Weekly Market Insights: Stocks Advance After New Inflation Data

Weekly Market Insights: Stocks Advance After New Inflation Data

Stocks advanced last week as market leadership shifted amid fresh inflation data and quarterly corporate reports starting to roll in.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.87 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 1.59 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index, which has led all year, rose 0.25 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rallied 1.62 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.1

Dow Breaks 40,000 (Again)

Mega-cap tech led modest gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the first two days of the week, with the Dow posting modest losses both days.

But that narrow trading range didn’t last long as market leadership shifted midweek. Upbeat corporate earnings reports and milder-than-expected consumer inflation in June drove momentum in a handful of larger industrial and consumer stocks.2,3

Q2 earnings season got into full swing later in the week, dominated mostly by financial and consumer-oriented companies. Markets seemed initially unfazed by better-than-expected reports from some money center banks. Some observers suggested higher interest rates may be one of the reasons for the market’s lukewarm response.4

The Dow ended the week with a solid gain after three consecutive weeks of trailing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The Dow also closed above 40,000, the first time it had done so since May, and hit a 52-week intraday high on Friday.

Mixed Inflation News

Two inflation reports came out last week: PPI and CPI.

The Producer Price Index, which measures the change in wholesale prices, rose 2.6 percent in June year over year—its largest increase in 16 months. By contrast, the Consumer Price Index, which tracks consumer prices, showed that the pace of inflation slowed in June.

Markets shrugged off the conflicting data, instead embracing the cooler CPI data. The Fed is likely taking notes for its next Fed meeting, scheduled for July 30-31.5

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Fed Official Mary Daly speak.

Tuesday: Retail Sales. Import and Export Prices. Business Inventories. Housing Market Index. Fed Official Adriana Kugler speaks.

Wednesday: Housing Starts and Permits. Industrial Production. Fed Official Thomas Barkin speaks.

Thursday: Jobless Claims. Fed Officials Michelle Bowman, Mary Daly and Lorie Logan speak. Fed Balance Sheet.

Friday: Fed Officials John Williams and Raphael Bostic speak.

Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar;  July 12, 2024
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS), BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)

Tuesday: UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH), Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)

Wednesday: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV), Prologis, Inc. (PLD)

Thursday: Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories, Inc. (ABT), Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC), The Blackstone Group (BX), Infosys (INFY)

Friday: American Express Company (AXP)

Source: Zacks, July 12, 2024
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

“Do not merely practice your art, but force your way into its secrets; it deserves that, for only art and science can exalt man to divinity.”

– Ludwig van Beethoven

Give Back to Your Community By Working as a Tax Volunteer

If you’re looking for a way to give back to your community and help people with low-to-moderate incomes, consider applying to volunteer with the Volunteer Income Tax Assistance or Tax Counseling for the Elderly programs. These programs offer free tax help to senior citizens, persons with disabilities, and those who speak limited English to understand their tax situations.

Here are some of the perks of being a VITA or TCE volunteer:

  • Flexible hours: Generally, volunteers contribute 3-5 hours per week. Some sites are open all year, but most programs are open from January to April.

  • Convenience: Thousands of VITA and TCE sites are set up in neighborhoods across the country, so it’s convenient to volunteer at a location close to home. These locations are usually community centers, libraries, schools, and malls.
  • No experience needed: You don’t have to be a tax pro to volunteer because all volunteers receive special training and can serve in various roles.

*This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov6

What to Look for on a Nutrition Label

Nutrition labels contain helpful information that can guide you in the right direction as you eat healthier. But do you know how to read one correctly? The serving size is the first thing you will see on a nutrition label; this shows how many calories a serving contains.

The following section is the nutrients. This section helps you determine a food’s nutritional value. Pay close attention to saturated fat and added sugar. Lastly, you have the % Daily Value (DV), the percentage of each nutrient in a single serving in terms of the recommended amount.

Tip adapted from heart.org7

Wide as a grapefruit, deep as a cup, but even a river can’t fill it up – What is it?

 

Last week’s riddle: All around yet can’t be seen, has no throat but can be heard. What is it? Answer: The wind

Australian Cape Fur Seals at Play
Narooma, NSW, Australia

 

Footnotes and Sources


1. The Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2024

2. The Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2024

3. The Wall Street Journal, July 11, 2024

4. The Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2024

5. The Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2024

6. IRS.gov, May 8. 2024

7.  heart.org, May 8, 2024

Weekly Market Insights: Stocks Advance After New Inflation Data

Weekly Market Insights: Stocks Steady in Short Holiday Trading

Stocks steadily advanced over the holiday week thanks to strength in mega-cap tech issues and encouraging jobs data.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.95 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 3.50 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up a modest 0.66 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 2.30 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.1

Nasdaq, S&P Extend Runs

ADP’s employment report on Wednesday showed private-sector employers added 150,000 jobs in June—slightly slower than May’s pace—adding to investor hopes that a slowing economy may prompt the Fed to adjust short-term rates as early as September. The Nasdaq and the S&P hit their 23rd and 33rd record closes, respectively, for the year.2

Friday morning’s jobs report from the Labor Department showed 206,000 jobs added last month, which also suggested a strong-but-cooling economy. News of slower job growth, slowing wage growth, and a slight uptick in unemployment helped drive down Treasury yields, and stocks finished the short week with a strong rally. The Nasdaq and S&P both closed at all-time highs on Friday.3

Still Catching Up?

Driving much of the job growth in last week’s reports was a post-pandemic catchup effect: sectors such as healthcare and leisure/hospitality showed they are still recovering.4

The private-sector jobs data and the Labor Department report painted a similar picture of an economy creating jobs but at a slower rate than in the past.5,6

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks.

Wednesday: Petroleum Status Report. Fed Officials Austan Goolsbee and Michelle Bowman speak.

Thursday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Jobless Claims. Fed Officials Raphael Bostic and Alberto Musalem speak. Fed Balance Sheet.

Friday: Wholesale Inflation (Producer Price Index). Consumer Sentiment.

Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar;  July 5, 2024
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Thursday: PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP), The Progressive Corporation (PGR), Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL), Conagra Brands (CAG)

Friday: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), Citigroup Inc. (C), The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK)

Source: Zacks, July 5, 2024
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

“I want to believe that there is a mountain so high that I will spend my entire life striving to reach the top of it.”

– Cicely Tyson

How to Apply for Tax-Exempt Status for Organizations

If an organization wants to apply for tax-exempt status under Section 501(c)(3), it starts by filling out a Form 1023-series application. It must submit a complete application and the user fee. Organizations also need their employer identification number to complete the application. Generally, an organization that is required to apply for recognition of exemption must notify the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) within 27 months from the date of formation.

Some organizations (including churches or public charities whose annual gross receipts are less than $5,000) may not need to apply for 501(c)(3) status to be tax-exempt. When the IRS determines an organization qualifies for exemption under Section 501(c)(3), it will also be classified as a foundation unless it is a public charity.

*This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov7

Brain Health Supplements: Are They Worth the Hype?

Over-the-counter brain health supplements claim to improve memory and promise enhanced memory and sharper attention and focus. Unfortunately, the FDA doesn’t oversee product testing or ingredient accuracy; instead, it looks for supplements that make health claims related to treating specific diseases. Because of this, a brain health supplement could claim that it helps with mental alertness or memory loss.

Most brain health supplements contain omega-3 fatty acids, such as those found in fish oil. Rather than choosing a supplement, some health professionals recommend eating a healthy diet full of vitamins, minerals, and healthy fats. Also, exercising your brain like any other muscle may help with memory. Ongoing education is a great way to keep your brain moving.

Tip adapted from Harvard Medical School8

All around yet can’t be seen, has no throat but can be heard. What is it?

 

Last week’s riddle: This house attracts travelers with its brightness, yet it is often the loneliest home on the coast. What kind of house is this? Answer: A lighthouse.

New York City, New York

 

Footnotes and Sources


1. The Wall Street Journal, July 5, 2024

2. The Wall Street Journal, July 3, 2024

3. The Wall Street Journal, July 5, 2024

4. The Wall Street Journal, July 5, 2024

5. The Wall Street Journal, July 5, 2024

6. Marketwatch.com, July 5, 2024

7.  IRS.gov, May 7, 2024

8. Harvard Medical School, May 7, 2024

Happy Independence Day

Happy Independence Day

Happy 4th of July! Whether you’re celebrating with a cookout, a family gathering, or watching the fireworks with friends, Independence Day reminds us how lucky we all are to belong to this great nation.

Enjoy the long weekend and join us in giving thanks for the freedoms we hold so dear.

Weekly Market Insights: Stocks Advance After New Inflation Data

Weekly Market Insights: Mixed Message From Fed Chair, Governor

Stocks finished the last week of June and Q2 mixed as investors digested a fresh round of economic data.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.08%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average also dipped 0.08 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.24 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index tracks developed overseas stock markets and rose 0.27 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.1

Nasdaq Regains Lead

Last week opened with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq heading lower, while the Dow rallied on momentum from the prior week. But by mid-week, the leadership shifted with the Nasdaq pushing higher.2

With the back half of the week packed with fresh economic data, conflicting stories developed about the economy. New home sales fell 11.3 percent in May—the largest month-over-month drop in a year and a half—while the supply of new homes hit a 16-year high. Meanwhile, first-quarter GDP revised slightly to 1.4 percent higher, and durable goods increased in May.3,4,5

Friday’s personal consumption and expenditure (PCE) data showed that core inflation slowed to 0.1 percent in May over the prior month and 2.6 percent year-over-year—its lowest annual rate in three years. Both figures were in line with expectations. Stock prices initially rallied on the upbeat inflation news, but the early gains faded as the trading day progressed.6

Divergent Speakers

Federal Reserve officials have worked to communicate that despite the progress made on inflation in recent months, it remains above the Fed’s 2 percent target.

Last week, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman surprised the markets when she indicated, “I remain willing to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at a future meeting should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.” Fed Chair Powell, scheduled to speak on July 2, told investors on May 14, “I don’t think that it’s likely, based on the data that we have, that the next move that we make would be a rate hike.”7

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: ISM Manufacturing Index. Construction Spending.

Tuesday: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks. Motor Vehicle Sales. JOLTS.

Wednesday: Jobless Claims. International Trade in Goods and Services. FOMC Minutes.

Friday: Employment Situation. Fed Balance Sheet.

Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar;  June 25, 2024
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Wednesday: Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ)

Friday: KalVista Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (KALV)

Source: Zacks, June 25, 2024
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

“If you have passion, a chip on the shoulder, a sense of humor, and you can explain what you do very well, it doesn’t matter if you’re a plumber or a singer or a politician. If you have those four things, you are interesting.”

– Larry King

Think About Credits and Deductions Now to Prepare for Filing

Here are a few facts about credits and deductions that can guide you through your year-round tax preparation:

  • Taxable income remains after someone subtracts any eligible deductions from their adjusted gross income, including the standard deduction. Some taxpayers may itemize their deductions to reduce their adjusted gross income.
  • The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act changed itemized deductions. In comparing these changes, many individuals accustomed to itemizing may find it more beneficial to take the standard deduction.
  • Generally, if a taxpayer’s itemized deductions are more significant than their standard deduction, they should itemize. Depending on the situation, some taxpayers may even be required to itemize.

Taxpayers can subtract tax credits from the total amount of tax they owe. To claim a credit, taxpayers should keep records demonstrating their eligibility. Some major tax credits include the child tax credit, the child and dependent care credit, the American opportunity credit or lifetime learning credit, and the earned income tax credit.

*This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov8

Macro Dieting is a New Way to Approach Calorie Counting

Macro dieting is a diet that transcends basic calorie counting. Rather than counting simply the number of calories, you count the macronutrients, including proteins, carbs, and fats. How much of each macronutrient you need depends on your body type, goal, lifestyle, and activity level. Rather than depriving your body of nutrients, you instead focus on meals that give your body the nutrients it needs to be more efficient.

To start a macro diet, you must first calculate how many grams of each macro you should eat. A standard breakdown is 50-25-25, meaning that 50% of your calories come from carbs, 25% from protein, and 25% from fat. However, this breakdown will depend on your goals. For example, if you focus on strength training, eat more protein.

Tip adapted from Eatingwell.com9

This house attracts travelers with its brightness, yet it is often the loneliest home on the coast. What kind of house is this?

 

Last week’s riddle: At a stop sign on a rural road, there are two trucks in front of a truck, two trucks behind a truck, and one truck in the middle of two trucks. How many trucks are there in total? Answer: Three

Lake Eibsee
Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Bavaria, Europe, Germany

 

Footnotes and Sources


1. The Wall Street Journal, June 28, 2024

2. The Wall Street Journal, June 28, 2024

3. CNBC.com, June 27-28, 2024

4. AP News, June 27, 2024

5. Reuters, June 26, 2024 

6. CNBC.com, June 28, 2024

7. CNBC.com, June 25, 2024

8. IRS.gov, March 1, 2023

9. Eatingwell.com, January 29, 2023

Inflation Drops; Fed Changes Outlook

Inflation Drops; Fed Changes Outlook

“It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.” Words of wisdom from baseball legend Yogi Berra. And words that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has taken to heart.

“Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated,” Powell said following the Fed’s June meeting. In other words, “it ain’t over ‘til it’s over.” The Fed wants to see more progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective before considering any changes to monetary policy.

Recall that just a few months ago, the Fed seemed prepared to cut rates three times in 2024. However, an uptick in inflation in Q1 forced them to revise their outlook. At the June meeting, Fed officials anticipate cutting short-term interest rates just once this year.1,2

The Fed’s about-face serves as a good lesson for everyone.

Changes in your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance should drive portfolio adjustments rather than forecasts and best guesses. The economy changes. Markets shift. And the Federal Reserve will adjust its strategy in response to what’s happening.

When I say “staying the course” and don’t overreact, it’s because I’ve experienced several economic cycles that take longer than expected to resolve. I’ve also seen others take shorter than expected to conclude. So today, I ask myself, “Is the Fed going to stick to its one-cut strategy or update its approach at the next meeting?” Recent history would suggest it’s about a 50/50 chance!

Our strategy isn’t dependent on anything the Fed does–or doesn’t do. Let’s stay the course and remember, “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”

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