investors were skittish last week. Share prices jolted higher and lower amid concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) data center spending, upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions, and the strength of consumer spending, reported Phil Serafino and Natalia Kniazhevich of Bloomberg. These issues will affect the future performance of companies, and investors are trying to anticipate what may be ahead.

In the third quarter, companies were profitable and sales were strong

Overall, U.S. companies performed well in the third quarter of 2025. So far, 95 percent of companies in the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index have reported on performance over the period. Almost three-fourths performed better than analysts expected. Overall, company profits were up 13.4 percent for the quarter, reported John Butters of FactSet.

Sales (a.k.a. revenue) have been strong, as well. In the third quarter, S&P 500 companies had the highest combined sales growth in three years (+8.4 percent). “Three sectors are reporting (or have reported) double-digit revenue growth for the quarter: Information Technology, Health Care, and Communication Services,” reported Butters.

Share prices reflect recent performance and investors’ expectations

While strong company performance is reassuring, some analysts and asset managers believe stock prices, overall, are too high. For instance, Bank of America’s November survey of global money managers found that most respondents thought stocks were overvalued, reported Brett Arends of MarketWatch via Morningstar.

Not everyone agrees. Last week, Dan Kemp of Morningstar reported, “Strong revenue growth and unusually high profit margins…alongside the US stock market’s growing concentration in companies benefiting from the rapid growth in AI have led Morningstar’s analysts to increase their estimates of the market’s fair value. As a result, the average US company under Morningstar’s coverage now appears undervalued...”

Expect volatility to continue

While Morningstar analysts think valuations are attractive, they expect markets to remain volatile. The U.S. stock market’s “concentration in tech stocks – companies dependent on long term future growth – brings with it increased risk of lurching price movements driven by short-term changes in investor sentiment.”

There were a lot of ups and downs last week. Major U.S. stock indices ended the week lower. In contrast, U.S. Treasuries rallied, with yields on most maturities falling.

 

‘TIS THE SEASON! The holiday shopping season gets underway this week, and expectations are high. The National Retail Federation (NRF) looks at a bunch of economic factors – consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation, and monthly retail sales – to estimate how much people will spend over the winter holidays. This year, the forecast suggests sales will top $1 trillion.

“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity…We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones,” explained NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.

The gift shift

The Currency reported on a recent survey, called the Going Rate, that explored how Americans think about gift giving and spending. When responses were tallied, it found that:

86 percent Believe gifts can be meaningful without being expensive.

75 percent Expect gifts will be more expensive this year because of tariffs and inflation.

60 percent Think gift culture has gotten “out of hand”.

58 percent Have a gift budget.

56 percent Buy gifts throughout the year to spread out the cost.

48 percent Experience gift fatigue.

33 percent Are adopting no-gift policies.

 

Fifty-five percent of millennials, 50 percent of Gen Z, and 28 percent of baby boomers would rather give the gift of time and shared experience. They believe their presence is the real gift. Respondents who plan to give gifts expect to spend about $64 per person, on average.

 

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“Honey, do you honestly think I would check thousands of tiny little lights if I wasn’t sure the extension cord was plugged in?”
– Clark Griswold, National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation

Weekly Market Insights | AI Delivers Rocky Week for Stocks

Heightened volatility was on Wall Street’s mind last week, as investors continued to focus on valuations of artificial intelligence (AI) stocks.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.95 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 2.74 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.91 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slumped 3.25 percent.1,2

AI Valuation Worries 

Stocks slid over the first half of the week as anticipation continued to build for Q3 results from one of the largest AI megacap tech stocks, due out midweek.

While the decline was led by megacap tech stocks, which typically drag down both the Nasdaq and S&P 500, the Dow Industrials also fell. With the government still playing catch-up on a backlog of economic reports following the shutdown, investors kept a close eye on big consumer-related stocks for insights into the economy.3

Then midweek, all three major averages rebounded, with the S&P snapping a four-day losing streak. Sentiment improved as investors turned more positive about another AI firm’s quarterly report due out after Wednesday’s closing bell.4

That firm’s results helped boost stocks after the opening bell on Thursday, but prices retreated quickly as investor anxiety built over whether the Fed would adjust rates next month. The Fed’s October meeting minutes revealed divisions among the Committee's voting members. Additionally, the Labor Department's September jobs report painted a mixed employment picture, which might complicate the Fed's decision.5

Stocks rebounded on Friday after New York Fed President John Williams seemed to reassure investors that a rate adjustment at the Fed's December meeting was still a possibility. The bounce was jagged, as the rebound had to battle through disappointing economic data on consumer sentiment and manufacturing activity.6

More Jobs, but Higher Jobless Rate

The delayed September jobs report came out last week, and showed employers added 119,000 jobs—the strongest monthly gain since April and a rebound from August’s loss of 4,000 jobs (which was later revised to a 22,000 gain). The jobs report was among the first post-shutdown reports to be published by the Labor Department.

The unemployment rate in September rose to 4.4 percent, higher than the 4.3 percent economists expected. It was the highest number in four years.

This was the Labor Department’s last monthly employment report before the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on December 9-10.7

This Week: Key Economic Data
Tuesday: Retail Sales (Sept). Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Sept). Business Inventories (Sept). Consumer Confidence. Pending Home Sales.

Wednesday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Durable Goods Orders (Sept).

Thursday: THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY—MARKETS CLOSED

Friday: Chicago Business Barometer.

Source: Investors Business Daily - Econoday economic calendar; November 21, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: Agilent Technologies (A)

Tuesday: Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI), Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL), Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK), Workday, Inc. (WDAY)

Wednesday: Deere & Company (DE)

Source: Zacks, November 21, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

“Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life." 

– Steve Jobs

Outstanding Tax Bill? Consider an Offer in Compromise

An Offer in Compromise is a federal tax program that allows taxpayers to enter into an agreement with the IRS to settle their tax debt for less than the amount they owe. This agreement is an option when taxpayers can't pay their full tax liabilities or when paying the entire balance owed would cause financial hardship. The goal is a compromise that suits the best interests of both parties. 

The IRS considers various circumstances when reviewing OIC applications, including the applicant’s:

  • Income
  • Expenses
  • Asset equity

There is also an application to apply for an OIC. Taxpayers who meet the definition of a low-income taxpayer don't have to pay this fee.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional. 

Tip adapted from IRS.gov8

It's All in a Walk: 3 Tips for Integrating Walking Into Your Day

Getting more movement is always a good idea, but finding the time to fit a walk into your day can be hard. These tips will make it easier to get up and get moving:

  • Keep a pair of sneakers in your car to walk whenever you have a few extra minutes! This could be during your lunch break at work, if you’re early for a doctor’s appointment, or while you’re waiting to pick up the kids from school.
  • Walk when you might otherwise sit. We’re always waiting for something, so walk around instead of sitting while you wait! It’s okay if you can’t go far; at least you’re getting your steps in.
  • Have multiple routes, so you don’t get bored walking the same route daily.
  • Invite friends for a walk instead of getting coffee or lunch.

Tip adapted from Help Guide9

Christine likes grapes but not potatoes. She likes squash but not lettuce, and peas but not onions. Following the same rule, will she like pumpkins or apples?

Last Week's Riddle: Glittering points that downward thrust. Sparkling spears that cannot rust. What are they?

Answer: Icicles.

Eurasian Lynx

Bavaria, Germany

Footnotes and Sources

1. WSJ.com, November 21, 2025

2. Investing.com, November 21, 2025

3. CNBC.com, November 18, 2025

4. CNBC.com, November 19, 2025  

5. WSJ.com, November 20, 2025

6. CNBC.com, November 21, 2025

7. WSJ.com, November 20, 2025

8. IRS.gov, May 22, 2025 

9. HelpGuide.org, June 12, 2025

Weekly Market Insights | Washington D.C. Resumes Business

Stocks ended mixed after a nail-biting week for investors, who grew anxious over megacap tech valuations and interest rates as the government shutdown came to an end.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index edged up 0.08 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.45 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.34 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, advanced 1.63 percent.1,2

Rotating into Value

The week began with stocks rising, fueled by hopes that the longest-ever government shutdown could soon end as a federal funding bill moved closer to Congressional approval. Building on these early gains, the Nasdaq advanced more than 2 percent and the S&P 500 added 1½ percent.3

Stocks rose at the opening bell on Tuesday following news that the Senate had passed a bill to end the shutdown, but sentiment quickly turned as tech stocks pulled down the Nasdaq and S&P. Meanwhile, the Dow rose modestly. However, by midday, sentiment shifted positively, and the Dow and S&P 500 closed in the green.4

Midweek, growing conviction that the government would reopen continued to push the Dow Industrials higher. As a result, the Dow achieved its first record close above 48,000, with the S&P remaining flat and the Nasdaq slipping. Once the government reopened Thursday morning, attention quickly turned to tech valuations and an earnings miss from a large entertainment conglomerate. This shift also prompted investors to worry whether the Fed would adjust interest rates next month. Despite a brief dip as the week concluded, markets stabilized, with the Nasdaq and S&P recovering near the flatline, while the Dow lagged slightly.5,6,7

Restarting the Data Engine

It takes time to get a tanker ship up and running again after a full stop. That’s what the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is doing now, as the government stats engine resumes.

Using the last government shutdown (in 2013) as a baseline, about half of the BLS reports that have not yet been published could be ready by the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on December 9-10. The remainder of the backlogged reports (including October reports) are estimated to be published on a rolling basis through mid-January.8

This Week: Key Economic Data
Monday: Fed officials Philip Jefferson, Neel Kashkari, and Christopher Waller speak.

Tuesday: Import Prices (October). Industrial Production (October). Capacity Utilization (October). Home Builder Confidence Index. Fed governor Michael Barr speaks.

Wednesday: Housing Starts (October). Building Permits (October). Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, October meeting.

Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Existing Home Sales (October). Leading Economic Indicators (October). Fed governor Lisa Cook and Fed Presidents Austan Goolsbee (Chicago) and Anna Paulson (Philadelphia) speak.

Friday: Fed governor Michael Barr, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speak. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Survey—Services. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Survey—Manufacturing. Consumer Sentiment.

Source: Investors Business Daily - Econoday economic calendar; November 14, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Tuesday: The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)

Wednesday: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX), Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW), Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW)

Thursday: Walmart Inc. (WMT), Intuit Inc. (INTU), NetEase, Inc. (NTES)

Source: Zacks, November 14, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

“Collecting more data often helps, but if you try to collect more data for everything, that can be a very expensive activity." 

– Andrew Ng

You Have the Right to Retain Representation When Working with the IRS

As part of the Taxpayer Bill of Rights, you have the right to retain an authorized representative to represent you when dealing with the IRS. If you can’t afford representation, seek help from a Low Income Taxpayer Clinic (LITC).

An authorized representative can represent you in interviews, audits, appeals, and tax collection disputes with the IRS and in court. Authorized representatives include attorneys, CPAs, enrolled agents, enrolled actuaries, or any other person who has submitted a written power of attorney to represent you. 

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional. 

Tip adapted from IRS.gov9

Strength Training for Any Age

Strength training benefits people of all ages, from children to older adults. According to the CDC, strength training at least twice per week can help you with the following:

  • Build strength
  • Maintain bone density
  • Improve your balance, coordination, and mobility
  • Reduce your risk of falling
  • Maintain independence in performing daily activities

The best part is that starting is easy, and you don’t need a complex routine to enjoy these benefits. Some people begin with bodyweight exercises, such as pushups, sit-ups, and squats, to get a feel for these movements. 

You can incorporate weights into your routine once you feel comfortable with bodyweight exercises. Focus on functional movements, which are the everyday movements you perform. Practical strength training will make things like taking the stairs, carrying groceries, or doing chores easier. 

Always talk to your doctor before starting a new strength training routine.

Tip adapted from CDC.gov10

Glittering points that downward thrust. Sparkling spears that cannot rust. What are they?

Last Week's Riddle: What is located in the middle of nowhere?

Answer: The letter "H."

Amalfi Coast, Salerno, Italy

Footnotes and Sources

1. WSJ.com, November 14, 2025

2. Investing.com, November 14, 2025

3. CNBC.com, November 10, 2025  

4. CNBC.com, November 11, 2025 

5. CNBC.com, November 12, 2025

6. WSJ.com, November 13, 2025

7. CNBC.com, November 14, 2025

8. MarketWatch.com, November 11, 2025

9. IRS.gov, May 29, 2025

10. CDC.gov, June 12, 2025

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