The world is adapting to a changing reality.

As the war in Ukraine intensified last week, financial markets grappled with uncertainty.

“After watching financial markets gyrate from hour to hour as Russia attacked Ukraine, I was getting dizzy myself,” reported Jeff Sommer of The New York Times. “People in Ukraine were dying. The Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, put his nuclear forces on alert, and Western sanctions were beginning to bite. One moment stocks were up, the next they were falling. Then they were up again.”

Sanctions have economists revising expectations for global growth and inflation, reported Randall Forsyth of Barron’s. The chief economist at a leading financial institution anticipates that rising commodity prices (oil, gas, grains and palladium) are likely to push inflation higher than it might have been otherwise in 2022, and slow global economic growth. The Russian economy is expected to sink deep into recession, contracting by 35 percent in the second quarter of 2022, reported Karin Strohecker of Reuters.

War in Europe wasn’t the only concern for investors last week, though.

China’s deflating property bubble also created uneasiness. The property sector accounts for about 25 percent of China’s economy. Since last July, when Beijing limited Chinese property developers’ access to credit, a dozen developers have defaulted on bonds, reported The Economist. A bond default occurs when the bond issuer fails to make an interest or principal payment.

“The implications go far beyond the offshore bond market. Construction has stalled in places. Some developers are now selling assets to patch up their cash flows. Many have stopped buying land, causing the value of parcels sold by local governments to crater by 72% in January year on year. Home prices are falling in many cities…”

In the United States, economic data confirmed the resilience of the American economy as it recovers from the pandemic. February’s employment report, which was released last Friday, showed jobs growth accelerated as the number of new COVID-19 cases slowed. Unemployment fell to 3.8 percent with 678,000 new jobs created. It was notable that about two-thirds of the jobs created were in service sectors (leisure and hospitality, retail, and professional and business services).

Major U.S. stock indices finished the week lower, reported Ben Levisohn of Barron’s. Bond yields bounced around a bit last week as investors tried to make sense of war, sanctions and pending Federal Reserve rate hikes. The Treasury yield curve ended the week flatter, reported Karen Brettell of Reuters.

What gives life meaning? Last spring, Pew Research asked people in several countries: What aspects of your life do you currently find meaningful, fulfilling or satisfying?

The No. 1 answer (out of the 17 options) in most countries was “family and children.” The exceptions were Spain (health), South Korea (material well-being), and Taiwan (society).

• In the United States friends ranked second in the hierarchy of things that give life meaning, followed by material well-being.
• In the United Kingdom, friends ranked second, followed by hobbies.
• In Australia, New Zealand and Sweden occupation ranked second, followed by friends.
• In Greece, France and Germany occupation ranked second, followed by health.
• In Italy, Netherlands and Japan, material well-being ranked second, followed by health.
• In Canada, occupation ranked second, followed by material well-being.
• In Belgium and Spain, material well-being ranked second, followed by occupation.
• In Singapore, occupation ranked second, followed by society.
• In Taiwan, material well-being ranked second, followed by family and children.
• In South Korea, health ranked second, followed by family and children.

It’s interesting to note that freedom appears to be widely taken for granted. It was most highly valued in Netherlands where it was mentioned by 20 percent of survey participants. Belgium and New Zealand also ranked it more highly than other nations (15 percent each). Freedom was mentioned least often in the U.K. (5 percent), Singapore (5 percent), and Japan (6 percent).

In the United States, just 9 percent of Americans – fewer than one in 10 – said freedom gives their lives meaning.

 Weekly Focus – Think About It`
“Even with all of the things that are so awful, if you walk into your yard and stay there looking at almost anything for five minutes, you will be stunned by how marvelous life is and how incredibly lucky we are to have it.”
—Alice Walker, novelist and poet

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/business/ukraine-putin-markets.html (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/03-07-22_New%20York%20Times_Talking%20War%20and%20Market%20Volatility%20With%20a%20Giant%20of%20Economics_1.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/putin-russia-ukraine-global-economy-51646443355?refsec=up-and-down-wall-street (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/03-07-22_Barrons_Putins%20War%20Puts%20Russias%20Economy%20in%20Its%20Crosshairs_2.pdf)
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/jpmorgan-shock-russian-gdp-will-be-akin-1998-crisis-2022-03-03/
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/china-scrambles-to-prevent-property-pandemonium/21807940 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/03-07-22_The%20Economist_China%20Scrambles%20to%20Prevent%20Property%20Pandemonium_4.pdf)
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/default2.asp
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-dow-nasdaq-sp-500-russia-ukraine-51646438347?refsec=the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/03-07-22_Barrons_The%20Worst%20is%20Yet%20to%20Come%20for%20the%20Stock%20Market_8.pdf)
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bonds-idUSL2N2V62K5
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/11/PG_11.18.21_meaning-of-life_Topline.pdf
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/interactives/meaning-in-life/data/family_children
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/interactives/meaning-in-life/data/freedom
https://www.brainyquote.com/authors/alice-walker-quotes

Investors’ appetite for risk diminished as the Russian threat to Ukraine intensified.

Volatility was high last week as investors guessed and second-guessed how markets would react if Russia invaded Ukraine and sanctions were imposed on Russia. They also wondered what would happen if Russia pulled back. The questions are difficult to answer. Adam Samson, Valentina Romei and Matthew Rocco of Financial Times reported:

“Economists can at least attempt to predict the outcome of central bank decisions by building models based on data, commentary from officials and historical precedent. But the outcome of the stand-off between Russia and the west is a type of so-called tail risk that could have major implications for the global economy, yet cannot be easily or accurately modelled. The sense of uncertainty has begun creeping into financial markets.”

Heightened geopolitical tension wasn’t the only concern for investors. They also contemplated whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) can tame inflation without hurting economic growth. The Fed is expected to continue to tighten monetary policy by raising the Fed funds rate in March, and reducing its balance sheet throughout 2022, reported Davide Barbuscia of Reuters.

Uncertainty about how markets would react if Russia invaded Ukraine caused some investors to favor safe-haven investments. As a result, last week:

• Treasury rates moved lower. Normally, a pending Fed rate increase would push interest rates higher. Last week, however, the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes dropped below 2 percent as investors sought safe havens.
• Gold prices moved higher. “After surging in 2020, [the price of gold] has essentially traded sideways for the past 18 months… Now it’s on the move…Gold is often thought of as protection against inflation, but it’s really protection against chaos—and the situation in Ukraine certainly counts as chaos. That has helped push the price of gold up 5.8% in February,” reported Ben Levisohn of Barron’s.

Major U.S. stock indices moved lower last week and came close to correction territory, reported Barron’s. Corrections occur when assets, indexes, or markets decline by 10 to 20 percent. When the market corrects it is not a pleasant experience, but corrections are not unusual. It’s likely markets will remain bumpy in the coming weeks.

The great college debates. During the past two decades, pundits across the United States have launched all kinds of debates about college and its importance. They have asked:

• Is college a good investment? In 2011, as the economy and Americans slowly recovered from the Great Recession, the idea that “college, the perennial hope for the next generation, may not be worth the price of the sheepskin on which it prints its degrees,” gained popularity, reported Daniel Smith of New York Magazine.

 Which college majors are worth the cost? As everyone weighed the value of knowledge against the cost of attaining it, news media began reporting on the highest paying college majors. In general, science, technology, engineering and math majors tend to receive the highest incomes after graduation, according to Payscale’s 2021 College Salary Report.

 Should employers remove college degree requirements from job listings? Today, some are looking at the college picture from a different perspective. “According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, between 2010 and 2019, 36% of Americans ages 25 and older had a bachelor’s degree or higher. Yet 65% of job listings still require postsecondary education and 61% of HR and business leaders say they throw out resumes without college degrees even if the candidate is qualified,” reported Hunter Johnson in Forbes.

There is evidence that college degrees improve economic outcomes, overall. As with almost anything, though, there are exceptions. In 2021, the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce reported:

“The lifetime earnings of a full-time full-year worker with a high school diploma are $1.6 million, while workers with associates degree earn $2 million. However, at least one quarter of high school graduates earn more than associates degree holders. Bachelor’s degree holders earn a median of $2.8 million during their career, 75% more than if they had only a high school diploma. Master’s degree holders earn a median of $3.2 million over their lifetimes, while doctoral degree holders earn $4 million and professional degree holders earn $4.7 million. However, one quarter of workers with a bachelor’s degree earn more than half of workers with a master’s or a doctoral degree.”

The debate about college costs and payoffs continues. However, some companies are deciding that talent and a strong work ethic are just as important as a college degree, and have begun removing degree requirements for job applicants, reported Glassdoor.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“No thief, however skillful, can rob one of knowledge, and that is why knowledge is the best and safest treasure to acquire.”
—L. Frank Baum, Author

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-war-ukraine-russia-51645234452?mod=hp_LEAD_2 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/02-21-22_Barrons_What%20Will%20Stocks%20Do%20if%20War%20or%20Peace%20Erupts%20in%20Ukraine_1.pdf)
https://www.ft.com/content/6f198784-c938-4674-af6f-d760b18fcb2d (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/02-21-22_Financial%20Times_How%20Will%20Geopolitical%20Tensions%20Affect%20Markets_2.pdf)
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/investors-worry-about-hawkish-fed-hurting-growth-even-theorize-over-next-2022-01-26/
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2022
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-gold-rush-is-on-its-not-too-late-to-get-in-51645232932?mod=hp_LEAD_1 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/02-21-22_Barrons_The%20Gold%20Rush%20is%20On_5.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-markets-next-move-is-lower-its-not-just-russia-and-the-fed-51645232031?refsec=the-trader (or go to https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-markets-next-move-is-lower-its-not-just-russia-and-the-fed-51645232031?refsec=the-trader)
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp
https://nymag.com/news/features/college-education-2011-5/ (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/02-21-22_New%20York%20Magazine_The%20University%20Has%20No%20Clothes_8.pdf)
https://www.payscale.com/college-salary-report/majors-that-pay-you-back
https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesagencycouncil/2021/09/30/why-companies-should-remove-college-degree-requirements-from-job-listings/?sh=523723c15ee9
https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/collegepayoff2021/
https://www.glassdoor.com/blog/no-degree-required/
https://libquotes.com/l-frank-baum/quote/lbf7u6w

Last week, the January stock market decline was interrupted by a Friday afternoon rally.

“The S&P 500 rose 2.4 percent, its biggest one-day jump since June 2020, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite rose 3.1 percent. Friday’s gain snapped a three-day streak of losses and left the S&P 500 up 0.8 percent for the week, its first weekly gain this year,” reported Coral Murphy Marcos of The New York Times.

The change in direction may have reflected:

• Confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy. The U.S. economy grew 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021, despite the spread of the Omicron variant. Over the full year, the economy expanded by 5.7 percent. It was the strongest quarterly growth since 1972 and the strongest annual growth since 1984, reported the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
• Strong corporate profits. One-third of the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index have shared how well they did during the fourth quarter. So far, profits were up about 24 percent for the quarter and more than 45 percent for the full year, as measured by the blended earnings growth rate. Above-average earnings growth reflects easy comparisons to weaker earnings in 2020, as well as strong earnings growth in 2021, reported to John Butters of FactSet.
• A buy-the-dip impulse. After three consecutive weeks of declines, the S&P 500 is down about 7 percent for the year. Some investors may have identified buying opportunities created as the market repriced in anticipation of rising interest rates.

It’s difficult to know which direction markets will go next; however, an asset manager cited by Nicholas Jasinski of Barron’s characterized the January drop as:

“…a ‘garden variety technical correction,’ as opposed to a more pernicious cyclical downturn or systemic problem facing the market. Stocks aren’t falling because analysts are lowering profit forecasts en masse, or because economists are predicting a recession on the horizon. Instead, the correction has taken place because of how richly the market is valued.”

Major U.S. stock indices were flat or up for the week, according to Al Root of Barron’s. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose during the week before subsiding

What do you know about the space economy? Space exploration is making a comeback.

Bill Nye, the Science Guy, and Ms. Frizzle of Magic School Bus fame both have series featuring outer space. Venture capital firms have begun to spend more than ever before on space companies. They invested $17.1 billion in 2021, up from $9.1 billion in 2020, reported Space Investment Quarterly. And the Bureau of Economic Analysis has begun developing statistics to measure the contributions of space-related industries to the U.S. economy.

See what you know about the space economy by taking this brief quiz.

1. At the end of 2021, how many active satellites were in orbit around the Earth?
   1. 100 to 500
   2. 500 to 5,000
   3. 5,000 to 10,000
   4. More than 10,000

2. In 2019, a European spacecraft had to perform an evasive maneuver to avoid a collision with to a private company’s satellite. As the space economy grows and space gets more crowded, the world may need:
   1. Space traffic awareness
   2. A regulatory framework defining space rights of way
   3. Cooperation between multiple nations
   4. All of the above

3. Which country has an ambitious five-year plan for spaceflight and exploration?
   1. United States
   2. Russia
   3. China
   4. Sweden

4. Several companies are using satellite technology to search for solutions to climate issues. These companies are:
   1. Monitoring global emissions
   2. Improving agricultural crop growth
   3. Identifying targets for conservation and reforestation investment
   4. All of the above

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“The Earth is the cradle of humanity, but mankind cannot stay in the cradle forever.”
—Konstantin Tsiolkovsky,scientist

Answers: 1) c; 2) d; 3) c; 4) d

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/28/business/stock-market-today.html (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/01-31-2022_New%20York%20Times_Stocks%20Rally%2c%20Erasing%20Losses%20from%20a%20Turbulent%20Week_1.pdf)
https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2021-advance-estimate
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-01/hist4q21_adv.pdf
https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-january-28-2022
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-volatility-investing-opportunities-51643420533?mod=hp_HERO (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/01-31-2022_Barrons_Stocks%20Have%20Had%20their%20Worst%20January%20Since%202008_5.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-dow-nasdaq-sp-500-earnings-season-51643419644?refsec=the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/01-31-2022_Barrons_This%20is%20What%20an%20Earnings%20Slowdown%20Looks%20Like_6.pdf)  https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield
https://www.romper.com/entertainment/best-shows-about-space-for-kids
https://www.spacecapital.com/quarterly
https://www.bea.gov/data/special-topics/space-economy
https://www.brainyquote.com/authors/konstantin-tsiolkovsky-quotes
https://www.livescience.com/how-many-satellites-orbit-earth
https://spacenews.com/from-space-traffic-awareness-to-space-traffic-management/
https://www.space.com/china-five-year-plan-space-exploration-2022
https://www.spacecapital.com/publications/climate-opportunity

When is a barometer not a barometer?

It’s widely recognized that people do not make perfect financial decisions. In fact, many investors rely on mental shortcuts when asked to make complex decisions. That may be why there are theories that correlate stock market performance to football, hemlines and sales of headache remedies.

For example, last week several articles about the U.S. stock market used the adage, “As goes January, so goes the year.” The saying describes the January Barometer, which holds that the performance of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in January has predictive value. If stocks gain in January, then the Index may gain over the full year. If stocks decline in January, then the Index may suffer losses over the full year.

According to Jeffrey Hirsch and Christopher Mistal of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the January Barometer has been 84.5 percent accurate since 1950. Of course, the January Barometer was invented in 1972, and when you evaluate its performance since then:

“The January Barometer, in fact, fails real-time tests at the 95 percent confidence level that statisticians often use when determining whether a pattern is genuine. Since 1972 its track record is indistinguishable from a random pattern,” wrote Mark Hulbert in MarketWatch.

You don’t have to look far to find flaws in the pattern.

In 2021, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index fell during the month of January and gained 26.8 percent over the full year. The same thing happened in 2020. The S&P 500 declined in January and finished the year with a gain of more than 16 percent. Perhaps this phenomenon will one day be known as the “Pandemic Exception.”

The real takeaway from the past two years isn’t that the January Barometer is flawed, it’s that the U.S. economy, companies and financial markets have proven to be quite resilient.

Last week, major U.S. stock indices moved lower on uncertainty about inflation, the pandemic and Federal Reserve policy, reported Mark DeCambre of MarketWatch. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 4.6 percent. The S&P 500 was down 5.7 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 7.6 percent, reported Ben Levisohn of Barron’s.

WHICH country is the most innovative? The silver lining of the pandemic may be found in innovation, which has flourished as companies, economies and countries have adapted to difficult circumstances. 

 The Global Innovation Index (GII) tracks 80 indicators that inform innovation. The indicators are grouped into seven categories:

• Institutions: Political, regulatory and business environments.
• Human capital and research: Education and research and development.
• Infrastructure: Information and communication technologies, general infrastructure and ecological sustainability.
• Market sophistication: Credit, investment, trade, diversification and market scale.
• Business sophistication: Knowledge workers, innovation linkages and knowledge absorption.
• Knowledge and technology outputs: Knowledge creation, impact and diffusion.
• Creative outputs: Intangible assets, creative goods and services, and online creativity.

In 2021, the top-three innovative countries by income group were:

High-income countries

No. 1. Switzerland, with strength in knowledge and technology outputs, infrastructure and creative outputs.

No. 2. Sweden, with strength in business sophistication, human capital and research, and knowledge and technology outputs.

No. 3. United States, with strength in knowledge and technology outputs and market and business sophistication

Upper-middle income countries

No. 1. China, with strength in knowledge and technology outputs and business sophistication.

No. 2. Bulgaria, with strength in knowledge and technology and creative outputs.

No. 3. Malaysia, with strength in knowledge and technology outputs and market sophistication.

Lower-middle income countries

No. 1. Vietnam, with strength in market sophistication and creative outputs.

No. 2. India, with strength in knowledge and technology outputs and market sophistication.

No. 3. Ukraine, with strength in knowledge and technology outputs and human capital and research.

Low-income countries

No. 1. Rwanda, with strength in institutions and business sophistication.

No. 2. Tajikistan, with strength in knowledge and technology outputs and market sophistication.

No. 3. Malawi, with strength in knowledge and technology outputs and market sophistication.

Switzerland, Sweden, the United States, the United Kingdom and South Korea were the most innovative countries in the world, overall. China was the only middle-income economy among the top 30 most innovative economies in the world.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“If you have urgent current expenses to cover, then future priorities like college and retirement fall off your radar because they are simply less pressing. Scarcity of attention prevents us from seeing what’s really important. The psychology of scarcity engrosses us in only our present needs.”
—Sendhil Mullainathan, University of Chicago professor and author

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/behavioraleconomics.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/08/market-anomaly-efficient-market.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/j/januarybarometer.asp
https://stocktradersalmanac.com/Alert/20210129.aspx
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-you-believe-january-can-predict-2022-stock-market-returns-youll-love-these-3-other-months-11642154814
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC  (Historical pricing)
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/30/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-market-crashing-no-heres-whats-happening-to-stocks-bonds-as-the-fed-aims-to-end-the-days-of-easy-money-analysts-say-11642892638
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-dow-nasdaq-sp-500-51642809808 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/01-24-22_Barrons_The%20Stock%20Market%20Just%20Suffered%20Its%20Worst%20Week%20Since%202020_9.pdf)
https://www.wipo.int/edocs/pubdocs/en/wipo_pub_gii_2021.pdf (pp. 2, 60, 67, 93, 113, 154-6, 163, 167, and 170)
https://www.brainyquote.com/authors/sendhil-mullainathan-quotes

Is the economy doing well, or not?

If you skimmed the headlines last week, you may have seen that retail sales – the purchases we make from stores in-person or online – declined 1.9 percent in December. The statistic may have raised questions about the strength of the economy. After all, how could retail sales move lower during the holiday season?

Media headlines speculated that the spread of the Omicron variant, rising inflation, and consumer grumpiness were to blame. Economists had other ideas, according to Logan Moore and Megan Cassella of Barron’s. “Consumers had long been expected to pull forward their holiday shopping to get ahead of any supply chain backlogs, economists say.”

As you think back on when you did your holiday shopping, there is another important question to ask: What time frame does the 1.9 percent capture?

The retail sales report showed that sales were:

·         Down 1.9 percent month-to-month (comparing November 2021 to December 2021)

·         Up 16.9 percent year-to-year (comparing the month December 2020 to the month of December 2021)

·         Up 19.3 percent for the year (comparing 2020 retail sales to 2021 retail sales)

So, back to the original question: is the economy doing well, or not?

If you are judging based on retail sales – or any other piece of economic data – your conclusion is likely to depend on the time frame the data reflect.

For instance, if retail sales are down 1.9 percent from November to December, it tells a different story than if retail sales are up 19.3 percent for the year. The story may also be affected by the fact that 2021’s retail sales gain built on 2020’s gain. Retail sales rose 3.1 percent from 2019 to 2020, despite the pandemic.

Of course, the story of the dip in month-to-month numbers could be that we are at an inflection point. Barron’s reported, “While the December report showed an unexpected drop in retail sales from the catapult in spending November data showed, the slowdown is expected to be short-lived. Put more simply: ‘Don’t panic’…”

Last week, major U.S. stock indices moved lower, reported Ben Levisohn of Barron’s.

It’s a beauty revolution! Many caretakers have experienced that jolting realization: It’s too quiet! Where are the children? Then, a discovery that leaves them uncertain whether to yell, laugh, or cry. The kids have hijacked a makeup bag and given themselves – and the room – a new look. Sparkling shadow on cheekbones. Lip paint on toenails and eyebrows. Brown, red, blue, and green streaks on every surface. Palettes of cosmetics ruined.

A new trend in beauty may change this childhood rite of passage: virtual makeup.

The coronavirus has made cosmetic counters far less enticing than they once were, a change in circumstance that led beauty companies to develop new strategies for delivering personalized beauty experiences, reports Jennifer Kingson of Axios.

Beauty companies are teaming up with technology firms that specialize in artificial intelligence (AI) and augmented reality (AR) to develop apps that let people try on makeup virtually, according to Daniela Morosini of Vogue Business.

“In recent years, activity in the beauty [mergers and acquisitions] sector was often focused on larger cosmetic conglomerates buying up indie beauty brands. Now, the pendulum is swinging towards Silicon Valley – a tech ‘arms race’ is underway.”

The trend isn’t limited to makeup. One fragrance and cosmetics firm acquired a company with technology that interprets fragrances through images and patterns of colors.⁷

“Customers love playing with these apps so much that companies see big revenue boosts after introducing them,” reported Axios.

The new technology may change the way people shop for makeup, fragrance, and other beauty products. It also may put an end to childhood makeup-bag raids. Children will be able to experiment all they want, sitting in front of a screen.

Then again, maybe not.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“The most beautiful people we have known are those who have known defeat, known suffering, known struggle, known loss, and have found their way out of the depths. These persons have an appreciation, a sensitivity, and an understanding of life that fills them with compassion, gentleness, and a deep loving concern. Beautiful people do not just happen.”
—Elisabeth Kübler-Ross, psychiatrist

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf
www.google.com, Search term: Retail sales report (see pdf at https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/01172022_Retail%20Sales%20Report%20Screenshot_2.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-retail-sales-december-51642118411?mod=hp_LEAD_3&mod=article_inline (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/01172022_Barrons_Retail%20Sales%20Fell%20in%20December_3.pdf)
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/annual-retail-trade-survey.html

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-earnings-season-federal-reserve-51642208912?refsec=the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/01172022_Barrons_The%20Stock%20Markets%20Biggest%20Risk%20Isnt%20the%20Fed.%20Its%20Earnings_5.pdf)
https://www.axios.com/the-beauty-business-turns-to-augmented-reality-22256e51-1158-4db9-8d8e-5fc26b550191.html
https://www.voguebusiness.com/beauty/inside-the-beauty-industrys-newest-power-play-tech-acquisitions
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/beauty

​Here’s a little story about a group called the Fed…

In the 1950’s, then Fed Chair William McChesney Martin described the Federal Reserve as “the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up.”

In 2020, the opposite was true. The Fed, along with fiscal policymakers, filled the stimulus punch bowl to the brim to keep the country from falling into a recession or depression. In November 2021, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida explained:

“The COVID-19 pandemic and the mitigation efforts put in place to contain it delivered the most severe blow to the U.S. and global economies since the Great Depression. Gross domestic product (GDP) collapsed at a nearly 33 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2020. More than 22 million jobs were lost in just the first two months of the crisis, and the unemployment rate rose from a 50-year low of 3.5 percent in February to a postwar peak of almost 15 percent in April 2020…The fiscal and monetary policy response in the United States to the COVID crisis was unprecedented in its scale, scope, and speed.”

That stimulus helped the economy recover quickly. As a result, demand for goods rose and exceeded supply, pushing prices higher. The Fed did not act immediately to tame inflation because its members believed price increases would subside as supply chain issues eased. Then, in November, inflation was 6.8 percent year-over-year, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. The cost of shelter, which typically is not transitory, was up more than 3 percent year-over-year.

In December, the Fed adjusted its outlook on inflation, removing the word “transitory,” and accelerated the pace at which it would reduce monetary stimulus (i.e., remove the punchbowl). Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained, “…in light of the strengthening labor market and elevated inflation pressures, we decided to speed up the reductions in our asset purchases. As I will explain, economic developments and changes in the outlook warrant this evolution of monetary policy, which will continue to provide appropriate support for the economy.”

Major United States stock indices dropped lower after Powell’s remarks before climbing to new highs in December.

Last Wednesday, the minutes of the Fed’s December meeting were released. Investors appeared to be surprised by the changes in the Fed’s change in tone, reported Ben Levisohn of Barron’s. Share prices tumbled again and the yield on 10-year Treasury notes moved higher.

It all depends on who you ask…Last week’s unemployment report illustrated, once again, a remarkable divergence in the messages delivered by the data. Here is what we learned:

·         The U.S. added 199,000 jobs. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the number of jobs added to the U.S. economy each month, its data come from an employer survey.

Last week’s report showed that 199,000 jobs were created in December. That was a lot lower than expected. Dow Jones estimated 422,000 new jobs would be created, according to Jeff Cox of CNBC. The low employment number suggests U.S. economic growth may be slowing, reported Colby Smith, Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson and Christine Zhang of Financial Times.

Of course, the number of jobs created in December may be revised higher over the next two months. Last year, “…revisions from the first estimate to the third and final release…added nearly 1 million jobs to the initial releases – 976,000 to be exact, through October,” reported CNBC. That was the highest upward adjustment ever in a single year, according to Financial Times.

·         The unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent. When the BLS calculates the unemployment rate, its data come from a household survey.

 In December, that survey showed the unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent overall. Unemployment rates varied by race: 3.2 percent for white people, 7.1 percent for Black people, 3.8 percent for Asian people, and 4.9 percent for Hispanic people. The low overall unemployment rate suggests the economy is experiencing strong growth.

 Rising wages and record numbers of job openings also indicate economic strength. Average hourly earnings for U.S. workers rose 4.7 percent in 2021, and there were 10.6 million job openings in November, according to last week’s BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover report. The report indicated that 6.7 million people were hired and 6.3 million left their employers.

Why is the unemployment data wonky? An expert cited by Financial Times reported, “The economic fundamentals have been shifting at unprecedented speed. Not in my lifetime and not in the lifetime of most people alive today have we seen…an economic recovery that has been as rapid as it has been since the spring of 2020…The challenges of economic measurement in a pandemic environment are enormous.”

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.”
—Mark Twain, writer

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/statements-speeches-william-mcchesney-martin-jr-448/address-new-york-group-investment-bankers-association-america-7800
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/clarida20211130a.htm
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/29/fed-chair-powell-calls-inflation-frustrating-and-sees-it-running-into-next-year.html
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20211215.pdf
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/indexes-mixed-wall-street-heads-weekly-loss-2021-12-17/
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/30/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-tech-stocks-federal-reserve-51641603791?refsec=the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/01-10-22_Barrons_The%20Feds%20Hawkish%20Turn%20Clobbered%20Your%20Favorite%20Stocks_9.pdf)
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
https://www.bls.gov/bls/empsitquickguide.htm
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/07/hiring-falters-in-december-as-payrolls-rise-only-199000.html
https://www.ft.com/content/73c26e1b-ebf6-4dd4-9930-132c01db6929 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/01-10-22_Financial%20Times_Hottest%20Its%20Ever%20Been_14.pdf)
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/03/nearly-1-million-more-jobs-were-created-this-year-than-the-government-first-estimated.html
https://www.ft.com/content/4f1155be-1a5f-4fd2-ba57-b15bdb273c00 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/01-10-22_Financial%20Times_US%20Struggles%20to%20Measure%20Jobs%20Growth%20as%20Pandemic%20Distorts%20Labour%20Market%20Data_16.pdf)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/statistics