The Markets
It was a record-setting month.

“Sell in May and Go Away” was an investment strategy promoted by the Stock Trader's Almanac. The idea was based on historic research that suggested holding stocks, as represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), from November to April delivered better returns than holding stocks all year round.

“What [the research] didn't note is that if one used the S&P 500 index, which dates to 1927, one would have found the opposite: the summers almost always outperformed the winters,” reported Troy Segal of Investopedia.

This year, most investors were happy with stock performance in May as the United States delivered one of the strongest monthly performances on record. Martin Baccardax of Barron’s explained, “The S&P 500…was on pace to power more than 5 [percent] higher…marking one of the best performances in May since the 1950s, on the back of surging chip and tech stocks that have carried markets through the worst of the U.S. war with Iran.”

However, the performance comes with an important caveat. Market breadth – the number of stocks participating in the rally – was low. A source cited by Connor Smith of Barron’s stated:

“While the overall market is at all-time peaks, only two of the eleven sectors have managed to reach that status…It is a very rare situation indeed to be talking about a stock market at record highs at the same time that the Financials, of all sectors, are very nearly in correction mode (down nearly -10 [percent] from the record highs).”

Last week, major U.S. stock indexes finished the month at record highs amid strong company earnings reports and hopes for peace between the U.S. and Iran, reported Avi Salzman of Barron’s. Yields on intermediate- and longer-term maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved lower over the week.

WHAT’S THE RIGHT WITHDRAWAL RATE IN RETIREMENT? One of the most common questions in retirement planning is also one of the most difficult to answer: How much can I safely withdraw from my portfolio each year? Many people hope for a simple answer, a percentage that will work for everyone, but different people have different needs.

The answer may be found between 3.9 percent and 5.7 percent

According to Morningstar’s The State of Retirement Income: 2025, a new retiree seeking a stable, inflation-adjusted income over a 30-year retirement could start with a withdrawal rate of about 3.9 percent. The estimate assumed the retiree’s portfolio was invested 30 to 50 percent in stocks with the rest in bonds and/or cash.

“Because a 3.9 [percent] withdrawal rate—or just $39,000 on a $1 million portfolio—might be a bitter pill to swallow for new retirees, we also examined how flexible strategies can help boost starting safe withdrawal rates. Flexible strategies are effective because they help to prevent retirees from overspending in periods of market weakness, while giving them a raise in stronger market environments,” reported Amy C. Arnott, Christine Benz, and Jason Kephart of Morningstar.

The researchers found that retirees who are willing to make modest spending adjustments over time may be able to support higher withdrawal rates. Some spending strategies supported initial withdrawal rates approaching 5.7 percent. However, the strategies generally required retirees to accept the possibility of variable income in each year of retirement.

Retirement income is not a simple math problem
Your retirement income strategy will reflect your lifestyle and legacy goals, as well as other factors. One retiree may prefer a stable income and choose a more conservative initial withdrawal rate, while another may be comfortable with variable income and choose to make systematic adjustments to spending. Retirement planning often involves tradeoffs.

If you would like to talk about your plan or discuss retirement income strategies, get in touch. We’re here for you.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“Chinese farm owner Zuo Xiaoyong was stunned to see his job ad for shepherds to work in the remote and rugged grasslands south of Mongolia becoming the day's top trending social media post. More than 700 people applied for the two positions, ‌including white-collar employees from megacities Shanghai and Chongqing, factory workers across China, and even university graduates…the shepherds would each get 8,000 yuan ($1,178) per month, well above the national urban average in private companies of roughly 6,000 yuan, and have accommodation and groceries provided.”
― Liangping Gao and Marius Zaharia, Reuters via Yahoo!, May 27, 2026

Sources:

https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/strategy.aspx

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sell-in-may-and-go-away.asp

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-tech-micron-nvidia-amd-4803938b?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1_B_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/06-01-26-Barrons-Sell-in-May-%203.pdf

https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-052926?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/06-01-26-Barrons-Nasdaq-Nears-Best%20-%204.pdf

https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-stock-market-may-soon-regret-the-end-of-earnings-season-96e8d83f? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/06-01-26-Barrons-Stock-Market-May-Soon%20-%205.pdf

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=202605

https://www.morningstar.com/content/cs-assets/v3/assets/blt9415ea4cc4157833/bltb73b87c5d0c70ead/692f43f57737a31596684522/working_file_11.19_FINAL_REVISE.pdf or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/06-01-36-Morningstar-State-of-Retirement-Income%20-%207.pdf

https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/whats-safe-retirement-withdrawal-rate-2026

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-ad-shepherds-goes-viral-060242204.html

The Markets

Feeling the pinch of rising prices.

The cost of living is increasing in many places around the world. “The war has sent oil prices soaring and led to shortages of products like jet fuel. Coal prices have also risen as some power companies switch to coal from natural gas to generate electricity. Countries that depend on other fuel sources—from renewables to nuclear power—have been spared some of the economic hardship so far,” reported Avi Salzman of Barron’s

In April, prices in the United States rose at an annual rate of 3.8 percent, with energy prices up 17.9 percent year over year. That was a significant increase from the prior month when prices rose at an annual rate of 3.3 percent, with energy prices rising at a 12.5 percent pace.

For Americans, higher prices have been especially noticeable at the gas pump.

Last Saturday, the average price for regular gasoline was $4.53 per gallon in the United States, and the price of diesel (used by long-haul trucks moving goods across the U.S.) was $5.63 per gallon, according to AAA. Overall, estimates suggest that Americans have spent an extra $20 billion on gasoline due to the war with Iran, reported Enda Curran, Mark Schroers, Ye Xie, and Jorgelina Do Rosario of Bloomberg.

Americans are not feeling optimistic
When economists want to know how people feel about their personal financial situations and the economy in general, they look at consumer sentiment. In May, the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped, reflecting continued concerns about the economy and what may happen over the next year.

“Sentiment is now just below the previous historical trough seen in June 2022. The cost of living continues to be a first-order concern, with 57 [percent] of consumers spontaneously mentioning that high prices were eroding their personal finances, up from 50 [percent] last month,” wrote Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.

Last week, solid company earnings and signs of progress toward an agreement with Iran pushed major U.S. stock indexes higher for the eighth week in a row, reported Karishma Vanjani of Barron’s. Yields on U.S. Treasuries eased a bit last week.

WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT AMERICA’S MONEY MOOD? While U.S. consumer sentiment is lower overall, not every American household experiences the economy the same way. Some families are stretching to cover basic expenses, while others are buoyed by strong investment returns. Test your knowledge by taking this brief quiz.

1. According to a recent Gallup poll, what financial issue did Americans say was the top problem facing their families this year?
2. Student loan payments
3. Cost of living/inflation
4. Lack of retirement savings
5. Credit card debt

2. Seventy-three percent of Americans describe one issue as a “very big problem” in a recent Pew Research Center survey. What was it?
3. Unemployment
4. Artificial intelligence
5. Healthcare affordability
6. Stock market volatility

3. Americans experience the economy differently depending on their income level. Teresa Rivas of Barron’s wrote that one factor has helped bolster the finances of many higher-income households. What factor was it?
4. Lower mortgage rates
5. Falling healthcare costs
6. Stock market performance
7. Reduced grocery prices

4. According to a recent Gallup survey, what percentage of Americans are moderately or very worried they won’t have enough money for retirement?
5. 30 percent
6. 48 percent
7. 62 percent
8. 87 percent

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“In the history of art there are periods when bread seems so beautiful that it nearly gets into museums.”
― Janet Flanner, Journalist

The Markets

The stock market rally continued.

April ended with the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) and Nasdaq Composite Indexes at record-high levels, having delivered their best monthly returns since 2020, reported Connor Smith of Barron’s. In April, investors:

• Leaned into optimism, remaining hopeful for progress in the Middle East. Paul R. LaMonica of Barron’s reported, “Markets are looking beyond the Iran war to a year of healthy profits and stock gains. Investors in our latest Big Money poll share that sentiment. Despite the Middle East conflict and other hurdles facing the economy, more than 54 [percent] of Big Money participants said they had a bullish outlook for the next 12 months, up from 47 [percent] in our survey in October.”

• Embraced “pick-and-shovel” companies. During the gold rush, some of the most profitable businesses provided the tools gold miners needed. Today, pick-and-shovel companies provide semiconductor chips and other datacenter necessities. So, while concerns persist about the enormous amounts being spent on artificial intelligence, investors have enthusiastically embraced the beneficiaries of that spending, reported Smith.

• Focused on corporate earnings. Strong overall corporate earnings also drove stock prices higher. At the end of last week, 63 percent of S&P 500 companies had reported first quarter earnings. The blended net profit margin for the Index was 14.7 percent. If profits remain at this level, it will be the highest net profit margin reported since FactSet began tracking it in 2009, reported John Butters of FactSet.

Last week, major U.S. stock markets finished the week higher. Yields on many maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher over the week, as well.

THE BOND MARKET WAS LESS OPTIMISTIC THAN THE STOCK MARKET. While stock markets rallied to new highs last week, the bond market moved in the other direction. In the United States, yields on Treasuries rose while prices fell. Jared Blikre of Yahoo! Finance reported:

“The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield…is back near the danger zone that has sent stocks tumbling before. That zone is roughly 5 [percent]...But this is not just a U.S. story. Global bonds have been under pressure, with yields rising across major markets as investors reassess inflation, central bank policy, and government debt supply.”

In the United States, inflation, central bank policy, and government spending were top of mind last week.

Inflation moved in the wrong direction, rising to a two-year high. In March, Americans spent significantly more on gasoline and energy, health care, cars and parts, and insurance. The personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index, which is one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred measures of inflation, showed:

• Headline inflation rose to 3.5 percent annualized in March (from 2.8 percent annualized in February).
• Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose to 3.2 percent annualized in March (from 3.0 percent annualized in February).

The Fed left rates unchanged. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) rate-setting body, kept the range for the federal funds rate at 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent. The accompanying statement confirmed that:

• Economic growth is steady,
• Employment gains have remained low, on average,
• Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2 percent target, and
• Conflict in the Middle East has created a high level of economic uncertainty.

There was dissent among committee members. “Four officials voted against the decision, including three who objected to language in their post-meeting statement that suggested the central bank would eventually resume cutting rates,” reported Catarina Saraiva of Bloomberg. The possibility of a rate hike surprised markets, and yields on shorter-term Treasuries increased.

Government spending lifted economic growth. Usually, consumer spending is the primary driver of economic growth in the United States. Last quarter, consumer spending cooled and economic growth was driven by business investment and government spending.

While improving economic growth is wonderful, higher government spending is less so. Last week, Fitch Ratings warned that the U.S. deficit and debt are far larger than those of other countries with an AA rating. Fitch reported, “The fiscal position [of the United States] will deteriorate in 2026 due to tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), although tariff revenues will offset half the OBBBA’s fiscal impact.”

Taken together, last week's data painted a complex picture for investors. Rising stock markets, higher inflation, a divided Fed, and a cautious bond market serve as important reminders to stay diversified and maintain a long-term perspective in uncertain times.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“He that can have patience can have what he will.”
―  Benjamin Franklin, Poor Richard's Almanack

Sources:

https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-043026/card/s-p-500-nasdaq-hits-records-meta-s-troubles-are-the-market-s-gains--vkAFbZckZvQvV6cXaOul? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-04-2026-Barrons-S&P-500-Nasdaq-Hit-Records%20-%201.pdf

https://www.barrons.com/articles/barrons-big-money-poll-stock-market-outlook-5461949d or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-04-2026-Barrons-Dont-Fret-the-War%20-%202.pdf

https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_050126.pdf, page 15

https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-04-2026-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%204.pdf

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/the-bond-market-is-testing-washington-again-chart-of-the-day-100000179.html

https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-march-2026 (Report plus Table 2.8.11, line 32 and 37, see pdf)

https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-04/pi0325.pdf

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-04-2026-bea-National-Income-and-Product-Accounts%20-%209.pdf

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-29/fed-holds-rates-three-officials-dissent-against-easing-bias?itm_source=record&itm_campaign=The_Fed&itm_content=Fed_Holds_Rates-1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-04-2026-Bloomberg-Divided-Fed-Holds-Rates%20-%2011.pdf

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&categories=survey#eyJhcHBpZCI6MTksInN0ZXBzIjpbMSwyLDNdLCJkYXRhIjpbWyJjYXRlZ29yaWVzIiwiU3VydmV5Il0sWyJOSVBBX1RhYmxlX0xpc3QiLCIzMiJdXX0= or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/05-04-2026-bea-National-Data%20-%2012.pdf

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/widening-us-deficit-climbing-debt-are-key-sovereign-rating-challenge-30-04-2026

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/patience

The Markets

It’s all about how you slice the index pie.

Last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) closed at a new record high even though 329 of its 500 stocks lost value, reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.

How is that possible? The S&P 500 is a capitalization-weighted index.

Imagine the S&P 500 as a pie. Each stock in the index is one slice of that pie, and all of the slices are different sizes. The size of each company’s slice is determined by its market capitalization. (Market capitalization is a stock’s share price times the number of shares outstanding). For example, if:

• Company A has a stock price of $50 and 100 shares outstanding, then it has a capitalization of $5000.
• Company B has a stock price of $100 and 1000 shares outstanding, then it has a capitalization of $100,000.

If both companies were in the S&P 500, Company B would be a bigger slice in the index pie.

One of the companies with the largest slices of S&P 500 pie is a chipmaker with a share price of about $200 and more than 20 billion shares outstanding. Its capitalization was recently more than $5 trillion.

A company of this size is called a mega-cap company because it’s so large. When mega-cap company stocks gain value, they can pull the entire S&P 500 up, even when smaller companies are flagging, reported Adam Hayes of Investopedia.

In contrast, if the S&P 500 was equal-weighted, every company’s slice would be the same size. As a result, every stock would have equal influence, so the index’s performance would reflect the performance of all of the companies. If most stocks were falling, then an equal-weighted index would probably move lower.

From a practical perspective, when a capitalization-weighted index is rising, and most of its stocks are falling, then a handful of sizeable companies are performing exceptionally well. Last week, a small group of companies in the S&P 500 did exceptionally well.

It’s still early in earnings season, which is the time when companies let investors know how they performed in the previous quarter. With 28 percent of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results so far, the index is on track to report its highest net profit margin (+13.4 percent) in more than 15 years. The Information Technology sector is leading the way with profits for the companies that have reported so far up 29.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026 compared to up 25.4 percent in the first quarter of last year, according to John Butters of FactSet.

“Semiconductor stocks are in the midst of a historic run, a winning streak that is every bit as impressive as Joe DiMaggio’s famous stretch of 56 straight games with a hit,” reported Paul R. La Monica of Barron’s.

Last week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite finished the week higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost value. In addition, yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher over the week.

RETIREMENT CONFIDENCE FALLS. Stock markets have been climbing higher, but many Americans are feeling less optimistic about retirement. In fact, retirement confidence in the United States dropped significantly in 2026 on worries about Social Security, Medicare and inflation, according to the 2026 Retirement Confidence Survey conducted by the Employee Benefits Research Institute and Greenwald Research.

In 2026, American workers are less confident than they were in 2025 that they’ll have enough money to pay for basic expenses in retirement. Just 58 percent of workers and 71 percent of retirees are confident they will have enough money to keep up with inflation and cost of living in retirement. People who participated in the Retirement Confidence Survey were:

Alicia Munnell and Gal Wettstein of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College reported on a survey that found Americans across the wealth spectrum have become more concerned about the impacts of potential changes to Social Security and Medicare on their retirement plans. The concerns have led some to begin saving more for emergencies, delaying retirement, and/or investing more conservatively.

Decisions like these should not be made lightly. For example, investing more conservatively may be a sound choice or it could a choice that makes it more difficult to reach a comfortable retirement. It depends on individual circumstances and goals. Investing conservatively can reduce short-term ups and downs, but it also can limit long-term growth potential and the benefits of compounding.

If you have questions about retirement, please get in touch. We’re happy to review your plan or help you build one.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“Plans are nothing; planning is everything.”

―  Dwight D. Eisenhower, Former U.S. President

Sources:

https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-042426/card/the-s-p-nasdaq-hit-fresh-highs-market-breadth-is-terrible--LSnyu8Ofaq3jG05pVN45 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-27-26-Barrons-The-S&P-Nasdaq-Hit%20-%201.pdf

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitalizationweightedindex.asp

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/key-statistics/

https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_042426.pdf

https://www.barrons.com/articles/semiconductor-stocks-rally-take-profits-now-28e9edb6?mod=hp_LEDE_C_2_B_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-27-26-Barrons-Semiconductor-Stocks-Winning-Streak%20-%204.pdf

https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV r go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-27-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-5.pdf

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026

https://www.ebri.org/docs/default-source/rcs/2026-rcs/2026-rcs-release-report.pdf?sfvrsn=1229022f_1 (Page 4 and charts)

https://www.ebri.org/docs/default-source/rcs/2025-rcs/2025-rcs-release-report.pdf?sfvrsn=f5e3042f_5 (Page 4 and charts)

https://crr.bc.edu/the-impact-of-financial-advisors-since-the-uptick-in-policy-risk/

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/wealth-management-insights/risks-of-investing-conservatively

https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/dwight_d_eisenhower_149111

The Markets

The market completes a 180.

One of the most exciting driving sequences in movies may be the scene from Baby Driver when “Baby” (a reluctant getaway driver) slings a red Subaru into a narrow 180-degree turn, slides backward between obstacles, and immediately pivots into another 180-degree turn, all while perfectly in sync with the beat of his music.

Since mid-February, the U.S. stock market has offered a similarly exciting ride.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) was closing in on a record high level (7,000) in late February. Then the U.S. military conflict with Iran began and markets drifted lower. The S&P 500 hit bottom in late March when talk of a ceasefire inspired a 180 in outlook and U.S. stocks headed in the other direction. The index recovered lost value incredibly quickly. On Tax Day, it closed above 7,000 for the first time, reported Martin Baccardax of Barron’s.

There were three main drivers behind the remarkable recovery. These included:

1. Enthusiasm about the prospect of peace. Investor optimism surged on the possibility of an end to the Middle East conflict. “The stock market has now delivered a year’s return in about two weeks. While that might not be quite as impressive as all summer in a day, it’s been enough to provide a genuine reset for investors. The ‘end’ of the Iran war spurred a market celebration this week, even if the conflict is nowhere near officially over,” reported Teresa Rivas of Barron’s. 

Over the 12 trading days of April through last Friday, the Nasdaq Composite Index had a double-digit gain, while the S&P 500 was up more than 8 percent, reported Rivas.

1. Excitement – again – about artificial intelligence (AI). Concerns about AI capacity being overbuilt and worries that data centers might not prove profitable, have faded amid rising demand, reported Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway of Bloomberg.

“…AI can just do more as the models get better (not just cheaper), and obtain new capabilities, and this improvement should also be seen as a source of new demand. If, for example, [a new AI product] is as amazing at cybersecurity as all the hype says, then I’d expect we’ll see a big surge in AI consumption from people who work on securing computer networks.”

Investors’ appetite for AI is reflected in the performance of the S&P 500. Forty percent of its recent gains are owed to five of the biggest tech companies in the index, all are members of the Magnificent Seven, reported Baccardax.

1. A strong start to earnings season. Just 10 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported on their performance during the first quarter. Among that group, more than 80 percent have reported positive revenue and earnings surprises. A positive surprise occurs when a company does better than analysts expected. In the first quarter of 2026, many of the companies that have reported took in more money and were more profitable than analysts anticipated, according to John Butters at FactSet.

Last week, major U.S. stock indices finished the week higher. In addition, yields on most maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved lower over the week.

THE INFRASTRUCTURE TEST. Recently, heavy storms in the Midwest and elsewhere have severely tested aging U.S. infrastructure. There have been significant failures in flood defenses, power grids, and transportation networks, reported Anna Skinner of Newsweek.

 Since 1998, the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) has evaluated infrastructure in the United States every two years. The authors of the 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure explained why the analysis is important:

“America’s infrastructure is the foundation on which our national economy, global competitiveness, and quality of life depend. While often taken for granted when it is working properly, every American household or business immediately feels the impact of just one inefficiency or failure in our built environment.”

Poorly maintained infrastructure is costly. The ASCE found that “potholes damaging our vehicles, traffic delays leading to lost productivity and increased costs for products, aging water lines leading to spiking water rates, etc. – costs each American household $2,700 per year.”

How well is the United States maintaining its infrastructure?

The most recent Report Card for America’s Infrastructure graded 18 categories of infrastructure, and the grades weren’t good. The lowest marks were for systems that affect millions of Americans: a D- for transit and a D for stormwater.

Overall, U.S. infrastructure earned a ‘C’, meaning mediocre condition; requires attention. Here’s how America’s infrastructure fared:

For investors, deteriorating infrastructure can weigh on local economies, raise business operating costs, and (when spending accelerates) create opportunities for growth in industries that benefit.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“Always do what is right. It will gratify half of mankind and astound the other.”
― Mark Twain, Author

The Markets

The first three months of 2026 felt a bit like summer school.

In summer school, students learn a lot in a short amount of time. A normal semester gives students about 15 to 17 weeks to learn, but summer classes cram all that information into 6 to 8 weeks. The lessons move quickly and it can be hard to keep up.

That’s what the markets felt like in the first quarter of the year. Investors had to take in a lot of new information very quickly to keep up with economic data, interest rate changes, and global events. Here is a brief recap:

• Enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) tempered. “Technology stocks have been pummeled since peaking in October amid growing concern about whether hefty spending on artificial intelligence will pay off, while more recently the escalating war in Iran further dented risk appetites,” reported Alexandra Semenova of Bloomberg.

• Investors looked past geopolitics – until they didn’t. Geopolitical upheaval has been a hallmark of 2026. We’ve seen a United States military incursion into Venezuela, strong talk about the U.S. invading Greenland and Cuba, and policy choices that have reshaped global alliances and rewired the world economy. Investors took it all in stride until recently.

“The world and the markets changed on Feb. 28, when the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran. In the opening days, investors believed the war would be brief…Over a month has passed, and not only is the war continuing and the Strait still closed, but there has also been significant damage to a key LNG facility in Qatar and a pair of major aluminum production plants,” reported Tom Lauricella of Morningstar.

• Expectations for rate hikes instead of rate cuts. In 2025, the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut the federal funds rate three times. At the start of this year, with inflation closing in on the Fed’s target and employment softening, market analysts anticipated the Fed would continue to lower the rate in 2026, reported Sarah Hanson of Morningstar.

That’s no longer the case. “Economies around the world are coping with an energy shock that has revived inflation worries, opened the door to interest rate hikes instead of cuts, and raised concerns about slowing economic growth,” reported Lauricella.

• US. Treasury yields rose. Before the Middle East conflict began, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury (a benchmark for mortgage rates) moved briefly below 4 percent. After military action began, the yield moved higher and finished at 4.35 percent last week.

• Government debt climbed. “The United States just marked another unfortunate milestone: surpassing $39 trillion in national debt. This level of debt is more than the economic output of China and the entire Eurozone, combined. As a percentage of GDP, our debt levels are close to the level of debt after World War II. Worse still, U.S. debt is accelerating relative to history; put another way, we are adding debt faster than ever,” reported the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.

• Companies continued to perform well. Publicly traded companies have proved nimble, adapting to the rapid pace of political and economic change. During the last three months of 2025, in aggregate, companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) reported earnings growth of 14.0 percent. It was the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth, reported John Butters of FactSet.

Early last week, the S&P 500 was on the brink of correction, down 9.1 percent (a 10 percent decline signals a correction) when it rebounded. Investor optimism about an early end to the Middle East conflict, along with unexpected economic data showing strong employment gains for March and improved activity in the manufacturing sector drove stocks higher. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond ended the week at 4.91 percent.

IS IT AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE OR ISN’T IT? On April 1, it can be difficult to tell truth from fiction. Brands get bold, headlines get weird, and even your most trustworthy friends might be in on the joke. Here’s a challenge. Read through these short descriptions of news stories. Two are classic April Fool’s pranks designed to trick, delight, or confuse. One is real. Think you can spot it?

Story 1: The last days of paper currency

“The days of pulling a crumpled $20 bill out of your wallet may be numbered. The U.S. Treasury has officially greenlit a sweeping monetary overhaul that will replace all paper currency with a combination of government-issued cryptocurrency and physical gold coins by 2027. The plan calls for a full phase-out of paper money in favor of two new official forms of payment: TrumpCoin, a blockchain-based digital currency, and a line of gold coins embossed with the president’s likeness…,’” reported Laura Beck of GoBanking Rates.com.

Story 2: AI agents hire humans

There’s a new job board online. While it looks a lot like other websites that connect freelance talent to companies that need it, there’s a big difference. Instead of humans looking for human help, this website is for AI agents that need human help, explained Reece Rogers of Wired. The company’s website states: AI needs your body. Get paid when agents need someone in the real world.

Story 3: Pants that improve your golf game

For years, [a top golf brand] has helped golfers improve their game. It offers insights on every club and every shot. Its rangefinder factors in wind, slope, and atmospheric pressure. In April, the company introduced smart pants, an innovation that continuously monitors players’ key performance indicators as they traverse a course. The biometric trousers track “heart rate variability, stress levels, and first-tee anxiety,” according to the company.

While smart golf pants may be on the horizon, they’re not here yet. The U.S. currency change is also April Fool’s mischief. The fact is that AI agents really are hiring humans to complete real-world tasks!

What was your favorite April Fool’s joke this year?

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“There is nothing in the world so irresistibly contagious as laughter and good humor.”
― Charles Dickens, Author

Sources:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-30/rout-in-big-tech-stocks-sends-a-signal-that-has-preceded-gains or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-06-26-Bloomberg-Big-Tech-Stocks-Rout%20-%201.pdf

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/features/2026-03-22/iran-war-trump-is-making-america-weaker-and-stronger or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-06-26-Bloomberg-Trump-Is-Making-America%20-%202.pdf

https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/05/world/greenland-cuba-iran-trump-warning-intl

https://www.morningstar.com/markets/6-charts-that-define-first-quarter-markets

https://www.morningstar.com/markets/whats-next-fed-2026

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026

https://www.pgpf.org/article/the-united-states-is-adding-to-the-national-debt-faster-than-ever/

https://insight.factset.com/earnings-insight-infographic-q4-2025-by-the-numbers

https://www.barrons.com/articles/bull-market-stocks-wall-street-a07d4b80? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-06-26-Barrons-This-Market-Has-Charged%20-%209.pdf

https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-manufacturing-rebound-oil-shock-risks-e7f70656? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-06-26-Barrons-US-Maufacturing-Rebound%20-%2010.pdf

https://www.gobankingrates.com/money/economy/us-treasury-approves-president-trumps-plan-to-phase-out-paper-money/

https://www.wired.com/story/i-tried-rentahuman-ai-agents-hired-me-to-hype-their-ai-startups/

https://www.arccosgolf.com/blogs/community/introducing-arccos-smart-pants-the-first-intelligent-golf-pants?

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/laughter