It wasn’t just the price of pork chops.

Last week, as investors weighed the news, strong corporate earnings were offset by higher grocery prices and rising numbers of global coronavirus cases.

Solid corporate earnings weighed favorably.
So far, 25 percent of the companies in the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index have reported first quarter earnings, and 84 percent said profits grew faster than expected, reported John Butters of FactSet. The blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 (which includes estimated earnings for companies that have not yet reported and actual earnings for companies that have) was 33.8 percent last week. For context, the 5-year average earnings growth rate (actual earnings) for the S&P 500 was 6.9 percent as of last week.

It’s important to remember the impact of earnings is often muted as earnings expectations – good or bad – tend to be priced into the market long before they are reported.

Inflation expectations weighed unfavorably.
Investors were concerned about inflation – and so were consumers. While the Federal Reserve and many economists believe we’ll see a fleeting uptick in inflation, others think the increase will persist. “…A consistent drumbeat of price hikes from major companies, consumer reports, and market data suggest the world may not be going along with their conclusion,” reported Dion Rabouin of Axios.

It is likely markets may pay particularly close attention to Federal Reserve statements about inflation and interest rates this week.

Rising numbers of Covid-19 cases around the world tipped the scales.
Concerns about India’s coronavirus surge, Japan’s state of emergency, and rising numbers of cases around the world caused investors to reassess expectations and some sold shares of companies that were expected to benefit from the re-opening of world economies. Yun Li and Maggie Fitzgerald of CNBC reported:

“The sell-off in shares that are tied to a successful reopening came as the World Health Organization warned that global coronavirus infections were edging toward their highest level in the pandemic. In the United States, while the country is maintaining a pace of 3 million reported vaccinations per day, about 67,100 daily new infections are still being recorded.”

Despite uncertainties, most (67 percent) professional investors who participated in Barron’s Big Money Poll said they were bullish on the outlook for stocks in the next 12 months. Just 7 percent were bearish.

Major U.S. stock indices finished the week flat or slightly lower. U.S. Treasuries rallied briefly before finishing the week flat.

A capital gains tax hike has been proposed.
Another factor that influenced last week’s stock market decline was the proposed capital gains tax hike. Investors’ response was a bit surprising since the tax increase wasn’t really news. Ben Levisohn of Barron’s reported:

“President Joe Biden made no secret of his plan to raise capital-gains taxes on the very wealthy. It was a campaign pledge, one that got enough attention for Goldman Sachs to release a note looking at the historical impact of previous increases on the stock market. (The answer: not very much.)”

According to Steve Goldstein of MarketWatch, the Goldman note reported the wealthiest U.S. households sold 1 percent of their equity assets prior to the 2013 capital gains tax increase. As a result, the S&P 500 Index experienced a short-lived loss six months prior to the tax hike and, six months after the tax hike, the Index was back in positive territory.

While the long-term impact on stock markets may be relatively small, the effect on high income investors could be significant.

The administration proposal, as written, would nearly double the capital gains tax rate for people with adjustable gross income of $1 million or more. (That’s about 0.3 percent of American taxpayers.) The current top long-term capital gains tax rate would increase from 20 percent to 39.6 percent, reported Laura Davison and Allyson Versprille of Bloomberg.

The capital gains tax increase is a proposed change. It has not been finalized, and there are indications the final tax may be lower if the bill is passed.

If you’re concerned about the potential tax increase and would like to learn more, please get in touch.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Share prices fluctuate more than share values.”
–Sir John Templeton, Investor, banker, and asset manager

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-feds-inflation-blind-spot-already-surging-grocery-and-housing-prices-51619209825 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-26-21_Barrons-The_Feds_Inflation_Blind_Spot-Already-Surging_Grocery_and_Housing_Prices-Footnote_1.pdf)
https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-april-23-2021
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
https://www.axios.com/inflation-federal-reserve-price-hikes-63588a9a-92cd-4764-8cd0-28778cf57c57.html
https://www.barrons.com/articles/india-and-japan-are-seeing-covid-surges-why-that-wont-derail-the-global-recovery-51619208829 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-26-21_Barrons-India_and_Japan_are_Seeing_COVID_Surges-Why_That_Wont_Derail_the_Global_Recovery-Footnote_5.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-have-more-room-to-rise-says-barrons-big-money-poll-51619222301?mod=hp_HERO (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-26-21_Barrons-This_Bull_Market_is_Far_from_Over_Pros_Say-Where_Theyre_Investing_Now-Footnote_6.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-did-the-dow-drop-this-week-it-got-spooked-by-old-news-51619221366?mod=hp_LEAD_2_B_1 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-26-21_Barrons-The_Stock_Market_got_Spooked_by_What_It_Already_Knew-Heres_Next_Weeks_Surprise-Footnote_7.pdf)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-178-billion-of-selling-ahead-of-the-capital-gains-tax-hike-these-are-the-stocks-most-at-risk-11619174251
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-23/biden-aims-at-top-0-3-with-bid-to-tax-capital-gains-like-wages (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-26-21_Bloomberg-Biden_Aims_at_Top_0.3_Percent_with_Bid_to_Tax_Capital_Like_Wages-Footnote_9.pdf)
https://www.azquotes.com/author/14517-John_Templeton

Where are Treasury bonds going?

The direction of bond yields is influenced by investors’ expectations for economic growth, among other factors. When economic growth is expected to weaken, bond yields tend to move lower. When economic growth is expected to strengthen, bond yields tend to move higher.

Last year, U.S. Treasury yields began to climb higher on optimism that vaccines, in tandem with fiscal and monetary stimulus, would strengthen economic growth. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose more than 1 percent in just a few months, from 0.54 percent at the end of July 2020 to 1.75 percent at the end of March 2021.

Last week, Treasury yields moved lower. Ben Levisohn of Barron’s explained it’s “…possible that after yields nearly doubled to start the year, investors were simply waiting to see that the move higher was over before buying again. Of course, nearly everyone was predicting a 2 percent yield on the 10-year, while often forgetting that rarely does anything in financial markets move in a straight line.”

There are reasons for investors to be optimistic about what may be ahead and there may be reasons for concern:

·         Corporate earnings are positive, so far. Corporate earnings are encouraging. Almost 10 percent of Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies have reported first quarter earnings. Earnings show how profitable a company was during a given period of time. So far, 81 percent of the companies have reported higher than expected earnings per share, reported John Butters of FactSet.

·         Vaccine rollouts offer mixed messages. As of last weekend, about 50 percent of Americans 18 and older had received at least one dose of the vaccine and about 32 percent were fully vaccinated, reported the Centers for Disease Control.

There is trepidation about the effectiveness of mass vaccinations and the pace at which people in other regions of the world are being vaccinated, reported Chris Wilson of Time. In the United States, the pause in distribution of single shot vaccines caused some investors to be concerned, reported Hope King of Axios.

 ·         Economic data was compelling. U.S. economic data released last week showed declines in weekly unemployment claims and strong retail sales numbers. The news strengthened expectations that economic recovery remained on track, reported Simon Jessop and Hideyuki Sano of Reuters.

Other issues that may be weighing on investors include uncertainty about infrastructure spending and sanctions on Russia.

No one is ever certain what the future will bring. It’s one reason for having a well-diversified portfolio.

What’s on the benefits menu? The impact of COVID-19 on workplaces has been profound. As we move toward a new normal, it is likely work as we once knew it will be changed forever. Employer benefits is one area in which there may be significant change.

Remote work options may be necessary for employers to remain competitive, according to the Pulse of the American Worker Survey:

“…a “war for talent” may be looming if companies don’t address workers’ needs…[the] war will be won by companies who affirm their standing as a top destination for both current and future talent. These employers will cultivate cultures that reflect what is most important to workers, such as remote-work options and flexible work arrangements, opportunities for career development and mobility, and comprehensive benefits that foster employee health and well-being and build financial resiliency.”

Financial wellness has become a top concern for Americans – at work and at home. Two-thirds of survey participants said they spent more time thinking about their finances in 2020 than they have in prior years, and they identified key barriers to financial security which included:

72%     Lack of retirement savings
65%     Lack of emergency savings
65%     Not enough invested to grow
64%     Too many bills
58%     Not enough financial “know-how
55%     Too much debt

Some employers are considering new benefits that help address these issues, including emergency savings programs and other financial wellness options.

If you have concerns about any of these issues, please get in touch.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Every day I get up and look through the Forbes list of the richest people in America. If I’m not there, I go to work.”
–Robert Orben, Comedian

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/061715/how-can-bond-yield-influence-stock-market.asp
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/11/treasury-yields-rise-as-stimulus-hopes-us-china-tensions-persist.html
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10#0
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-ends-week-higher-as-strong-economy-trumps-tumbling-bond-yields-51618619077?refsec=the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-19-21_Barrons-The_Stock_Market_Climbed_Because_Tumbling_Bond_Yields_Dont_Mean_What_They_Used_To-Footnote-4.pdf)
https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-april-16-2021
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
https://time.com/5953007/covid-19-mass-vaccination/
https://www.axios.com/reopening-stocks-digest-johnson-johnson-vaccine-pause-8bca92af-f906-4319-8f25-34a476dbb202.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-4pix-2021-04-16/
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-bond-market-isnt-blinking-so-far-at-bidens-plan-to-spend-trillions-on-infrastructure-11617651906
https://news.prudential.com/increasingly-workers-expect-pandemic-workplace-adaptations-to-stick.htm
https://news.prudential.com/presskits/pulse-american-worker-survey-road-to-resiliency.htm (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-19-21_PrudentialNews-Pulse_of_the_Amerian_Worker_Survey-Footnote_12.pdf)
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/robert_orben_103699

Investors didn’t stumble over inflation last week. Why not?

Inflation – rising prices of goods and services – can be measured in a variety of ways. For example, the Consumer Price Index considers changes in the amount consumers pay for goods and services – a bag of carrots, a gallon of gas, or a doctor’s appointment. The Producer Price Index (PPI), on the other hand, considers changes in the amount producers – such as farmers, manufacturers, or physicians – charge for goods and services.

Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the PPI increased by 1 percent month-over-month in March 2021. It was twice the increase forecast by economists. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI was up 4.2 percent, which was the biggest gain since 2011, reported Reade Pickert of Bloomberg.

It’s important to pay attention to comparisons. The year-over-year PPI reflected prices from last March, after the pandemic had affected demand and prices dropped lower. Bloomberg explained the phenomenon may continue for several months:

“Given major inflation metrics declined at the start of the pandemic, year-over-year figures will quickly accelerate – a development referred to as the base effect. The upward distortion will also appear in the closely-watched consumer price index report on Tuesday.”

Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell talked about inflation, too. He didn’t focus on year-over-year comparisons. Powell told an International Monetary Fund panel inflation may increase as the U.S. economy reopens because supplies are tight. However, he expects the increase to be relatively short-lived. “Persistent inflation that goes up year after year…tends to be dictated by underlying inflation dynamics in the economy, as opposed to things like bottlenecks. The nature of a bottleneck is that it can be resolved.”

Powell emphasized price stability is one of the Fed’s mandates and, if inflation becomes concerning, the Fed will act. The Fed’s other mandate, full employment, is the more pressing concern. Powell said, “The unemployment rate of the bottom quartile of earners is still 20 percent. The higher end of the labor market has virtually recovered, but not the people in the bottom 20 percent…It amounts to nine or 10 million people…who were working in February of 2020 and are now unemployed.”

Last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index opened above 4,000 for the first time and finished the week higher, reported Alexandra Scaggs, Barbara Kollmeyer, and Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s.

April is financial literacy month. It’s also National Canine Fitness, National Fresh Celery, and International Guitar Month (among so many other designations), but let’s not get distracted.

So, what is financial literacy? In 2008, the President’s Advisory Council on Financial Literacy defined financial literacy as “the ability to use knowledge and skills to manage financial resources effectively for a lifetime of financial well-being.” A lot of skills fall into that category, including budgeting, saving, and investing.

One aspect of financial literacy that is becoming more important is the way memory and aging affect financial decision making. Prior to the pandemic, the FINRA Investor Education Foundation and the Rush Memory and Aging Project explored this issue from several perspectives and discovered:

·         Confidence in financial literacy appears to be good for brain health. One study found “…confidence in financial literacy is associated with a decreased risk of Alzheimer’s dementia and slower decline in cognition, above and beyond objectively measured financial literacy…While it is not completely clear why this relationship exists, it could be that confident people are motivated to engage with the world and actively seek to acquire new information.”

·         Overconfidence about financial knowledge may lead to risky financial behaviors. Older Americans are responsible for a significant portion of our country’s wealth. Common wisdom holds that risk tolerance declines with age. However, a separate study found this was not always the case. In particular, overconfident people – those who believed their financial knowledge was higher than it actually was – reported being more tolerant of risk. There was no evidence overconfidence made them more susceptible to scams or fraud.

 ·         Loneliness in tandem with low cognition can lead to poor decisions. A third study found loneliness, on its own, generally doesn’t appear to result in poorer decision making. However, loneliness in older people with low cognition may result in poor financial (and healthcare) decisions. The study accounted for differences in depressive symptoms, social network size, medical conditions, and income.

Financial decisions often become more complex as we get older. From retirement plans to estate plans, and from the cost of prescription drug benefits to the expense of chronic disease management, older Americans are asked to weigh outcomes and make financial (and healthcare) decisions. Being financial literate can help – and so can understanding the factors that may affect decision making as we age.

Weekly Focus – Think About It 

“It’s paradoxical that the idea of living a long life appeals to everyone, but the idea of getting old doesn’t appeal to anyone.”
 –Andy Rooney, American television writer

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm
https://www.bls.gov/ppi/ppifaq.htm#1
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-09/u-s-producer-prices-increased-by-more-than-forecast-in-march (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-12-21_Bloomberg-US_Producer_Prices_Increased_by_More_than_Forecast_in_March-Footnote_3.pdf)
https://www.c-span.org/video/?510608-1/federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell-discusses-global-economic-policy (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-12-21_C-Span-Federal_Reserve_Chair_Powell_on_Global_Economic_Policy-Footnote_4.pdf)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSPC
https://www.barrons.com/articles/global-stocks-mixed-as-bond-yields-creep-up-and-china-inflation-spikes-higher-51617962327 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-12-21_Barrons-Stocks_Close_at_New_Highs_as_Inflation_Readings_Top_Forecasts-Footnote_6.pdf)
https://nationaldaycalendar.com/april-monthly-observations/
https://www.treasury.gov/about/organizational-structure/offices/domestic-finance/documents/exec_sum.pdf
https://www.finrafoundation.org/sites/finrafoundation/files/confidence-in-financial-literacy-and-cognitive-health-in-older-persons_1.pdf
https://www.finrafoundation.org/sites/finrafoundation/files/does-overconfidence-increase-financial-risk-taking-in-older-age_0.pdf
https://www.finrafoundation.org/sites/finrafoundation/files/relation-loneliness-cognition-financial-decisions.pdf
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/aging

Zoom, zoom, zoom.

Big economies tend to recover from recessions about as quickly as semi-trucks accelerate from stop lights. In other words, recovery tends to be slow. That may not be the case this time.

“Everything in this economic cycle is happening at great speed. That is in part a reflection of the scale of economic stimulus, and not only from the [Federal Reserve]. One big fiscal package seems set to follow another. A $1.9trn package has barely passed and a $3trn infrastructure bill is mooted,” reported The Economist.

Economic recovery has helped push stock prices higher, and concerns about inflation have pushed bond yields higher. Here are a few highlights from the first quarter of 2021:

Vaccination nation
Vaccine debates pepper small talk. Social media posts feature tips about finding appointments, as well as inoculation selfies and photos of vaccine cards. So far, about 31 percent of Americans have received one dose of a vaccine and 18 percent are fully vaccinated, reported the Centers for Disease Control.

Confident consumers
Vaccine progress, in tandem with stimulus payments and easing business restrictions, helped lift consumer confidence. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index^® rose from 88.9 in January to 90.4 in February. The March number exceeded even the most optimistic economic forecasts, reported Payne Lubbers of Bloomberg, rising to 109.7.

Jobs, jobs, jobs
In March, the employment report exceeded expectations, too. The U.S. Labor Department reported 916,000 new jobs were created. That was higher than the 675,000 jobs forecast by a Dow Jones survey of economists, reported Jeff Cox of CNBC. Leisure and hospitality sectors, which were hard hit by the pandemic, were job gain leaders in February and March.

An improving rate of job creation was welcome news. By government measures, the unemployment rate was about 6 percent. However, in early March, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told PBS News Hour, “We still have an unemployment rate that, if we really measure it properly, taking account of all the four million people who’ve dropped out of the labor force, it’s really running at 10 percent.”

Bond yields rise
For more than a decade, professional money managers have been predicting the end of the 40-year bull market in bonds – and they have been wrong. Since 1981 when rates on 10-year Treasuries were almost 16 percent, Treasury rates have trended lower.

That changed during the first quarter. Alexandra Scaggs of Barron’s reported:

“The Treasury market just posted its worst quarterly performance in more than 40 years, with investors betting on a strong U.S. economic recovery from COVID-19…In theory, the selloff in Treasuries should have left markets that trade at a yield premium to Treasuries, such as corporate debt, in a better position…Yet higher-rated and safer corporate bonds posted losses for the quarter as well, because of their high levels of duration or sensitivity to Treasury yields.”

Stock market boom
During the first quarter, sectors that were unloved in 2020 gained favor. In the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index, Energy, Financials, and Industrials delivered double-digit gains, reported Carleton English of Barron’s. Major U.S. stock indices finished the quarter higher.

The stock boom also included tremendous enthusiasm for so-called meme stocks (inexpensive stocks with relatively weak fundamentals) which realized gains because of investors’ enthusiasm rather than intrinsic value, reported Bailey Lipschultz of Bloomberg.

How many ways can you say money?
Slang is used by groups of people to distinguish themselves from other groups. Sometimes, slang terms become so well known, they are adopted for general use. See what you know about money slang by taking this brief quiz.

1. In Australia, the smallest coin in value and physical size is known as:
   1. Shrapnel
   2. Toonie
   3. Bob
   4. Dosh

2. Which of the following foods is not a slang term for money?
   1. Cabbage
   2. Chips
   3. Cheddar
   4. Pickles

3. In the 1800s, the name of an American political party included a slang term for money. What was it called?
   1. Spondilux Party
   2. Long Green Party
   3. Greenback Party
   4. Moolah Party

4. If you wanted to say, “one dollar,” which term would you choose?
   1. Benjamin
   2. Simoleon
   3. Yard
   4. Sawbuck

Quiz Answers:

1. A – Shrapnel
2. D – Pickles
3. C – Greenback Party
4. B – Simoleon

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Slang is a language that rolls up its sleeves, spits on its hands, and goes to work.”
–Carl Sandburg, American poet, journalist, and editor

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/03/27/the-fed-and-the-bond-markets (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-05-21_TheEconomist-The_Fed_and_the_Bond_Markets-Footnote_1.pdf)
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
https://conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm
https://www.conference-board.org/blog/podcasts/The-Conference-Board-US-Consumer-Confidence-Increases-Again-In-February
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-30/u-s-consumer-confidence-surged-to-one-year-high-in-march (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-05-21_Bloomberg-US_Consumer_Confidence_Surges_to_One-Year_High_on_Job_Optimism-Footnote_5.pdf)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/02/us-jobs-report-march-2021.html
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/treasury-secretary-janet-yellen-on-the-need-to-go-big-with-covid-relief
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10 (Choose ‘Max’ for time frame)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-treasury-market-just-had-its-worst-quarter-since-1980-51617299808?mod=article_inline (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-05-21_Barrons-The_Treasury_Market_Just_Had_Its_Worst_Quarter_Since_1980-Footnote_10.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-torrid-market-still-has-plenty-of-room-to-run-51617401817?refsec=the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-05-21_Barrons-This_Torrid_Market_Still_Has_Plenty_of_Room_to_Run-Footnote_11.pdf)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-03/as-meme-stock-mania-fizzles-wall-street-sees-big-reckoning (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-05-21_Bloomberg-As_Meme_Stock_Mania_Fizzles_Wall_Street_Sees_Big_Reckoning-Footnote_12.pdf)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slang_terms_for_money
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenback_Party
https://www.dailywritingtips.com/50-slang-terms-for-money/
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/carl_sandburg_106338

Last week, unemployment claims were looking good and consumers were feeling good.

The number of Americans applying for first-time unemployment benefits declined. Just 684,000 people filed claims during the week of March 20, down 97,000 from the week before, according to last week’s report from the Labor Department.

Granted, that’s a large number – higher than the highest number of first-time claims during the Great Recession – but it’s the smallest we’ve seen since the pandemic began, according to Christopher Rugaber of the AP. He wrote:

“Economists are growing more optimistic that the pace of layoffs, which has been chronically high for a full year, is finally easing…Still, a total of 18.9 million people are continuing to collect jobless benefits…Roughly one-third of those recipients are in extended federal aid programs, which means they’ve been unemployed for at least six months.”

Consumer sentiment also improved, according to data released last week. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment was up 10.5 percent month-to-month, although it remained down year-over-year. Perceptions of current economic conditions improved, too. Surveys of Consumers chief economist Richard Curtin reported:

“Consumer sentiment continued to rise in late March, reaching its highest level in a year due to the third disbursement of relief checks and better than anticipated vaccination progress…The majority of consumers reported hearing of recent gains in the national economy, mainly net job gains. The data clearly point toward robust increases in consumer spending. The ultimate strength and duration of the spending surge will depend on the rate of draw-downs in savings since consumers anticipate a slower pace of income growth.”

Performance of major U.S. stock indices was mixed last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index both finished higher for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite lost ground.

A fly…err, ship…in the ointment. Until last week, about 50 vessels, transporting approximately 10 percent of global trade, sailed through the Suez Canal every day, reported Scott Neuman and Jackie Northam of NPR.

The canal is a shortcut that makes it possible for ships to travel from Asia and the Middle East to Europe without sailing all the way around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, a route that’s both less secure (pirates) and more expensive (time, insurance, and fuel), according to David Sheppard, Harry Dempsey, Leo Lewis, and Kana Inagaki of Financial Times.

That changed on Tuesday when one of the largest container ships in the world became wedged in the canal, blocking traffic in both directions, reported Sudarsan Raghavan and Antonia Noori Farzan of The Washington Post.

The effect on global trade, supply chains, and consumers has yet to be determined. “Like much else about the situation, it depends on how long it goes on. A weeklong delay for a few hundred ships at the Suez might have only a negligible impact for consumers, but a prolonged delay could increase the cost of shipping, complicate manufacturing, and ultimately drive up prices,” reported NPR.

Prior to the shutdown at the Suez Canal, container shipping costs were already rising. The increase was due, in part, to a shortage of shipping containers. In early February, The Economist reported, “Surging demand for goods and a shortage of empty containers at Asian ports have sent container-shipping costs rocketing…The Freightos Baltic Index, a measure of container-freight rates in 12 important maritime lanes, has increased from $2,200 to $4,000 per container…”

On Sunday, preparations were being made to unload some of the 18,000 containers the wedged ship carries to facilitate refloating, reported Yuliya Talmazan of NBC News.

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“Everything in a modern container port is enormous, overwhelming, crushing. Kendal, of course, but also the thundering trucks, the giant boxes in many colors, the massive gantry cranes that straddle the quay, reaching up ten stories and over to ships that stretch three football pitches in length. There are hardly any humans to be seen.”
–Rose George, British journalist and author

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA
https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-jobless-claims-unemployment-coronavirus-pandemic-economy-75c27fd877d7a07ba2be1bba59cd82ca
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu
https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/03-29-21_Barrons-Market_Data-Footnote_5.pdf)
https://www.npr.org/2021/03/26/981600153/heres-how-a-long-shutdown-of-the-suez-canal-might-roil-the-global-economy
https://www.ft.com/content/3cbfa2dc-791b-47fa-a5f8-31d1b9a1757d (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/03-29-21_FinancialTimes-US_Offers_to_Help_Egypt_Unblock_Suez_Canal-Footnote_7.pdf)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/suez-canal-ship-blockage-ever-given/2021/03/26/357f8ae8-8da8-11eb-a33e-da28941cb9ac_story.html (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/03-29-21_TheWashingtonPost-Piracy_Fears_Mount_as_Ships_Take_Long_Way_Around_Africa_to_Avoid_Blocked_Suez_Canal-Footnote_8.pdf)
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/02/11/container-shipping-costs-have-surged-in-recent-months (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/03-29-21_TheEconomist-Container-Shipping_Costs_have_Surged_in_Recent_Months-Footnote_9.pdf)
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/suez-canal-containers-could-be-taken-ever-given-officials-say-n1262271
https://books.google.com/books?id=ua0a4xIdJvUC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/03-29-21_Book_Excerpt-Ninety_Percent_of_Everything-Footnote_11.pdf)

What are professional asset managers thinking?

Bank of America recently published the results of its March global asset managers’ survey, which polls 220 professional investors responsible for about $630 billion in assets, reported Julia La Roche of Yahoo! Finance.

Many of those surveyed were optimistic about 2021. During the next 12 months:

• 91 percent of those polled expect the economy to strengthen (that’s a record high)
• 89 percent anticipate global profits will improve
• 52 percent expect value stocks to outperform growth stocks

So, what were managers most worried about?

For the first time since April 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was not the most pressing concern for professional money managers. That spot was filled by inflation. Ninety-three percent of those surveyed expect inflation to rise during the next 12 months, reported Nicholas Jasinski of Barron’s, and that could affect stock prices. Jasinski reported:

“…higher bond yields mean higher borrowing costs, which could hinder the recovery and weigh on corporate earnings. Plus, a higher discount rate produces a lower present value for assets like stocks. And, when Treasuries produce enough yield, there’s greater competition for stocks.”

The discount rate is the Fed’s rate for lending to other banks.

One place to look for signs of inflation is bond yields. Recently, yields on U.S. Treasury bonds have been moving higher despite efforts by the Federal Reserve to keep them down, reported Lisa Beilfuss of Barron’s. It’s possible the bond market is pushing yields up because bond investors see inflation ahead. The AP’s Stan Choe and Alex Veiga explained:

“Inflation means future payments from bonds won’t buy as much – because the price of a banana or a bouquet of flowers will be higher than it is today. So, when inflation expectations rise, bonds are less desirable, and their prices fall. That pushes up their yield.”

Major U.S. stock indices finished last week lower.

(The one-year numbers in the scorecard are noteworthy. They reflect the strong recovery of U.S. stocks from last year’s coronavirus downturn to the present day.)

The world happiness report is out – and it was surprising. COVID-19 has disrupted just about every aspect of people’s lives – work, home, family, friends, and health – in every country of the world. Knowing this, it seems logical people would be less happy in 2020 than they had been in previous years. However, the findings of The World Happiness Report tell a different and more complex story. The authors explained:

“Many strands of data have been pieced together to produce a picture of almost astonishing resilience…Although there were significant increases in average sadness and worry, we found that overall life evaluations, and happiness rankings, were surprising stable. The top countries before the pandemic remained the top countries in 2020, so there is little change in the overall rankings.”

For the world as a whole, it appears negative changes in some variables, such as emotions and unemployment, were offset by positive changes in other variables, such as trust and generosity.

The remarkable stability of happiness may also reflect the fact some of population groups are not normally included in surveys – people who are homeless, in nursing homes, hospitals, prisons, and refugee camps – were also some those hit hardest by the virus.

There was another notable aspect of the study. Young people were significantly less happy in 2020 than they have been in previous years. The Economist explained:

“[In Britain], and in other rich countries, the age profile of happiness before the pandemic struck was roughly U-shaped when plotted on a graph. People began their adult lives in a cheerful state. They became glummer in middle age. Then, after about the age of 50, they started to become happier again…Today the pattern is an upward slope. The young are less satisfied than the middle-aged, who are less satisfied than the old.”

So, which countries were happiest in 2020? The top 10 included:

1. Finland
2. Iceland
3. Denmark
4. Switzerland
5. Netherlands
6. Sweden
7. Germany
8. Norway
9. New Zealand
10. Austria

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Let us be grateful to the people who make us happy; they are the charming gardeners who make our souls blossom.”
–Marcel Proust, French novelist

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-of-america-fund-manager-survey-for-march-2021-121053204.html
https://www.barrons.com/articles/investors-are-wary-of-covid-but-their-new-top-risk-is-inflation-51616197535?mod=hp_DAY_10 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/03-22-21_Barrons-Investors_are_Wary_of_COVID_But_Their_New_Top_Risk_is_Inflation-Footnote2.pdf)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/discountrate.htm
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-bond-market-is-fighting-the-fed-and-yield-sensitive-assets-are-getting-hit-51616094084?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_1 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/03-22-21_Barrons-The_Bond_Market_is_Fighting_the_Fed_and_Yield-Sensitive_Assets_are_Getting_Hit-Footnote_4.pdf)
https://apnews.com/article/why-rising-rates-unsettling-wall-street-explained-4a672f914e9396a9e9bcda44eebf74d6
https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/03-22-21_Barrons-Market_Data-Footnote_6.pdf)
https://happiness-report.s3.amazonaws.com/2021/WHR+21.pdf (pages 18, 34-39, 50, 168)
https://www.economist.com/international/2021/03/20/the-pandemic-has-changed-the-shape-of-global-happiness (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/03-22-21_TheEconomist-The_Pandemic_has_Changed_the_Shape_of_Global_Happiness-Footnote_8.pdf)
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/happiness