What’s the Best Gift this Holiday Season?

What’s the Best Gift this Holiday Season?

What’s the Best Gift this Holiday Season?

Staying safe in a digital world
Let's Talk!

You’ve probably never asked your adult children and younger relatives whether they have security software on their computers and devices. Why would you? They’re digital natives, born with keyboards under their fingertips.

It may be time to ask.

In an unexpected twist, the best gift for some younger Americans this holiday season may be data protection software or services. A 2019 You.gov poll reported 35 percent of Americans, ages 18 to 34, think their data and personal information is ‘not very or not at all vulnerable’ to hackers.1

Those feelings of invulnerability aren’t the result of scrupulous digital security strategies. One-third of younger Americans polled indicated they didn’t pay for or use free programs to protect computers and personal data (or they did not know if data protection was in place).1

It’s remarkable the most digitally savvy among us aren’t the most concerned about data safety when a hacker attacks every 39 seconds, according to Security Magazine. Within just a few years, Cyber Security Ventures expects cybercrime to become “more profitable than the global trade of all major illegal drugs combined.”2, 3

Curiously, older Americans – the same group that provides ample fuel for social media groups where younger generations entertain themselves by ‘talking like boomers’ – appear to take cyber threats more seriously than younger ones do.1, 4

The You.gov poll found 80 percent of Americans over age 55 have digital security measures in place. If you’re not one of them, it’s time for you to protect yourself. Hackers and cybercriminals prefer easy marks, and you don’t want to be one.1

Digital security basics
Protecting personal and financial data means forming good digital habits, as well as using reputable security software. Here are a few digital do’s and don’ts. (You may want to share them in the holiday card you send to younger relatives.)

  • Do stay up-to-date. Periodically, you receive notices indicating your computer’s operating system or an application should be updated. When they arrive, take a few minutes to install the update. Out-of-date systems and software make you vulnerable to attacks.5
  • Do think carefully about privacy. In an unwelcome development, some third-party apps may have been reading your email. A large mail provider gave the apps access, and the people using the mail service agreed to it in the privacy policy they may not have read. After The Wall Street Journal reported the practice, the U.S. Senate sent a letter to the mail provider asking it to reconsider its practices.6
  • Don’t skimp on passwords. Sure, it’s easier to remember your password when it’s the same for everything. Using the same password also makes it easier for cybercriminals to access every account you have when a data breach occurs. Create a different password for every account and consider using an encrypted password manager to keep track of them.5

When it comes to passwords, the Federal Trade Commission recommends, “Be creative: think of a special phrase and use the first letter of each word as your password. Substitute numbers for some words or letters. For example, “I want to see the Pacific Ocean” could become “1W2CtPo.”7

  • Do use multifactor authentication. Usernames and passwords don’t provide enough protection anymore. The National Institute for Standards and Technology recommends multifactor authentication (MFA). It offers an additional layer of security.8

For instance, imagine a hacker logs into your bank account using your username and password (possibly obtained from a data breach). If you have MFA, instead of providing immediate access to your account, the bank will send an authentication code to your cell phone or email. The code must be entered before account access is granted. With the code, the crime is thwarted.8

  • Don’t send personal information via public Wi-Fi. When you have limited Internet access, you may only have access to the Internet via public Wi-Fi. If possible, avoid logging into password-protected accounts. Public Wi-Fi is not secure, reported CSO Online. A better option may be to use your smartphone as a hot spot, as long as you have protected it with a strong password.9, 10

The do’s and don’ts of digital security are important because your data is vulnerable and you cannot always protect it. The companies you work for, and do business with, are vulnerable to cyberattack even when they have strong protections in place. Forbes reported cybersecurity experts no longer believe it’s possible to prevent intrusions. Instead, they advise companies to build systems to limit the data that can be accessed during a breach.11

Educating yourself and your loved ones about digital security and adopting security practices that layer protections is critical. During the holiday season, try talking about digital security. It could be the best gift you give.

Are you looking for a financial advisor?  Do you feel confident about your retirement account decisions? Business owner looking for a company 401K plan administrator? Or an athlete or high net worth individual needing long term financial planning advice? Research Financial Strategies can help. We are here to help you design a financial strategy that is molded specifically for you. One that changes as your life changes. Financial investments to help you live worry-free now and in the future.

In our experience, we’ve found that the most successful solutions begin by asking the right questions.
We gain a broader perspective of your goals and the future you wish to create

Today is a Good Day to Start Your Financial Plan

1. We Listen

Our focus is on your life and priorities. Not just your portfolio. That’s why we start by listening and learning about you. Each individual client has different needs and concerns that need to be addressed. We carefully listen to those concerns. We will gain important information that will help us to best serve our clients and help protect their financial futures.

2. Plan

Together we will work to implement the plan that was developed for you. We will keep you constantly updated on what is happening and evolve our plan as your life happens.
Above all, our advisors want to help you meet your goals, even if that means helping you find out what your goals are.

3. We Take Care Of The Rest

We are here for you whenever you need us. Call your Research Financial Strategies Financial Advisor at any time, for any reason. You will always have access to the guidance you need whether it is high tech, high touch or a combination of the two. Your personal Financial Advisor will help you figure out how to pay for life’s great adventures!

 

Ready to Make a Change?

With an “education first” approach, Research Financial Strategies ensures that our clients understand how their money is being invested, and we guide the development of financial plans that help them achieve their goals for personal wealth and retirement security.

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Historically low interest rates present a welcome opportunity for many homeowners to improve their financial situation by refinancing their mortgage.  But, like everything else in the world of finance, there are no free lunches.  To take advantage of these lower rates, homeowners must leap the FICO hurdle.
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A preview of the SECURE Act

A preview of the SECURE Act

A preview of the SECURE Act

a new retirement bill out of the House of Representatives
Let's Talk!

A preview of the SECURE Act, a new retirement bill out of the House of Representatives.

Earlier this year, the House of Representatives passed a new bill called the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act, aka the SECURE Act. (Acronyms are kind of a thing in Congress.) As the name implies, the bill has important ramifications for people’s retirement savings. In this letter, we want to give you a preview of what the bill is designed to do.

Now, before we do that, it’s important to note that the SECURE Act must first be passed by the Senate and then signed by the president before it actually goes into effect. Many things in the bill could change before that happens, though, so it’s impossible to know exactly what the final law will look like. And of course, it’s always possible the Senate could choose not to pass the bill, or make so many changes that the House decides to rework their version.

That said, the SECURE Act enjoys bipartisan support. In fact, only three members of the House voted against it, with 417 members voting for.1 So it’s expected the Act will become law sometime soon. As your financial advisors, it’s our job to get familiar with the bill now so we can help you prepare for the changes it will bring.

What is the SECURE Act?
The SECURE Act does many things, but at its core, it’s designed to help more Americans save for retirement. Many of the bill’s provisions are designed specifically for businesses, which we won’t get into at this time.  But there are also provisions that impact regular individuals, including pre-retirees, the recently retired, and even their children. None of these changes are particularly dramatic, but they are important nonetheless.

Changes to IRAs and 401Ks2
One of the changes the bill makes is lengthening the time people can contribute to their IRAs. Currently, retirees can only contribute to an IRA up to age 70½. Once they hit this milestone, they are required to begin making withdrawals, called required minimum distributions. Under the SECURE Act, that age would increase to 72. That means retirees have an additional 18 months to benefit from the tax advantages that come with IRAs.

Another change the bill makes is for new parents. Under current law, you must be 59½ years old to make withdrawals from a traditional IRA or 401k. If you withdraw money earlier than that, you would have to pay a penalty of 10% on the amount you took out. There are a few exceptions, such as if you need the money to pay large medical bills, buy a home, or manage a disability. But, generally speaking, the government wants the money you contribute to your retirement accounts to be saved for retirement.

Under the SECURE Act, new parents will also be able to withdraw funds penalty-free. This is to help cover birth and adoption expenses, and it’s especially helpful for younger parents who have high deductible insurance plans. There is a $5,000 cap on withdrawals, though, and they would need to be made within one year of the birth or adoption.

Changes to inherited IRAs2
Another important change – especially from an estate planning perspective – regards inherited IRAs. For years, one of the more popular estate planning strategies has involved the use of Stretch IRAs. When a parent or grandparent dies, they can leave their IRA to their children, grandchildren, or other heirs. Under current law, the beneficiary can take distributions from their inherited IRA based on their official life expectancy. This allows them to “stretch out” the value of the IRA – and the tax advantages that come with it – for a longer period of time. For example, if a 50-year old with a life expectancy of 85 inherited her mother’s IRA, she could stretch out her distributions over the next 35 years.

If the SECURE Act goes into law, this will no longer be possible. Instead, the beneficiary must take out 100% of the IRA’s assets within 10 years of the original owner’s death. As distributions are taxable income, this could have a major impact on the beneficiary’s tax situation.

Planning ahead
As you’ve probably guessed, this topic is important to all of our clients. Some are older, some younger; some nearing retirement, some far away; and some already there. That’s because, while no single provision will affect everyone, almost everyone will be affected in some way.

As mentioned earlier, the SECURE Act has not yet become law, and it’s uncertain when the Senate will vote on it. That said, it’s important that we start planning ahead. If you have any questions about the SECURE Act, please let us know. Otherwise, we’ll make a point to go over any provisions that affect you the next time we have an account review.

If any of the changes you just read about don’t affect you, but could affect someone you know, please share this letter with them. Or, please let us know so we can reach out to them if and when the bill becomes law. As your financial advisors, we want to ensure you’re prepared for any changes coming down the pike – and we want to ensure your family is prepared, too.

We will keep a close eye on Washington as this bill makes its way through Congress. As soon as the situation is clearer, we will let you know. As always, please let us know if there is ever anything we can do for you.
Have a great month!

1 “Congressional Leaders Want SECURE Act Passage in 2019,” Plan Sponsor, October 7, 2019. https://www.plansponsor.com/congressional-leaders-want-secure-act-passage-2019/
2 “Text of H.R. 1994,” Congress.gov, 6/3/2019. https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/1994/text

Are you looking for a financial advisor?  Do you feel confident about your retirement account decisions? Business owner looking for a company 401K plan administrator? Or an athlete or high net worth individual needing long term financial planning advice? Research Financial Strategies can help. We are here to help you design a financial strategy that is molded specifically for you. One that changes as your life changes. Financial investments to help you live worry-free now and in the future.

In our experience, we’ve found that the most successful solutions begin by asking the right questions.
We gain a broader perspective of your goals and the future you wish to create

Today is a Good Day to Start Your Financial Plan

1. We Listen

Our focus is on your life and priorities. Not just your portfolio. That’s why we start by listening and learning about you. Each individual client has different needs and concerns that need to be addressed. We carefully listen to those concerns. We will gain important information that will help us to best serve our clients and help protect their financial futures.

2. Plan

Together we will work to implement the plan that was developed for you. We will keep you constantly updated on what is happening and evolve our plan as your life happens.
Above all, our advisors want to help you meet your goals, even if that means helping you find out what your goals are.

3. We Take Care Of The Rest

We are here for you whenever you need us. Call your Research Financial Strategies Financial Advisor at any time, for any reason. You will always have access to the guidance you need whether it is high tech, high touch or a combination of the two. Your personal Financial Advisor will help you figure out how to pay for life’s great adventures!

 

Ready to Make a Change?

With an “education first” approach, Research Financial Strategies ensures that our clients understand how their money is being invested, and we guide the development of financial plans that help them achieve their goals for personal wealth and retirement security.

How Can We Help?

Annuities, Potomac, Annuity, Bethesda,  Annuity Advisor, Rockville, 

Will There Be A Recession?

Will There Be A Recession?

Will There Be A Recession?

Are you prepared?
Let's Talk!

The simple answer is probably.  
Historically, the American economy has grown in fits and starts, otherwise known as recessions and expansions. As a result, it is likely there will be another recession in the United States.

What are recessions? When gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of all goods and services produced in the United States, declines for two consecutive quarters, many people will say the economy is in a recession.1

Typically, during recessions, unemployment rises, consumer income declines, consumer spending falls, and industrial production and manufacturing slow down.2

The last recession began in 2007 and ended in 2009. It lasted for 18 months, and was the longest recession since World War II.3

What are expansions? An expansion begins when GDP begins to grow again. Usually, during expansions, unemployment declines, consumer income increases, consumer spending grows, and industrial production and manufacturing accelerate.2

The current expansion began in June 2009. It is the longest expansion in the history of the United States.3, 4

 It’s important to note that during recessions and expansions, there may be brief reversals. For example, a recession may include a period of growth before the economy declines further, and an expansion may include a period of decline before the economy grows more. Usually the beginning of a recession or an expansion isn’t identified until well after it has occurred.1

When will there be a recession?
There is no simple answer to this question.

The causes of recessions are not always easily recognized, reported Robin Harding of Financial Times. When a threat to economic growth is observed, policy makers or central bankers often take action to minimize it.5

Recent recessions have been caused by unanticipated financial crises. In 2001, the bursting dotcom bubble sparked recession. In 2007, mortgage loan defaults and the housing crisis were the catalyst.5

The longevity of the current expansion has many investors worried about the chances of recession. However, as previous Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen commented, “I don’t think expansions just die of old age.”6

Despite the inverted yield curve*, which can be a recession signal, Harding wrote:5  “There are some signs we are late in the current cycle. Asset valuations are high by historic standards. Private debt has risen a lot in China and some peripheral economies. The Trump administration is rolling back financial regulation. It all increases risk. But the signs of stress that often precede a crisis – wild ebullience or rising defaults – are not obvious.”

In July 2019, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimated the probability of a recession in the United States by July 2020 at 31.5 percent.7

Fortunately, recessions tend to be far shorter than expansions. The United States has experienced 11 economic cycles – contractions followed by expansions – since 1945. The average length of recessions has been about 11 months. The average length of expansions has been 4.8 years.3

What will the stock market do?
Stock markets reflect investors’ expectations for the future. As a result, they tend to fall before a recession begins and rise before a recession ends. It’s not a very useful pattern because market volatility makes it very difficult to recognize when a market decline signals recession ahead and a market gain signals recovery.

No matter what the stock market does, it’s important for investors to implement strategies that will help them remain calm when markets are volatile. Here are four tips to help you stay focused on your goals when markets are turbulent:

  1. Keep your perspective. They may be uncomfortable, but stock market downturns are normal. Historically, markets have regained losses suffered during downturns and moved higher.8
  2. Choose the right amount of risk. When stock markets deliver strong returns, it can be tempting to invest in stocks more heavily. Before you do, remember more stocks means higher volatility. Choose a portfolio allocation that will let you stay calm during periods of volatility and market downturns.
  3. Take time to rebalance. The performance of markets can affect your portfolio allocation. If the stock market does well and the bond market poorly, you may end up with more risk than intended. Rebalancing preserves your allocation.
  4. Downturns may create buying opportunities. The silver lining behind the dark cloud of recession is you may be able to invest in strong companies at low share prices.
  5. Remember your goals. We spend a lot of time helping clients identify life and financial goals and then designing portfolios to help pursue those goals. The stock market may head south, but that doesn’t mean your goals have changed. Remember why you’re investing.

 

If you’re nervous about financial markets and would like to discuss what’s happening or just be reassured, give us a call. We’re happy to talk with you.

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For over 25 years, Research Financial Strategies has been serving Ashburn Virginia families and businesses as their financial advisor.  Let us put our money management expertise to work for you.  Set up a no obligation consultation by either filling out our contact form or by calling us at 301-294-7500.  We are here for you Ashburn!

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We are dedicated to helping you protect and manage your assets, prepare for retirement and life’s events, and develop a legacy that benefits your loved ones and future generations. As your financial partner, we listen and respond to your needs using clear, simple language. We offer personal service, seek to develop innovative strategies, and pledge to lead you with great care along the path to pursuing your goals.

Recession 101

Recession 101

Recession 101

When it comes to the future, prediction is futile…but planning is not.
Let's Talk!

“Markets are flashing deep red as investors worry about the health of the economy
– CNN Business
“S&P and Dow Slide as Evidence of Global Slowdown Mounts”
– The New York Times
“Stocks Drop on Worries About Growth”
– The Wall Street Journal

The markets hit turbulence this week, with the Dow dropping almost 500 points on Wednesday, October 2.1  Since recent reports have stoked new fears of a coming recession, we decided to write down our thoughts about what’s happening and why.

For over a year now, economists have fretted about the possibility of a recession. The amount of evidence for one has waxed and waned, as good news and bad have jockeyed for attention. But recently, the signs in favor of a coming recession have started to light up in neon.

Before we get into that, though, it’s useful to remember what a recession actually is – and what it isn’t. Since the media tends to report every bit of news with breathless urgency, it’s easy to let the word “recession” transform into a scary, supernatural bogeyman come to gobble up our economy. But what is a recession, really?

Economists define a recession in different ways, but here’s the simplest way to look at it:

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity over an extended period of time.2

Let’s break that down with a little Recession 101.

When economists refer to economic activity, they usually mean a country’s gross domestic product, or GDP. This is a measure of the value of all goods and services a country produces every year. When a nation produces less, or when the value of what it produces drops, so too does the GDP. With that drop often comes a drop in employment, wages, corporate profits – and stock prices. As a result, consumers tend to spend less, which means less business is being done, which means less economic activity is happening. In other words, everything tends to slow down. Spending, lending, selling, making, building, investing. If this goes on for too long – usually at least two consecutive quarters – we’re in a recession. Make sense?

The tricky thing about recessions is that it’s almost impossible to know when they’ll occur until we’re already in one. After all, GDP is a measure of what has been produced, not what will be produced. That’s why we tend to get a lot of false alarms when it looks like a recession may happen – and little warning when one does happen.

So. That’s what a recession is. But why are experts worried about one now?

First, it has been a long time since the last recession. In fact, it’s been over a decade! Since then, we’ve enjoyed one of the longest bull markets in history. Since the economy tends to move in cycles – a period of growth, followed by a period of stagnation, followed by a decline, rinse and repeat – many analysts have felt we’re long overdue for the next one.

More important is the preponderance of data that suggests the economy is already slowing down. For example, on Tuesday, October 1, a new report showed that American manufacturing had slowed down for the second month in a row, dropping to its lowest level since 2009.1 Other reports suggest the economy is adding far fewer jobs than in previous years. Combined with volatility in bonds, trade war uncertainty, and slower growth across the globe, and you can see why the horizon looks stormy.

That said, we’ve heard these tunes before. While parts of the economy are slowing, that doesn’t guarantee a recession is coming next month, next quarter, or even next year. Consumer spending – perhaps the single biggest driver of the economy – has remained strong all year, and the unemployment rate remains very low.

When it comes to fears of a recession, none of these signs are catastrophic on their own. All these smaller issues just seem to be piling up on top of each other, enough to make everyone sit up and take notice. Here’s how I look at it. Imagine you’ve had a very nice, reliable car for a long time. It’s been strong, steady, and always gets you where you want to go.

Recently, though, you’ve noticed that the miles on your car are starting to show a bit. Your odometer is now over 100,000, a reminder that you’ve had your car for a long time. Furthermore, little problems are starting to pop up. That check engine light keeps coming on, even though you’ve had a mechanic look at it. The engine makes a funny noise whenever you turn the ignition, and is it just you, or are your brakes less responsive than usual?

None of these problems, on their own, would make you think your car is anything less than reliable. But put them all together…

That’s where we’re at with the economy. We may yet be able to wring a few more family trips out of it – but it’s also time to start preparing for when it inevitably breaks down.

The effects of a recession

For the sake of discussion, though, let’s say a recession is going to happen soon. What does that mean? How long do recessions last? And how bad do they get? Every recession is different, but it’s important to remember that we’re not talking about another Great Depression here, or even another 2008-2009. If a recession happens, it doesn’t mean everything will collapse. And if it happens, it certainly won’t catch anyone unawares. Remember, experts have been stressing about this for a while.

Most recessions also tend to be mild in the grand scheme of things. Since 1940, the average recession has lasted just under eleven months, with the shortest being six months and the longest, eighteen.3  On the other hand, make no mistake: Recessions can cause real economic pain for people. A slower economy means less spending, which means less profits, which means lower stock prices, which means lower wages, and worst of all, lower employment. And sometimes, even when a recession is technically over and the markets recover, it can take much longer for employment to get back to normal.

So, if a recession is coming, what should we do to prepare?

Great question! I love the word “prepare.” You know what the definition is, right?

Prepare
verb
To make someone ready or able to do or deal with something.4

So, how do we make ourselves ready to deal with a possible recession?

First, even the wealthiest of people should always have enough in emergency savings to cover at least six months’ worth of expenses. This is also a good time to prioritize paying off short-term, high interest debts and evaluating your career security. If you need help with any of these things, please let me know.

Second, we need to remember that even though a recession will have an impact on the markets in the short term, we must always treat your portfolio for what it is: a long-term investment in your long-term future. That means we must not start making panicked decisions because we’re afraid of short-term losses.

That said, if you are nearing the horizon on some of your long-term goals – like retirement, starting a business, building a house, whatever – then it may be prudent to start thinking more conservatively with your investments. After all, no one wants to get knocked off track right before the finish line. With 2019 winding down, it’s time for us to have a complete review of your portfolio and your goals so we can update your financial plan as appropriate.

In other words, if a storm is coming, let’s determine whether you can weather it, or whether it’s time to “batten down the hatches.”  If you have any questions or concerns about the markets, the economy, or a possible recession, please let us know!  We want to address them, so that you’ll continue to feel confident about working towards your goals.

It’s impossible to know whether a recession is coming or not. There are signs for, and there are signs against. But regardless of when the next recession hits, let’s remember that it’s not a scary bogeyman. It’s a slowdown in the economy – and it’s not uncommon. Most importantly, let’s remember that when it comes to the future, prediction is futile…but planning is not.

Have a great October!

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1 “U.S. Stocks Drop on Worries About Growth,” The Wall Street Journal, October 2, 2019. https://www.wsj.com/articles/globalstocks-fall-amid-rising-fears-of-economic-slowdown-11570004904
2 “Recession,” Investopedia.com, May 6, 2019. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp
3 “List of recessions in the United States,” Wikipedia.org, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States#Great_Depression_onward
4 “Definition of prepare,” Lexico, https://www.lexico.com/en/definition/prepare

Where There’s a Will, There’s a Plan

Where There’s a Will, There’s a Plan

Throughout history people have made inheritance choices that are inexplicable to others. In 1926, Harry Houdini left his magical equipment to his brother, his pulled-from-the-hat rabbits to the children of friends, and a series of random words to his wife. The words were a code that would let her know when he was in touch from the afterlife.

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