Weekly Market Insights | Jobs Data Delivers Bumpy Week

Stocks posted a slight gain last week as mixed jobs data triggered some selling pressure before a cooling inflation report helped stocks recover.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index inched ahead 0.10 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 0.48 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.67 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 0.21 percent.1,2

Round Trip for Stocks

A mixed jobs report on Tuesday created some concerns about the economy, leading the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials to modest declines. However, the tech-heavy Nasdaq posted a modest gain.3,4

Stocks continued their retreat on Wednesday with a handful of AI-related names leading the decline.5

Markets then staged a rebound as a fresh inflation report came in cooler than expected for November, raising investor hopes that interest rates may trend lower. The S&P 500 and Dow Industrials broke four-day losing streaks, while the Nasdaq rebounded 1.4 percent on Thursday alone.6

Megacap tech stocks rebounded on the last trading day of the week, lifting the broader market. Investors appeared to look past a disappointing report on consumer sentiment.7

The Push & Pull of Jobs & Inflation

The Bureau of Labor Statistics combined its October and November employment data into one report. However, the October report only contained partial data due to the shutdown, while the November numbers reflected full data.

While November saw an unexpected increase (+64,000 versus economist expectations of +45,000), the October report showed employers cut 105,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6 percent.8

The Consumer Price Index’s (CPI) 2.7 percent year-over-year pace for November was slower than the 3.1 percent economists expected, and slower than September’s 3.0 percent pace. Market gains were tempered, however, as economists cautioned that shutdown-related gaps may have influenced some of the data.9

This Week: Key Economic Data
Tuesday: Gross Domestic Product (GDP)*, Q3. Durable Goods* (Oct). Consumer Confidence. New Home Sales, Sept.* Industrial Production, Oct.*

Wednesday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Survey of Business Uncertainty.

Thursday: CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY—MARKETS CLOSED

* indicates publication of a report delayed by the government shutdown in October and November

Source: Investors Business Daily - Econoday economic calendar; December 19, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to provide accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts are also subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

No major companies are reporting earnings this week.

Source: Zacks, December 19, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule their earnings reports without notice.

"Our destiny is in our hands [...] So let’s build the future we all know is possible. Let’s prove to our children that they really can reach for their dreams."

– Michelle Obama

What is the IRS Alternative Media Center?

The IRS Alternative Media Center offers a variety of resources and accessibility services for visually impaired taxpayers. Using this platform, they provide tax-related content in several formats, including:

  • Text-only
  • Braille-ready files (available in English and Spanish)
  • Browser-friendly HTML
  • Accessible PDF (available in English and Spanish)
  • Large print PDF (available in a variety of languages)

The IRS also offers enhanced accessibility services. Taxpayers can complete Form 9000, Alternative Media Preference, to choose how they would prefer to receive their tax notices (ex: in Braille, large print, audio, or electronic formats). They also have an accessibility helpline that can answer questions related to accessibility services.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov10

Controlling Different Kinds of Light to Help You Sleep Better

Controlling your environment, including your exposure to light, may help you sleep better at night.

Increase your exposure to bright light during the day.
We know it’s beneficial to keep your room dark while you sleep, but it’s also helpful to get more bright light throughout the day! This contrast may help reset your circadian rhythm.

Reduce blue light exposure at least an hour before bed.
Blue light may make it difficult for our brains to relax and fall asleep. Because of this, some sleep experts recommend limiting blue light at least an hour before bedtime. You can also turn “night mode” on, giving your device screens a gentler yellowish hue than blue light.

Tip adapted from WebMD11

It has a thumb and four fingers, but isn’t alive. What could it be?

Last Week's Riddle: It usually loses a head by noon, but that same head often returns by midnight. What is it?

Answer: A pillow.

Le Cascate del Mulino, Tuscany, Italy

Tuscany, Italy

Footnotes and Sources

1. WSJ.com, December 19, 2025
2. Investing.com, December 19, 2025
3. CNBC.com, December 16, 2025
4. WSJ.com, December 16, 2025
5. CNBC.com, December 17, 2025
6. WSJ.com, December 18, 2025
7. CNBC.com, December 19, 2025
8. WSJ.com, December 16, 2025
9. WSJ.com, December 18, 2025
10. IRS.gov, January 22, 2025
11. WebMD.com, June 16, 2025

Rate Cut Ahead: Is Your Income Strategy Ready?

Rate Cut Ahead: Is Your Income Strategy Ready?
With the Federal Reserve now signaling an 87% chance of cutting interest rates at its upcoming meeting, it is crucial to assess how this shift could impact your financial future—especially if you rely on your portfolio for income.
The Impact: Falling interest rates often mean lower yields on common investments like new bonds and CDs. This can significantly reduce the income your portfolio generates over time, potentially tightening your cash flow. Consider this: a $300,000 investment earning 5% today would generate $7,500 less per year if renewed at a lower rate of 2.5%.
Confidence Check & Next Steps
As the year winds down, it's the perfect time to ensure your plan is positioned to succeed through this change. I'm offering a complimentary, no-obligation review where we can:
  • Stress-test your income strategy against a falling interest-rate environment.
  • Assess your investment risk to ensure your balance of growth and stability aligns with your comfort level and long-term goals.
  • Explore tax-planning opportunities to help optimize withdrawals and potentially offset lower investment income.
Let's make sure your plan is on solid ground. Simply contact us to schedule your free retirement review.

When Will Federal Retirees Receive the 2026 COLA Increase?

❓ Frequently Asked Questions: 2026 Federal Retiree COLA

Q: What are the 2026 COLA rates for federal retirees?

A: As announced in October, the Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) rates for 2026 are:

  • CSRS Annuitants: 2.8%

  • FERS Annuitants: 2.0%

Q: When will the 2026 COLA increase take effect?

A: The COLA is effective on December 1st of the current year.

Q: When will the COLA adjustment appear in my retirement payment?

A: The COLA adjustment will first appear in your annuity payment on the first business day of January. This payment reflects your December benefit, which is when the COLA officially takes effect.

Q: Do FERS retirees receive the COLA regardless of age?

A: Generally, no. Federal Employees Retirement System (FERS) and FERS Special Cost-of-Living Adjustments are not provided until age 62.

  • Exceptions apply for disability retirement, survivor benefits, and other special provision retirements.

  • Note: If you are a FERS retiree with a CSRS component, that component is subject to the CSRS COLA calculation.

     

Q: How is the COLA percentage determined?

A: The COLA is calculated using a formula based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Specifically, the percentage increase is determined by comparing the average CPI-W from the third quarter of the current year to the average from the third quarter of the last year a COLA was granted. The increase is then rounded to the nearest tenth of one percent.

Ready to Make a Change?

Take the first step toward a more secure future by scheduling a complimentary, no-obligation consultation to review your TSP allocation and define your retirement objectives. Research Financial Strategies prioritizes an "education first" philosophy, ensuring you fully understand your investment strategy while we collaborate to build a personalized financial plan that secures your long-term wealth and retirement goals. Discover how our guidance can help you gain clarity and confidence in your financial future through the Research Financial Strategies website.

 

 

Weekly Market Commentary

The Markets

It’s beginning to look a lot like a rate cut…

A lot of information about the economy arrived last week. Some was delayed by the government shutdown. Some was right on time. Investors took a look and decided their holiday wish could come true. The Federal Reserve (Fed) might deliver a cut rate cut this week. Here’s a brief recap of the information that landed just in time for the Fed to consider it.

Inflation rose in line with expectations. From August to September, headline inflation increased from 2.7 percent to 2.8 percent year over year, while core inflation (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) fell from 2.9 percent to 2.8 percent, according to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. It’s one of the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measures.

September spending mirrored rising prices. “U.S. consumers continue to be cautious with their wallets, spending more on basic goods and less on fun extras…gains in spending were largely concentrated on household necessities like gas and energy, housing and utilities, and healthcare…Spending on discretionary items like recreation services and goods actually decreased from the previous month…,” reported Nicole Goodkind of Barron’s.

The holiday shopping season got off to a strong start. Fast forward from September to November, and Americans were less cautious with their wallets over the Thanksgiving holiday shopping week. A software company that tracks consumer spending online reported that Americans spent $79.6 billion that week – a 5 percent increase year over year. “More than half of consumers shopped exclusively or mostly online during the five-day period…,” reported a research company cited by Spencer Soper of Bloomberg.

Consumer sentiment crept higher. Although the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index remained near all-time lows, sentiment improved from November to December.

University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Dec 2024 Nov 2025 Dec 2025 Historic monthly average

Index of Consumer Sentiment 74.0 51.0 53.3 84.8

Index of Current Economic Conditions 75.1 51.1 50.7 -

Index of Consumer Expectations 73.3 51.0 55.0 -

 

Major U.S. stock indexes closed higher last week with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index just below an all-time high, reported Connor Smith of Barron’s. Yields on U.S. Treasuries notes and bonds rose over the week.

LANGUAGE IS CHANGING. There are a lot of languages in the world (7,159), but almost half the world’s population (3.7 billion people) communicates using just 20 of them. Individual languages change over time. “They’re living and dynamic, used by communities whose lives are shaped by our rapidly changing world,” reported Ethnologue, a research center for language.

Dictionaries catalogue the ways language changes, adding new words that reflect the world around us. Several English dictionaries recently announced their Words of the Year (WOTY) for 2025. They include:

Parasocial, which is the Cambridge Dictionary’s WOTY. Parasocial is defined as “involving or relating to a connection that someone feels between themselves and a famous person they do not know, a character in a book, film, TV series, etc., or an artificial intelligence.” Searches for the term increased significantly “following the release of personalized AI chatbots by multiple companies in the preceding year, public discussion about the psychological impact of parasocial relationships expanded from being mainly about influencers and celebrities to including the benefits and dangers of chatbots.”

Rage bait, which is the Oxford Dictionary’s WOTY. It was selected after three days of voting during which 30,000 people offered their insights and opinions. Use of the word increased three-fold in 2025. Rage bait is defined as: Online content deliberately designed to elicit anger or outrage by being frustrating, provocative, or offensive, typically posted in order to increase traffic to or engagement with a particular web page or social media account.

AI slop, which is the Macquarie Dictionary’s WOTY. It is defined as “low-quality content created by generative AI, often containing errors, and not requested by the user.” It was chosen by staff editors, who wrote, “While in recent years we’ve learnt to become search engineers to find meaningful information, we now need to become prompt engineers in order to wade through the AI slop.”

67 (pronounced six-seven), which is Dictionary.com’s WOTY. The word “is a viral, ambiguous slang term that has waffled its way through Gen Alpha social media and school hallways. While the term is largely nonsensical, some argue it means ‘so-so,’ or ‘maybe this, maybe that,’ especially when paired with a hand gesture where both palms face up and move alternately up and down…Because of its murky and shifting usage, it’s an example of brainrot slang and is intended to be nonsensical and playfully absurd.”

It will be interesting to see how language in Australia changes over the next few years. Effective December 10, 2025, the nation implemented a law that requires people to be 16 or older to have social media accounts. As you can tell from some of the words above, online communications can have a transformative effect on language.

“Social media enables new words, phrases, and expressions to go viral in a matter of hours, sometimes reaching global audiences…language, once shaped primarily by formal institutions, now responds to

grassroots innovation and mass participation, especially among youth cultures and online communities.”

 

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“Sharing meals has a strong impact on subjective wellbeing – on par with the influence of income and unemployment. Those who share more meals with others report significantly higher levels of life satisfaction and positive affect, and lower levels of negative affect. This is true across ages, genders, countries, cultures, and regions.”

– The World Happiness Report 2025

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Annual Elective Deferral and Catch-up Contribution Limits for 2026

💰 2026 Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Contribution Limits

The Internal Revenue Code (IRC) has set the TSP contribution limits for 2026. Here is what you need to know about the annual Elective Deferral and Catch-up Contribution limits:

1. Annual Elective Deferral Limit

The standard annual limit for all participants will increase to $24,500.

2. Catch-up Contribution Limits

The Catch-up Contribution amounts for participants aged 50 and older have also increased:

Age Group Catch-up Limit Total Maximum Contribution (Deferral + Catch-up)
Ages 50–59 and 65+ $8,000 $32,500 ($24,500 + $8,000)
Ages 60–64 (Higher Catch-up/Spillover) $11,250 $35,750 ($24,500 + $11,250)

Key Information & Action Items

  • Roth Requirement (Secure 2.0 Act): Federal employees must make all Catch-up Contributions as Roth Contributions.

  • Action: You can make your TSP contribution elections using myPay.

  • Note: There are 27 pay periods in 2026. Please plan your contributions accordingly.

6Lc_psgUAAAAAA9c7MediJBuq3wAxIyxDSt73c9j