Market Commentary June 20, 2022

Market Commentary June 20, 2022

Weekly Financial Market Commentary

June 20, 2022

Our Mission Is To Create And Preserve Client Wealth

The fight against inflation intensified.

Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a message that it is serious about fighting inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lifted the federal funds target rate by 0.75 percentage points. The fed funds rate is now 1.50 percent to 1.75 percent.

The Fed also has begun to shrink its $9 trillion balance sheet by selling Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities, a process known as quantitative tightening (QT), reported Kate Duguid, Colby Smith, and Tommy Stubbington of Financial Times (FT). The Fed’s balance sheet expanded greatly during the past few years as it engaged in quantitative easing (QE). QE entailed buying Treasury and agency securities to ease financial conditions, strengthen the economy, and support markets during the pandemic.

If QT was a rate hike, it would be “roughly equivalent to raising the policy rate a little more than 50 basis points on a sustained basis,” according to a paper published by the Fed in June. Although, the authors stated there was considerable uncertainty associated with the estimate. It’s hard to be certain about what will happen when the Fed has only attempted QT once before.

Global markets weren’t enthusiastic about the fact that the Fed and other central banks are tightening monetary policy. Harriet Clarfelt and colleagues at FT reported, “US stocks have suffered their heaviest weekly fall since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, after investors were spooked by a series of interest rate increases by big central banks and the threat of an ensuing economic slowdown.”

It’s likely that markets will continue to be volatile, according to the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index®, which measures expectations for volatility over the next 30 days. The VIX is known as Wall Street’s fear gauge. Last week, it rose to 31. That’s well above its long-term average of 20.

Last week, major U.S. stock indices tumbled, and yields moved higher across much of the Treasury yield curve.

IS THE BOND MARKET OR THE STOCK MARKET A BETTER RECESSION PREDICTOR? The stock market has been dropping, but that doesn’t necessarily mean a recession is ahead. The stock market isn’t very accurate when it comes to predicting recessions.

 In 1966, following two decades of almost uninterrupted economic growth and stock market gains, a bear market arrived. Stock investors feared a recession might be ahead, and the S&P 500 Index dropped 24 percent over eight months before rebounding and moving higher.

Economist Paul Samuelson, the first person to win a Nobel prize in economics, quipped, “The stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions. A factcheck of Samuelson’s off-the-cuff remark in 2016 found that he was right. Bear markets in stocks lead to recessions about 53 percent of the time, reported Steven Liesman of CNBC.

In other words, the stock market has about the same predictive value for recessions as a coin toss. The Treasury bond market has a far better record.

In normal circumstances, yields on Treasuries rise as maturities get longer. So, a two-year Treasury bill will normally yield less than a 10-year Treasury note. On occasion, shorter-maturity Treasuries yield more than longer-maturity Treasuries. This is unusual because investors usually want to earn more when they lend money for a longer period of time. When two-year Treasuries yield more than 10-year Treasuries, we have an inverted yield curve. (The name, “yield curve,” describes how the data looks on a chart.)

An inverted yield curve is a more reliable indicator that a recession is ahead. Alexandra Skaggs of Barron’s explained, “In a recent study of yield curve inversions, BCA Research found that the gap between 2- and 10-year yields has inverted before seven of the past eight recessions…The gap between 3-month and 10-year yields has a better record, calling all 8 recessions without a false signal.”

At the end of last week, the yield curve was not inverted. Three-month and two-year Treasuries were yielding 1.63 percent and 3.17 percent, respectively. The 10-year Treasury was yielding 3.25 percent.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there.”
—Charles Kettering, engineer and inventor

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Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

 

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

 

Sources:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220615a.htm
https://www.ft.com/content/2496105a-d211-4abe-ab5d-46a91876428f (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/06-20-22_Financial%20Times_Fed%20Begins%20Quantative%20Tightening_2.pdf)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/substitutability-between-balance-sheet-reductions-and-policy-rate-hikes-some-illustrations-20220603.htm
https://www.ft.com/content/80d79903-415b-4c8e-8715-2eeb86e09300
https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/
https://www.ft.com/content/eb643be2-a3c9-49f9-815b-795449ccea44 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/06-20-22_Financial%20Times_Rising%20Rates%20Big%20Losses_6.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-dow-nasdaq-sp500-51655511568?refsec=the-trader&mod=topics_the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/06-20-22_Barrons_The%20Stock%20Market%20Had%20a%20Very%20Bad%20Week_7.pdf)
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202206
https://stockinvesting.today/ma1607/article/the-1966-bear-market?
https://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/04/can-the-markets-predict-recessions-what-we-found-out.html
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/invertedyieldcurve.asp
https://www.barrons.com/articles/inverted-yield-curve-recession-wall-street-51649170366?tesla=y (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/06-20-22_Barrons_An%20Inverted%20Yield%20Curve%20Doesnt%20Always%20Predict%20a%20Recession_12.pdf)
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/charles_kettering_163122

Special Market Update

Special Market Update

Inflation is proving to be far more tenacious than financial markets had hoped.

The idea that inflation peaked in March was put to rest last week when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation accelerated in May. Overall, prices were up 8.6 percent last month, an increase from April’s 8.3 percent. It was the highest inflation reading we’ve seen since December 1981.

The most significant price increases were in energy (+34.6%) and food (+10.1%). That’s unfortunate because the War in Ukraine has a significant influence on food and energy prices right now, and no one knows how long it will last. In April, the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook reported:

“The war in Ukraine has been a major shock to global commodity markets. The supply of several commodities has been disrupted, leading to sharply higher prices, particularly for energy (natural gas, coal, crude oil), fertilizers, and some grains (wheat, barley, and corn).”

With inflation rising, the Federal Reserve will continue to aggressively raise the federal funds rate. There is a 50-50 chance the Fed will raise rates by 0.75 percent in July (rather than 0.50 percent), and some economists say there could be a 0.75% hike this week when the Fed meets, reported Scott Lanman and Kristin Aquino of Bloomberg.

Mortgage rates jumped sharply this week, as fears of a potentially more aggressive rate hike from the federal reserve upset markets.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose 10 basis points to 6.28% Tuesday. That followed a 33 basis point jump Monday.   The rate was 5.55% one week ago.

Rising rates have caused a sharp turnaround in the housing market.  Mortgage demand has plummeted.  Home sales have fallen for six straight months, according to the National Association of Realtors.  Rising rates have so far done little to chill the red-hot home prices fueled by historically strong, pandemic-driven demand and record low supply.

The inflation news unsettled already volatile stock and bond markets. Major U.S. stock indices declined last week as investors reassessed the potential impact of higher interest rates and inflation on company earnings and share prices, reported Randall W. Forsyth of Barron’s. The Treasury yield curve flattened a bit as the yield on two-year Treasuries rose to a multi-year high, reported Jacob Sonenshine and Jack Denton of Barron’s. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note finished the week yielding more than 3 percent.

There was a hint of good news in the report. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices because they are volatile and can distort pricing trends, is trending lower. It dropped from 6.5 percent in March to 6.2 percent in April and 6.0 percent in May.

The Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge is the Personal Consumption Price (PCE) Index, which will be released on June 30.

COPING WITH A BEAR MARKET IS NOT EASY.
A bear market occurs when stocks have declined in value by about 20 percent or more. Investing during a bear market can be a lot like playing baseball for a team that’s in a slump. Your teammates are worried, hecklers distract the players’ attention, and the team’s record of wins and losses moves in the wrong direction. You might find yourself beginning to question whether playing baseball is right for you.

Here are some interesting statistics for coping with bear markets:

Remember, downturns don’t last forever.
The Standard & poor’s 500 Index has experienced 8 bear markets over the last 50 years and recovered from all of them, reported Thomas Franck of CNBC. Here’s a rundown of the duration and returns of bear and bull markets since 1973.

Year          Bear market         Total return                Bull market          Total return   
1973          21 months             -48 percent                  74  months            +126 percent
1980          20 months             -27 percent                  60  months            +229 percent
1987          3  months              -34 percent                  31  months            +  65 percent
1990          3  months              -20 percent                  113 months           +417 percent
2000          31 months             -49 percent                  60  months            +102 percent
2007          17 months             -57 percent                  131 months           +401 percent
2020          1.5 months            -34 percent                  21 months             +114%
2022          5 months to date   -22 percent                  TBD                       TBD

As you can see from the chart, bull markets tend to last far longer and generate moves of far greater magnitude than bear markets. Time after time, bear markets have proven to be good buying opportunities for long-term investors.

The current market conditions, as further compounded by the Russia/Ukraine war, as well as interest rates and inflation skyrocketing, have produced an environment unseen since ‘73/’74.  All the benchmarks for stocks and bonds are double digit negative.  The only asset class producing YTD positive gains is commodities: energy, food and grains, and metals.  I DO NOT SEE one good reason for the overall markets to not continue to fall further.  We will most likely be adding a SPXS and SQQQ positions (benefiting as the markets go down) to our investment models. 

A recap of 2022 YTD symbols:

The Good, The Bad, The Ugly

S&P 500  -21.63%
DIA  -16.29%
QQQ, TECHNOLOGY -30.58%
COMPQX -30.79%
IJH, MID CAP 400 -19.75%
IJR, SMALL CAP 600 -18.67%
IWM, RUSSELL 2000 -23.86%
RSP, EQUAL WEIGHT SPY -17.67%
RPG, SPY GROWTH -30.47%
RPV, SPY VALUE -4.84%
SPHB, SPY HI BETA -24.85%
AGG, THE AGGREGATE BOND INDEX -13.69%
GLD, GOLD –1.33%
SLV, SILVER -9.81% 

What is working:

UNG, natural gas +96.64%
UGA, gasoline +81.47%
USO, oil +63.08%
XME, metals and mining +6.41%
WEAT, wheat +45.74%
CORN, corn +32.36%
CANE, sugar +2.39%
JJA, agriculture +25.55%
JJE, energy  +94.01%
JJG, grains +31.67%
JJN, nickel +21.89%
SPXS, 3 X short SPY +72.65%
SQQQ, 3 X short QQQ +114.38%

Talk with us.
During market downturns, investors often panic. That causes some to want to sell investments and incur losses that may be difficult to recover. If you’re tempted to sell, give us a call. We’ll discuss your concerns, review your portfolio and help you decide on a course of action.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don’t understand that’s going to happen, then you’re not ready, you won’t do well in the markets.”
—Peter Lynch, former portfolio manager

Special Message

Special Message

Bonds CAN’T Fall Any Lower… Or Can They?

What once was considered a “safe” investment has taken a drubbing in 2022.  As of yesterday (June 06, 2022) the AGG (US Aggregate Bond Index) has fallen 10.42% 1.  Just for the record, a 10% drop is recognized as an official “correction” for equities. It would be hard to disagree that a 10% loss in bonds can be viewed as a catastrophe in a conservative investment portfolio.

Today, the Federal Reserve Prime Interest Rate (aka Prime Rate) is 4% 2.  That doesn’t sound that bad.  Especially compared to the past 40 years.  On December 19, 1980 the prime rate was a remarkable 21.5% 2.  It has fallen over the past 41 years to as low as 3.25% 2.  Comparatively, 4% vs 3.25% is barely a blemish on the safe and smiling face of the bond market…or is it?

Consider that interest rates historically move in the opposite direction of bond values.  As interest rates fell over the past 41 years, bond values have steadily been rising.  After 40+ years, bond investments have always been represented as the safe and conservative investment position.  After all, it’s difficult to  even remember when the last time it was this bad.  It’s been since 1977 that bonds values have fallen this painfully when surging inflation and spiking gasoline prices were hurting consumers. Sound recently familiar?

​The Federal Reserve (FED) is attempting to quell inflation with interest rate hikes.  The FED has indicated they will continue to raise rates by .5%  until inflation calms down and then they plan to raise future rate by .25% increases until they get inflation fully under control.

Until the FED navigates us out of inflation, you can expect bond values to continue to fall.

In our opinion, the day of fleeing to bonds for safety is gone, at least for the near to mid-term. 

So, the likely question on everyone’s mind is, “How does one avoid more and more losses in bond investments?”

Active management is our answer. 

As mentioned above, the AGG has fallen 10.42% 1.  We are active managers, and our Model Fixed Income account has lost only 2.51% in 2022 through June 06, 2022.  That is nearly an eight-percentage point difference between the benchmark and our returns.  It’s a lot easier to recover from a negative 2.5%  than from a 10% loss.

Essentially, you have three options:

1.       HOLD your bond investments and hope that interest rates fall in the very near future
2.       SELL your bond investments, go to cash, and endure the loss of purchasing power to the high rate of inflation
3.       ACTIVELY MANAGE your bond investments to avoid further losses and capture their eventual upswing

We believe Active Management is a path that gives you the best chance for success.

If you have questions or just want to talk about your concerns, please don’t hesitate to contact us.

 

 

Sources:

1.        https://www.investing.com/etfs/ishares-barclays-agg-historical-data (reset the date timeframe to 1/1/2022 through 06/06/2022 and look at the cumulative total loss of the AGG at the bottom of the data listing)
2.        http://www.fedprimerate.com/wall_street_journal_prime_rate_history.htm#current (all dates are listed)

 

Market Commentary June 20, 2022

Market Commentary June 6, 2022

Weekly Financial Market Commentary

June 6, 2022

Our Mission Is To Create And Preserve Client Wealth

How strong is the United States economy?

That’s the question investors were mulling after last week’s jobs report.

More jobs were created in May than economists expected, and the labor force participation rate rose, meaning even more people are returning to work. Overall, the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent. However, unemployment rates varied by age, sex and race:

  • Adult men: 4 percent
  • Adult women: 4 percent
  • Asian: 4 percent
  • Black: 2 percent
  • Hispanic: 3 percent
  • White: 2 percent
  • Teenagers: 4 percent

From an inflation perspective, there was some good news in the employment report as earnings increased at a slower pace than in previous months. Apart from that bit of good news, “More jobs added and higher wages are signs of a strong economy…the concern is that inflation will remain close to its recent peak,” reported Joel Woelfel and Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s.

Some pointed to layoffs at technology companies as a sign the economy might be weakening. However, as Randall Forsyth of Barron’s reported:

“…16,800 pink slips were handed out last month by 66 technology companies, the most since May 2020 at the depth of the pandemic…Many of those cuts came from outfits with much promise, but no profits, that burned through copious amounts of cash bestowed by a once-ebullient equity market.”

Investors who hoped the Fed would ease up were disappointed by the strength of the employment report. The data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten monetary policy, causing the economy to cool down and inflationary forces to recede, reported Barron’s.

Bond markets appear to agree that the Fed will have to work harder to tame inflation. The U.S. Treasury yield curve moved higher as rates on all maturities of U.S. Treasuries marched higher during the week. That also suggests recession concerns may be overblown, reported Ben Levisohn of Barron’s.

Major U.S. stock indices moved lower last week.

 

 

Data as of 6/3/22

1-Week

Y-T-D

1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index

-1.2%

-13.8%

-2.0%

14.4%

11.0%

12.4%

Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index

0.4

-13.0

-15.9

3.8

1.7

4.3

10-year Treasury Note (yield only)

3.0

N/A

1.6

2.1

2.2

1.5

Gold (per ounce)

-0.4

1.4

-1.2

11.9

7.6

1.2

Bloomberg Commodity Index

0.0

34.9

43.5

20.0

10.3

0.5

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. 
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

 

WHAT’S WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE? Consumers are feeling more pessimistic than they have in a decade. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey shows that sentiment has been sliding lower all year. In May, consumer sentiment was down 10.4 percent from April and 29.6 percent year-over-year. Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu explained:

“This recent drop [in sentiment] was largely driven by continued negative views on current buying conditions for houses and durables, as well as consumers’ future outlook for the economy, primarily due to concerns over inflation.”

One reason analysts keep an eye on consumer sentiment is that it helps predict what will happen to consumer spending. In theory, when consumers are optimistic, spending should increase and when they are pessimistic, spending should decline.

That’s not what happened this year, though.

Despite high levels of pessimism, inflation-adjusted consumer spending has increased every month in 2022, supported by solid wage gains and abundant savings. Here’s the month-by-month rundown:

  • January +1.5 percent from the preceding month
  • February +0.1 percent from the preceding month
  • March +0.5 percent from the preceding month
  • April +0.7 percent from the preceding month

Consumer spending includes everything we buy: furniture, cars, clothing, food, shelter, fuel, healthcare, education – you get the idea. It is the primary driver behind the American economy, comprising about 70 percent of economic growth (as measured by gross domestic product or GDP).

It’s possible that consumers are less pessimistic than the Consumer Sentiment survey suggests. Hsu wrote, “Less than one quarter of consumers expected to be worse off financially a year from now. Looking into the long term, a majority of consumers expected their financial situation to improve over the next five years; this share is essentially unchanged during 2022. A stable outlook for personal finances may currently support consumer spending.”

So, consumers are pessimistic – and they also seem to be optimistic. It’s an interesting conundrum.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.”

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Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

 

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

 

Sources:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-today-51654175140?mod=Searchresults (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/06-06-22_Barrons_The%20Dow%20Dropped%20After%20the%20Jobs%20Report_2.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-rebound-51654296872?mod=Searchresults (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/06-06-22_Barrons_The%20Jobs%20Report%20is%20Bad%20News%20for%20Anyone%20Betting%20on%20a%20Less-Aggressive%20Fed_3.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-jobs-report-is-bad-news-for-anyone-betting-on-a-less-aggressive-fed-51654268950

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2022
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-dow-nasdaq-sp500-51654306153?refsec=the-trader&mod=topics_the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/06-06-22_Barrons_The%20Stock%20Market%20is%20Charting%20a%20New%20Course_6.pdf)
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/02/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/06-06-22_Survey%20of%20Consumers_Final%20Results%20for%20May_8.pdf)
https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=69956
https://www.richmondfed.org/~/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/economic_quarterly/2003/fall/pdf/mehra.pdf
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-05/pi0422.pdf
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERE1Q156NBEA
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/64918-the-test-of-a-first-rate-intelligence-is-the-ability-to

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