Shortest ever.

Last week, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) finally announced the official dates for the recession that occurred in 2020. Economic activity peaked in February 2020 and bottomed in April 2020. That makes the pandemic recession the shortest in American history.

According to the NBER, “The recent downturn had different characteristics and dynamics than prior recessions. Nonetheless, the committee concluded that the unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warranted the designation of this episode as a recession, even though the downturn was briefer than earlier contractions.”

Since then, the United States’ economy has accelerated like a sports car on the German Autobahn, leading the developed world in the race toward economic recovery. A gradual slowdown was inevitable. However, three obstacles in the road may result in a sharp deceleration, reported The Economist.

#1. Inflation. A shortage of goods triggered inflation. Consumers have noted some price hikes, although others are less clear obvious. Makers of cereal, snacks, candy, and other products, are offering unchanged packages, priced as usual, that hold smaller quantities of product, reported Axios. The technique is known as shrinkflation.

#2. The end of pandemic policies. Enhanced unemployment benefits end in September, and the national moratorium on evictions ends in late July. The latter was the first of its kind and no one is certain how unwinding it will affect the economy, reported The Economist. Almost 36 percent of adults living in households that are behind on rent or mortgage payments, according to the latest Household Pulse Survey. We could see a housing boom and a housing crisis simultaneously.

#3. Spread of the Delta variant. The average number of coronavirus cases is up more than 180 percent over the last two weeks. “In the near term, the economic impact of the new wave of the pandemic in the U.S. could hinge on whether governments ratchet up restrictions intended to curb the virus’ spread.” reported Josh Nathan-Kazis of Barron’s.

While risks to economic growth persist, the earnings of publicly traded companies are strong. So far, 24 percent of the companies in the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index have reported second quarter earnings. Year-to-year blended earnings growth has been stellar, in part, because of how bad things were during the second quarter of last year, reported John Butters of FactSet.

Net profit margins, which could have been trimmed by inflation, are currently 12.4 percent. That’s the second highest level since FactSet began tracking data in 2008. Analysts anticipate profit margins will average 12 percent through the end of 2021.

HOW MUCH ARE OLYMPIC MEDALS WORTH? The Tokyo Organizing Committee of the Olympic and Paralympic Games took a new approach to producing medals. “Approximately 5,000 medals have been produced from small electronic devices that were contributed by people all over Japan…From the procurement of the metals to the development of the medal design, the entire country of Japan was involved in the production of the medals for the Tokyo 2020 Games – a project that was only possible with the participation of people across the nation.”

The current medal format – awarding gold, silver and bronze medals to the top finishers in each event – was introduced during the 1904 Olympics. For a few years, around that time, the medals were made of gold, silver and bronze, but that’s no longer the case. The medals awarded at the Tokyo Games are composed of a variety of metals.

·         Olympic gold. The gold medal contains 550 grams of silver ($490) covered in 6 grams of gold plating ($380). That puts its monetary value at about $870.

·         Olympic silver. The silver medal is made of pure silver. At the 2020 Olympics, the medal weighs in at about 550 grams, and its value is about $490.

·         Olympic bronze. The bronze medal is comprised of 450 grams – almost a pound – of red brass. Red brass is 95 percent copper and 3 percent zinc, and is valued at about $2.40 a pound. The medal’s monetary value is about $2.40.

Of course, the real answer to the question about the value of Olympic medals is that they are priceless. The achievement they represent – becoming one of the world’s best athletes in a sport – has a value that cannot be measured in dollars and cents. 

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Never underestimate the power of dreams and the influence of the human spirit. We are all the same in this notion: The potential for greatness lives within each of us.”
– Wilma Rudolph, Four-time Olympic medalist

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/07/24/does-america-face-a-growth-slowdown (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/07-26-21_Economist_Does%20America%20Face%20a%20Slowdown%20in%20Economic%20Growth_2.pdf)
https://www.axios.com/shrinkflation-inflation-cheerios-78a856e1-342f-404f-8d09-ad0da57a299e.html
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2021/07/24/as-moratoriums-lift-will-america-face-a-wave-of-foreclosures-and-evictions (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/07-26-21_Economist_As%20Moratoriums%20Lift_4.pdf)
https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/hhp/#/?measures=EVICTFOR&periodSelector=33
https://www.barrons.com/articles/delta-variant-covid-19-economy-51627066659 (or go to https://www.barrons.com/articles/delta-variant-covid-19-economy-51627066659)
https://www.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_072321.pdf
https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-jones-industrial-average-record-covid-19-51627088150?refsec=the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/07-26-21_Barrons_The%20Dow%20Just%20Hit%2035000_8.pdf)
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/en/games/olympics-medals/
https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/olympic-medals
https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/en/games/olympics-medals-design/
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/futures/metals
https://www.fullcirclerecyclingri.com/current-prices
https://olympic-speakers.com/news/10-inspirational-quotes/

The term “peak growth” has become almost as popular as the comedy show Ted Lasso.

Peak growth is a catchphrase with the potential to mislead. When the term is applied to the U.S. economy, it does not mean the United States economy has reached the pinnacle of growth and it’s all downhill from here. It simply means economic growth is likely to climb at a slower pace than it had previously.

Nicholas Jasinski of Barron’s reported the term is, “…a buzzy phrase used nowadays in discussing the rate of change in corporate earnings, U.S. gross domestic product, stock prices, government and central-bank stimulus and inflation. It’s the trend that matters for investors, and the outlook is moving toward a deceleration on several of those fronts.”

Last week, the bond market appeared to signal slower economic growth ahead, reported Mark DeCambre and Vivien Lou Chen of MarketWatch. Yields on 10-year Treasuries finished the week at 1.3 percent, which was lower than the previous week and well below March highs.

The change in Treasury yields was surprising because of last week’s inflation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which showed inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. The BLS reported inflation was 4.5 percent over the past 12 months when measured using the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy prices. With food and energy included, prices were up 5.4 percent.

When inflation rises above the Fed target, it suggests the economy is running too hot and the Federal Reserve, typically, raises the fed funds rate to cool things off. In this case, however, the Fed maintains that higher-than-desirable inflation will prove to be temporary.

The Fed’s expectation is due, in part, to supply chain shortages. The BLS report indicated inflation was up 0.9 percent in the month of June. Used car and truck prices rose 10.5 percent during the month, which accounted for more than one-third of the increase. A significant issue underlying the scarcity of vehicles is a microchip shortage.

“The origin of the shortage dates to early last year when [COVID-19] caused rolling shutdowns of vehicle assembly plants. As the facilities closed, the wafer and chip suppliers diverted the parts to other sectors such as consumer electronics, which weren’t expected to be as hurt by stay-at-home orders,” reported Michael Wayland of CNBC. There are about 1,400 microchips in a new car or truck, according to CNBC, and it can take up to 26 weeks from order to delivery, according to Max Cherney of Barron’s.

While supply chain issues may be resolved with time, another aspect of inflation is wages. Over the last 12 months, wages have increased 6.1 percent, and in June, they were up 1.1 percent. That’s good news for workers, but it’s an aspect of inflation that’s unlikely to be temporary.

A wildcard for global recovery remains COVID-19. Last week, the Centers for Disease Control reported the seven-day moving average for the number of cases was up 69 percent, hospitalizations were up 36 percent and deaths were up 26 percent.

Major U.S. stock indices moved lower last week.

WHAT WILL YOU DO WITH YOUR CHILD TAX CREDIT? Last week, 39 million American households that have children age 18 or younger received their first Advance Child Tax Credit payment.

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) explained, “Advance Child Tax Credit payments are early payments from the IRS of 50 percent of the estimated amount of the Child Tax Credit that you may properly claim on your 2021 tax return during the 2022 tax filing season. If the IRS has processed your 2020 tax return or 2019 tax return, these monthly payments will be made starting in July and through December 2021, based on the information contained in them.”

The amount Uncle Sam sends depends on the age of the children and the income of the family. Eligible households should receive $300 per month for every child age 6 or younger and $250 per month for every child between the ages of 6 and 17, reported Andrew Keshner of MarketWatch.

For some families, the money will help cover the cost of basic expenses. For others, the cash is a welcome windfall that could be used to:

·         Fund a 529 education savings plan. These plans provide a tax-advantaged way to save and invest for a child or grandchild’s education. Typically, after-tax contributions are invested and any earnings grow tax deferred. If distributions are used to pay qualified education expenses, they are tax free, reported savingforcollege.com.

·         Fund an ABLE account. The Achieving a Better Life Experience (ABLE) Act of 2014 allows Americans with disabilities and their families to save up to $15,000 a year in a tax-deferred account similar to a 529 college savings plan, explained FINRA.

·         Fund a Roth IRA. It may seem counterintuitive to open a retirement account for a 6-year-old, but Bankrate’s Roth IRA Calculator shows that a $3,600 investment, earning 6 percent annually, has the potential to grow to almost $150,000 at retirement by the time a 6-year-old is ready to retire at age 70.

For those who qualify and prefer not to receive payments, the IRS has a website that can be used to manage these payments.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“There’s nothing that can help you understand your beliefs more than trying to explain them to an inquisitive child.”
― Frank A. Clark, Former U.S. Congressman

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-what-to-buy-51626478092?refsec=the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/07-19-21_Barrons_The%20Easy%20Money%20Has%20Been%20Made_1.pdf)
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2021
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-year-treasury-yield-drifts-down-to-1-30-as-investors-watch-for-second-day-of-powell-testimony-11626349939
https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2021/05/19/two-percent-inflation-over-the-next-year-should-you-take-the-over-or-the-under
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/122203.asp
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/14/chip-shortage-expected-to-cost-auto-industry-110-billion-in-2021.html
https://www.barrons.com/articles/chip-shortage-spells-trouble-from-cars-to-game-consoles-51612996675 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/07-19-21_Barrons_Chip%20Shortage%20Spells%20Trouble_8.pdf)
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-you-do-with-your-enhanced-child-tax-credit-here-are-3-smart-options-11625779235
https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/2021-child-tax-credit-and-advance-child-tax-credit-payments-topic-a-general-information
https://www.savingforcollege.com/intro-to-529s/what-is-a-529-plan
https://www.finra.org/investors/learn-to-invest/types-investments/saving-for-education/able-accounts-529-savings-plans
https://www.bankrate.com/retirement/calculators/roth-ira-plan-calculator/
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/frank_a_clark_104546

There was a gappers’ block in financial markets last week as equity investors slowed to see what the United States Treasury bond market was up to. 

U.S. Treasury bonds rallied last week. Yields on 10-year Treasuries dropped from 1.43 percent at the start of the week to 1.27 percent on Thursday. The rally was quite a surprise, reported Randall W. Forsyth of Barron’s. “After all, the economy has been booming, accompanied by rising inflation – exactly the opposite of what would be conducive to lower [bond] yields and higher [bond] prices.”

As 10-year Treasury yields reached the lowest level since February, stock investors took time to consider what might have caused yields to retreat. Lower yields often suggest slower growth ahead. There may be potential for global growth to slow if:

A new wave of COVID-19 swamps the global recovery. Twenty-four U.S. states saw the number of COVID-19 cases move higher by 10 percent or more last week, reported Aya Elamroussi of CNN. The Delta variant of the virus accounts for more than one-half of all new cases. Last week, the global death toll reached 4 million and Japan, host of the 2020 Olympic games, declared a state of emergency.

China’s banking system is in trouble. There was another surprise last week. “…China’s central bank announced a half a percentage point cut to banks’ reserve ratio requirements, potentially increasing the profitability of their loans but also stirring concerns about the health of their balance sheets following a debt-fueled property boom,” reported Naomi Rovnick, Thomas Hale, and Francesca Friday of Financial Times.

U.S. economic growth falters as monetary and fiscal stimulus recede. “…the bond market is now adjusting to the prospect of more moderate growth in the second half, with reduced fiscal largess and no $1,400 or $600 stimulus checks. And it’s looking ahead to the eventual prospect of the Federal Reserve throttling back its securities purchases, which currently pump $120 billion a month into the financial system,” reported Barron’s.

When was the Euro 2020 tournament played? If you’re a soccer fan, you know the answer is last month. The tournament took place in 2021, although the name was not changed because the tournament was intended to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the European Football Championship, which occurred in 2020, reported Joe Sommerlad of The Independent. Also, the merchandise had already been produced with a 2020 logo.

The tournament final (England vs. Italy) had yet to be played when this was written, but it’s never too early for tournament trivia. See what you know about Euro 2020 by taking this brief quiz.

1.    There were more ‘own goals’ in Euro 2020 than in all other European championships combined. How many were there before the final match?

a.    5
b.    6
c.     9
d.    11

2.    What is the nickname of the Italian national team?

a.    Il Nerazzurri (The Black and Blues)
b.    Gli Azzurri (The Blues)
c.     Le Rondinelle (The Little Swallows)
d.    Il Toro (The Bull)

3.    How many major tournaments had the English national team, nicknamed The Three Lions, won before the Euro 2020 final?

a.    1
b.    2
c.     3
d.    4

4.    Euro 2020 prize money was about 10 percent higher than Euro 2016 prize money. Every team that participated in the tournament earned about £8 million (about $11 million). How much did the team that lifted the winning trophy earn?

a.    About £12 million (about $17 million)
b.    About £17 million (about $24 million)
c.     About £24 million (about $33 million)
d.    About £33 million (about $46 million)

The Economist explained the importance of European football like this, “On a continent where the facets of nationhood are disappearing, be they banal (customs arrangements), the everyday (currency) or the emotive (borders), football is a way of clinging on.”

Answers: (1) d; (2) b; (3) a; (4) c

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“A champion is someone who does not settle for that day’s practice, that day’s competition, that day’s performance. They are always striving to be better. They don’t live in the past.”
– Briana Scurry, Former goalkeeper, U.S. Women’s National Soccer Team

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX/history?p=%5ETNX (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/07-12-21_Yahoo%20Finance_Treasury%20Yield%2010%20Years_1.pdf) 
https://www.barrons.com/articles/bonds-odd-behavior-may-presage-weaker-second-half-economy-51625879881 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/07-12-21_Barrons_Bonds%20Odd%20Behavior_2.pdf)
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/08/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html
https://apnews.com/article/japan-coronavirus-pandemic-olympic-games-2020-tokyo-olympics-sports-f757eef4c7b7a606232145444a52e57f
https://www.ft.com/content/596c6ab3-e1c7-4c33-b2e0-c11077ce89a8 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/07-12-21_Financial%20Times_US%20and%20European%20Sotcks%20Rebound_5.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-news-covid-19-51625874629?refsec=the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/07-12-21_Barrons_Stock%20Market%20Can%20Continue%20to%20Grow_6.pdf)
https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/why-is-euro-2020-not-2021-b1865025.html
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210709-make-no-mistake-euro-2020-littered-with-own-goals
https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/news/0268-12219cce4a75-00dfa3b36740-1000–euro-2020-team-nicknames/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_England_national_football_team
https://theathletic.com/news/euro-2020-prize-money-england-italy/fo7GmuCaBKmD
https://www.economist.com/europe/2021/07/01/euro-2020-politics-by-other-means (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/07-12-21_Economist_Euro%202020_Politics%20By%20Other%20Means_12.pdf)
https://vocal.media/cleats/the-most-famous-soccer-quotes-of-all-time

The world is about halfway back to normal.

The Economist developed the Global Normalcy Index (GNI) to measure the post-pandemic return to normal. In March 2020, the GNI was 35 overall, with 100 being the normal pre-pandemic level. At the end of the second quarter, the worldwide GNI was 66, or about halfway back to normal.

Activity in the United States has been recovering faster than in other nations. The U.S. GNI was 72.8 on June 30. However, recovery in the U.S. has been uneven. For instance,

Employment is improving, but more slowly than anticipated. Last week’s jobs report showed a better-than-expected gain of 850,000 jobs in June. However, April and May jobs reports were below economists’ expectations, reported Randall Forsyth of Barron’s. In June, the unemployment rate was 5.9 percent, which is an improvement on the double-digit pandemic unemployment rate, but above the pre-pandemic level of 3.5 percent.

Employers are having trouble filling positions. Despite the fact that 9.3 million people remain out of work, trucking companies, airlines, restaurants, hotels, shipyards, factories, banks and other employers report having difficulty filling open positions, reported Julia Horowitz of CNN News.

In a Barron’s commentary, Suzanne Clark, the CEO of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, stated that solving the worker shortage should be the nation’s top priority. She suggested expanding access to childcare, supporting employer-led skills training, ending supplemental unemployment benefits, welcoming global talent and prioritizing second-chance hiring.

Workers are leaving jobs. Hidden among the employment data was a surprising trend that some have dubbed ‘The Great Resignation.’ In June, 942,000 Americans – 9.9 percent of those who were unemployed – were job leavers. They had resigned from their jobs. For comparison, the number of people leaving jobs during the entire second quarter of 2019 was 809,000.

“As pandemic life recedes in the U.S., people are leaving their jobs in search of more money, more flexibility and more happiness. Many are rethinking what work means to them, how they are valued, and how they spend their time,” reported Andrea Hsu of NPR.

Prices are rising more quickly than anticipated. Anyone who shopped for groceries for a Fourth of July barbecue or made an above-asking-price offer for a house (and waived the inspection), knows that prices have moved higher.

 Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE without food or energy), which is the Fed’s favored measure for inflation, rose steadily during the second quarter. In May, core PCE was up 3.4 percent. When food and energy were included, PCE was up 3.9 percent.

Inflation concerns consumers. Consumer sentiment was up year-over-year from May 2020 to May 2021. However, inflation dampened sentiment and expectations declined from April 2021 to May 2021, according to the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers.

“Twice as many consumers expected that the inflation rate would be 5% or more in the year-ahead rather than 2% or below (44% versus 22%). Importantly, consumers still anticipated declining inflation over the longer term,” reported Director of Surveys Richard Curtin.

The Delta variant is a wild card. At the end of last week, about 182 million Americans (64 percent of the population age 12 or older) had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and 157 million were fully vaccinated (55 percent of the population age 12 or older), per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That helped reduce the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, so the country could begin to move back toward ‘normal.’

 Last week, the number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. began to creep higher as the highly contagious Delta variant spread. It was responsible for about 20 percent of new U.S. cases. Tanya Lewis of Scientific American reported, “Several experts said they do not expect the Delta variant to cause a nationwide surge here in the U.S. like the one that occurred last winter. But they do anticipate localized outbreaks in places where vaccination rates remain low.”

​THE HOUSING MARKET BOOM. Low mortgage rates, high demand for homes and a limited supply of existing homes have pushed the cost of housing through the roof. In May, U.S. home prices were 23.6 percent higher than they were a year ago. The median sale price for an existing home was $350,300, and properties were selling at a rapid clip. Sales were constrained primarily by a lack of inventory and reduced affordability, reported the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Housing prices are higher around the globe. Sweden, Denmark, Russia, Canada, South Korea, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and other nations have seen home prices increase, too, reported Delphine Strauss and Colby Smith of the Financial Times.

While high demand and rising prices are good for homeowners, the phenomenon has economists and policymakers worried. “…The runaway market holds two concerns…First, prices could spiral into bubble territory, making economies vulnerable to a sudden market correction that would hit household wealth…Second, home ownership could become even more unaffordable for young people and key workers who were already priced out of many areas before the pandemic — entrenching inequalities between generations…”

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“If you are always trying to be normal, you will never know how amazing you can be.”
― Maya Angelou, Poet

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Sources:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/tracking-the-return-to-normalcy-after-covid-19 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/07-06-21_Economist_Global%20Normalcy%20Index_1.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-june-jobs-report-51625272180?mod=hp_LEAD_3_B_1 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/07-06-21_Barrons_Strong%20Jobs_2.pdf)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/29/economy/global-worker-shortage-pandemic-brexit/index.html
https://www.barrons.com/articles/solving-the-worker-shortage-is-the-nations-top-priority-51625005048 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/07-06-21_Barrons_Solving%20Worker%20Shortage_5.pdf)
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea11.htm
https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2020/article/job-market-remains-tight-in-2019-as-the-unemployment-rate-falls-to-its-lowest-level-since-1969.htm
https://www.npr.org/2021/06/24/1007914455/as-the-pandemic-recedes-millions-of-workers-are-saying-i-quit
https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings/
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/07/01/does-americas-hot-housing-market-still-need-propping-up (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/07-06-21_Economist_Hot%20Housing%20Market_10.pdf)
https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/personal-income-and-outlays-may-2021
https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=67634
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-dangerous-is-the-delta-variant-and-will-it-cause-a-covid-surge-in-the-u-s/
https://www.barrons.com/articles/covid-19-delta-variant-stock-market-51625271990?refsec=the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/07-06-21_Barrons_Stock%20Market%20Historically%20Strong_15.pdf)
https://www.marketplace.org/2021/06/24/purchasing-a-home-in-this-economy/
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-experience-slight-skid-of-0-9-in-may
https://www.ft.com/content/05a1ebb3-15d7-4847-a71f-2e559edb459f (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/07-06-21_Financial%20Times_Runaway%20House%20Prices_18.pdf)
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/normal