Dear Clients and Friends,
Are We in a Bubble?
According toThe Economist, the U.S. market may be in a giant bubble—one that could burst with a 50% drop, rivaling the Dot Com bust of 2000 and the Great Recession of 2007. You’ll see those bear markets on the attached Page Four Chart.
Bear Markets: A Pattern Worth Watching
In the past 99 years, the market has endured 22 bear attacks—defined as drops of 20% or more—roughly one every 4.7 years (source: Yardeni & Associates). But recent history has been more aggressive:
- March 23, 2000: -34% (bear)
- October 12, 2022: -25% (bear)
- April 7, 2025: -18% (almost a bear)
That’s nearly three bear markets in just over five years. We’re not due for a break—we’re due for vigilance.
A Volatile Climate
Today’s political landscape may be even more charged than the early ’70s, when Nixon, Watergate, and Vietnam triggered a -48% market slide. In the past year alone:
- Trump Assassination Attempt
- Trump Wins
- Doge-Doge-Doge
- Tariffs
Market dip (Feb 12–Apr 7)
Rocket rebound - Peace in the Middle East (briefly?)
- Ongoing: Ukraine/Russia, Government Shutdown, U.S.–China tensions, National Guard deployments
Anything Can Happen
This is not the time for autopilot investing. Headlines move markets. That’s why we actively manage your portfolio. We don’t park it in some pie-chart allocations.
At RFS, we stay alert. We monitor every ETF in our growth model (all day, every day). We track breaking news. We protect your gains.
Our Growth Model
As of 3:39 PM today, our 11 ETF positions show an unrealized gain of 16.60%. We intend to keep it that way. If you’d like a breakdown of each ETF and our rationale, reply to this email and I’ll send you the details.
For urgent questions, call my cell: 240-401-2355.
Wishing you a strong and peaceful fall,
Jack and the RFS Team
P.S.Want a preview of my new book? Chapters 1–2 are attached—readable on desktop or mobile.
Attachments:
(1) Page Four Chart JP Morgan p 4
(2) Our Aggressive Growth Model Model Account
(3) Chapters 1–2 of my new book Chapters 1 and 2 Compliments of Jack