Like a gender reveal gone wrong, last week’s employment report delivered an unexpected surprise.

Economists estimated 975,000 new jobs would be created in April. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported there were just 266,000. That’s a big miss.

Economists, analysts, and the media offered a wealth of theories to explain the shortfall. These included:

·         Pandemic fear. A March U.S. Census survey found 4.2 million people aren’t working because they fear getting or spreading the coronavirus, reported Gwynn Guilford of The Wall Street Journal. That’s more than half of the 8.2 million non-farm jobs that need to be recovered to reach pre-pandemic employment levels.

·         Too-generous unemployment benefits. Another theory is federal unemployment benefits ($300 a week) have created a labor shortage. The theory is being tested. Last week, Montana announced it will no longer participate in federal unemployment programs. Instead, it will offer a $1,200 return-to-work bonus, reported Greg Iacurci of CNBC.

 ·         Low pay. Some say Americans are less willing to work for low pay than they were before the pandemic. Christopher Rugaber of the AP interviewed a Texas staffing office manager who reported job seekers are turning down jobs that pay less than unemployment benefits. 

A former retail worker told Heather Long of The Washington Post, “The problem is we are not making enough money to make it worth it to go back to these jobs that are difficult and dirty and usually thankless. You’re getting yelled at and disrespected all day.”

·         Lack of childcare. Many women who want to work left jobs during the pandemic to care for children. The April employment report showed a slight decrease in the rate of unemployment for adult women; however, it resulted from women giving up on job searches rather than finding work. The Institute for Women’s Policy Research reported, “…more women continued to exit rather than enter the workforce: 165,000 fewer women had jobs or were actively looking for work in April than in March.”

·         Quirky data. Statistical distortions or seasonal factors could be responsible. “The more time the market has to digest [the] report, the more the report seems a bit of an anomaly relative to other data,” said a deputy chief investment officer cited by Mamta Badkar and Naomi Rovnick of Financial Times.

 Other data include the ADP^® National Employment Report^™ which showed 742,000 new jobs in April. The report reflects real-time data on one-fifth of U.S. private payroll employment. 

·         Rethinking work. “There is also growing evidence – both anecdotal and in surveys – that a lot of people want to do something different with their lives than they did before the pandemic. The coronavirus outbreak has had a dramatic psychological effect on workers, and people are reassessing what they want to do and how they want to work, whether in an office, at home, or some hybrid combination,” reported The Washington Post.

U.S. financial markets shrugged off the news. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index finished the week at a record high, and 10-year Treasury rates finished Friday where they started.

Check out the big brain on Brett! There is a long-standing scientific theory about the size of a mammal’s body relative to its brain offers an indication of intelligence. The findings of a recent study seem to debunk that idea, reported Science Daily.

 An international team of scientists investigated how the brain and body sizes of 1,400 living and extinct mammals evolved over time. They made several discoveries. One was significant changes in brain size happened after two cataclysmic events in Earth’s history: a mass extinction and a climatic transition.

Not every mammal changed in the same ways. Elephants increased body and brain size. Dolphins and humans decreased body size and increased brain size. California sea lions increased body size without comparable increases in brain size. All have high intelligence.

“We’ve overturned a long-standing dogma that relative brain size can be equivocated with intelligence…Sometimes, relatively big brains can be the end result of a gradual decrease in body size to suit a new habitat or way of moving – in other words, nothing to do with intelligence at all. Using relative brain size as a proxy for cognitive capacity must be set against an animal’s evolutionary history,” stated Kamran Safi, a research scientist at the Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior and one of the study’s authors.

Of course, intelligence doesn’t always translate into wise behavior.

Studies of behavioral finance have found the human brain is more interested in survival than saving. “It turns out that, when it comes to money matters, we are wired to do it all wrong. Our brains have evolved over thousands of years to focus on short-term survival in a dangerous world with limited resources. They were not designed for today’s optimal financial behaviors,” wrote financial psychologist Dr. Brad Klontz, a CNBC contributor.

No one knows how the COVID-19 pandemic will be remembered over time, but it appears to have influenced the way people think about money in some significant ways. An April 2021 Bank of America survey reported:

·         81 percent of participants saved money, that would normally be spent on entertainment, dining, and travel, and set it aside in emergency, savings, and other types of accounts.

·         46 percent used pandemic downtime to put their finances in order.

·         44 percent said their risk tolerance changed: 23 percent became more aggressive and 21 percent more cautious.

If the pandemic has changed your thinking, let’s review your financial plan and align it with your current circumstances and thinking.

Weekly Focus – Think About It 
“It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.”
–Richard P. Feynman, Theoretical physicist

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-other-reason-the-labor-force-is-shrunken-fear-of-covid-19-11618163017 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/05-10-21_WSJ-The_Other_Reason_the_Labor_Force_is_Shrunken-Fear_of_COVID-19-Footnote_2.pdf)
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/montana-opts-to-end-300-unemployment-boost-other-states-may-too.html
https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-coronavirus-pandemic-health-business-82aa4f9fddcea22918d010c55b5e55b3
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/05/07/jobs-report-labor-shortage-analysis/ (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/05-10-21_TheWashingPost-Its_Not_a_Labor_Shortage-Its_a_Great_Reassessment_of_Work_in_America-Footnote_5.pdf)
https://iwpr.org/media/press-releases/mothers-day-surprise-women-lose-jobs-and-continue-to-leave-the-labor-force-while-unemployment-among-black-and-latina-women-remains-high/
https://www.ft.com/content/9ef97745-c4d7-4273-b1f1-07d5d55efbc8 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/05-10-21_FinancialTimes-S_and_P_500_Ends_at_Record_Despite_Disappointing_Jobs_Report-Footnote_7.pdf)
https://adpemploymentreport.com/2021/April/NER/NER-April-2021.aspx
https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-the-stock-market-rose-this-past-week-what-to-know-51620430506?mod=hp_LEAD_3 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/05-10-21_Barrons-The_Dow_Surged_to_a_Record_High_Because_the_Bad_News_Wasnt_So_Bad-Footnote_9.pdf)
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/04/210429090227.htm
https://www.mpg.de/16785076/disaster-brain-size?c=2249
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/09/when-it-comes-to-money-our-brains-are-wired-to-do-it-all-wrong.html
https://newsroom.bankofamerica.com/content/newsroom/press-releases/2021/04/bank-of-america-study-finds-nearly-half-of-affluent-americans-ge.html
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/richard_p_feynman_160383

It’s Spring and economic recovery is in the air.

Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the U.S. economy grew at a 6.4 percent annualized rate for the first three months of 2021. While that’s good news for companies and workers, asset managers are checking their expectations.

The stock market reflects what investors think may happen in the future. During the past year, major U.S. stock indices moved higher as investors anticipated vaccines and economic recovery, reported Patti Domm of CNBC. Since its March 2020 low, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has gained 88 percent.

Amidst strong signs of recovery in the United States, some asset managers are positioning for “inflation and tapering,” according to a source cited by Naomi Rovnick of Financial Times. “Investors have topped up their cash holdings at the fastest rate since March 2020 as debate intensifies over whether stock markets will continue rallying now the U.S. economic recovery from the pandemic is firmly under way.”

Investors were feeling cautious last week, but there were no signs of tapering, which occurs when the Federal Reserve begins to buy fewer bonds. On Wednesday, the Fed left its supportive policies in place.

When the Fed begins to change course and rates move higher, equity market valuations may adjust. “The main worry for stocks is that higher bond yields translate into lower equity valuations. Higher yields reduce the current value of future profits and therefore can reduce earnings multiples,” reported Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s.

Profits were strong during the first quarter of 2021. U.S. companies continued to report exceptional earnings last week. With 60 percent of firms in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index reporting, the blended earnings growth rate was 45.8 percent. More than 8 of 10 companies have reported better than expected earnings, reported John Butters of FactSet.

Major U.S. stock indices finished the week flat to down. Rates on 10-year Treasuries edged higher.

Estimates suggest there will be 25 million by 2100. Take a guess: electric vehicles, household robots, wild elephants, centenarians, or streaming services per household?

 ·         Electric vehicles. There may be far more than 25 million – estimates suggest 145 million – on the road by 2030.

·         Household robots. Domestic robots that offer companionship or help with tasks like lawn mowing, vacuuming, and mopping are becoming popular. Estimates suggest about 55 million domestic bots will be sold next year.

·         Wild elephants. From 1989 to 2018, the number of elephants in the wild doubled to 34,000, reported Earth.org.

·         Streaming services per household. Currently, the average number of streaming services per household is four. There’s room for growth, but probably not that much.

·         Centenarians. The world is in the midst of a longevity revolution and, by 2100, there may be as many as 25 million centenarians – people age 100 or older – around the globe, according to a source cited by Science Direct.

The world’s 65 and older population is growing rapidly.

According to the most recent population estimates from the United Nations, “…1 in 6 people in the world will be over the age 65 by 2050, up from 1 in 11 in 2019. The latest projections also show the number of people aged 80 or over will triple in the next 30 years. In many regions, the population aged 65 will double by 2050, while global life expectancy beyond 65 will increase by 19 years.”

Longevity deserves more thought than it often receives. It is an essential part of every financial and retirement plan, influencing savings goals, investment choices, and retirement income levels. Yet, people often underestimate their potential longevity.

In the United States, the average life expectancy at age 65 is 19 years, according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). Consequently, many people assume they should plan to live to age 84. However, the CDC estimate is an average. Half of 65-year-olds will live beyond age 84.

When it comes to planning for the future, having above average expectations for longevity may be a good idea.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“I am not more gifted than the average human being. If you know anything about history, you would know that is so – what hard times I had in studying and the fact that I do not have a memory like some other people do…I am just more curious than the average person and I will not give up on a problem until I have found the proper solution. This is one of my greatest satisfactions in life – solving problems – and the harder they are, the more satisfaction do I get out of them. Maybe you could consider me a bit more patient in continuing with my problem than is the average human being. Now, if you understand what I have just told you, you see that it is not a matter of being more gifted but a matter of being more curious and maybe more patient until you solve a problem.”
–Albert Einstein, Theoretical physicist

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-04/gdp1q21_adv.pdf
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/30/how-the-pandemic-drove-massive-stock-market-gains-and-what-happens-next.html
https://www.ft.com/content/dc17fddb-3e09-419d-aabe-90ee89511bc5 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/05-03-21_FinancialTimes-Investors_Move_into_Cash_at_Fastest_Rate_Since_March_Last_Year-Footnote_3.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-stock-market-ignored-the-fed-meeting-why-that-could-be-a-mistake-51619715102 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/05-03-21_Barrons-The_Stock_Market_Ignored_the_Fed_Meeting-Why_that_Could_be_a_Mistake_Footnote_4.pdf)
https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-april-30-2021
https://www.barrons.com/market-data (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/05-03-21_Barrons-Market_Data-Footnote_6.pdf)
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/global-electric-vehicle-numbers-set-to-hit-145-million-by-2030-iea-.html
https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/household-robots-market
https://earth.org/kenya-is-seeing-a-boom-in-elephants/
https://discover.jdpa.com/hubfs/Files/Industry%20Campaigns/TMT/New%20Streaming%20Services%20Cut%20into%20Netflixs%20Market%20Share%20While%20The%20Mandalor.._.pdf
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0047637416302548?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top
https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/our-world-is-growing-older.html
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/VSRR10-508.pdf
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/average

It wasn’t just the price of pork chops.

Last week, as investors weighed the news, strong corporate earnings were offset by higher grocery prices and rising numbers of global coronavirus cases.

Solid corporate earnings weighed favorably.
So far, 25 percent of the companies in the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index have reported first quarter earnings, and 84 percent said profits grew faster than expected, reported John Butters of FactSet. The blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 (which includes estimated earnings for companies that have not yet reported and actual earnings for companies that have) was 33.8 percent last week. For context, the 5-year average earnings growth rate (actual earnings) for the S&P 500 was 6.9 percent as of last week.

It’s important to remember the impact of earnings is often muted as earnings expectations – good or bad – tend to be priced into the market long before they are reported.

Inflation expectations weighed unfavorably.
Investors were concerned about inflation – and so were consumers. While the Federal Reserve and many economists believe we’ll see a fleeting uptick in inflation, others think the increase will persist. “…A consistent drumbeat of price hikes from major companies, consumer reports, and market data suggest the world may not be going along with their conclusion,” reported Dion Rabouin of Axios.

It is likely markets may pay particularly close attention to Federal Reserve statements about inflation and interest rates this week.

Rising numbers of Covid-19 cases around the world tipped the scales.
Concerns about India’s coronavirus surge, Japan’s state of emergency, and rising numbers of cases around the world caused investors to reassess expectations and some sold shares of companies that were expected to benefit from the re-opening of world economies. Yun Li and Maggie Fitzgerald of CNBC reported:

“The sell-off in shares that are tied to a successful reopening came as the World Health Organization warned that global coronavirus infections were edging toward their highest level in the pandemic. In the United States, while the country is maintaining a pace of 3 million reported vaccinations per day, about 67,100 daily new infections are still being recorded.”

Despite uncertainties, most (67 percent) professional investors who participated in Barron’s Big Money Poll said they were bullish on the outlook for stocks in the next 12 months. Just 7 percent were bearish.

Major U.S. stock indices finished the week flat or slightly lower. U.S. Treasuries rallied briefly before finishing the week flat.

A capital gains tax hike has been proposed.
Another factor that influenced last week’s stock market decline was the proposed capital gains tax hike. Investors’ response was a bit surprising since the tax increase wasn’t really news. Ben Levisohn of Barron’s reported:

“President Joe Biden made no secret of his plan to raise capital-gains taxes on the very wealthy. It was a campaign pledge, one that got enough attention for Goldman Sachs to release a note looking at the historical impact of previous increases on the stock market. (The answer: not very much.)”

According to Steve Goldstein of MarketWatch, the Goldman note reported the wealthiest U.S. households sold 1 percent of their equity assets prior to the 2013 capital gains tax increase. As a result, the S&P 500 Index experienced a short-lived loss six months prior to the tax hike and, six months after the tax hike, the Index was back in positive territory.

While the long-term impact on stock markets may be relatively small, the effect on high income investors could be significant.

The administration proposal, as written, would nearly double the capital gains tax rate for people with adjustable gross income of $1 million or more. (That’s about 0.3 percent of American taxpayers.) The current top long-term capital gains tax rate would increase from 20 percent to 39.6 percent, reported Laura Davison and Allyson Versprille of Bloomberg.

The capital gains tax increase is a proposed change. It has not been finalized, and there are indications the final tax may be lower if the bill is passed.

If you’re concerned about the potential tax increase and would like to learn more, please get in touch.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Share prices fluctuate more than share values.”
–Sir John Templeton, Investor, banker, and asset manager

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-feds-inflation-blind-spot-already-surging-grocery-and-housing-prices-51619209825 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-26-21_Barrons-The_Feds_Inflation_Blind_Spot-Already-Surging_Grocery_and_Housing_Prices-Footnote_1.pdf)
https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-april-23-2021
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
https://www.axios.com/inflation-federal-reserve-price-hikes-63588a9a-92cd-4764-8cd0-28778cf57c57.html
https://www.barrons.com/articles/india-and-japan-are-seeing-covid-surges-why-that-wont-derail-the-global-recovery-51619208829 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-26-21_Barrons-India_and_Japan_are_Seeing_COVID_Surges-Why_That_Wont_Derail_the_Global_Recovery-Footnote_5.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-have-more-room-to-rise-says-barrons-big-money-poll-51619222301?mod=hp_HERO (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-26-21_Barrons-This_Bull_Market_is_Far_from_Over_Pros_Say-Where_Theyre_Investing_Now-Footnote_6.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-did-the-dow-drop-this-week-it-got-spooked-by-old-news-51619221366?mod=hp_LEAD_2_B_1 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-26-21_Barrons-The_Stock_Market_got_Spooked_by_What_It_Already_Knew-Heres_Next_Weeks_Surprise-Footnote_7.pdf)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-178-billion-of-selling-ahead-of-the-capital-gains-tax-hike-these-are-the-stocks-most-at-risk-11619174251
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-23/biden-aims-at-top-0-3-with-bid-to-tax-capital-gains-like-wages (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-26-21_Bloomberg-Biden_Aims_at_Top_0.3_Percent_with_Bid_to_Tax_Capital_Like_Wages-Footnote_9.pdf)
https://www.azquotes.com/author/14517-John_Templeton

Where are Treasury bonds going?

The direction of bond yields is influenced by investors’ expectations for economic growth, among other factors. When economic growth is expected to weaken, bond yields tend to move lower. When economic growth is expected to strengthen, bond yields tend to move higher.

Last year, U.S. Treasury yields began to climb higher on optimism that vaccines, in tandem with fiscal and monetary stimulus, would strengthen economic growth. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose more than 1 percent in just a few months, from 0.54 percent at the end of July 2020 to 1.75 percent at the end of March 2021.

Last week, Treasury yields moved lower. Ben Levisohn of Barron’s explained it’s “…possible that after yields nearly doubled to start the year, investors were simply waiting to see that the move higher was over before buying again. Of course, nearly everyone was predicting a 2 percent yield on the 10-year, while often forgetting that rarely does anything in financial markets move in a straight line.”

There are reasons for investors to be optimistic about what may be ahead and there may be reasons for concern:

·         Corporate earnings are positive, so far. Corporate earnings are encouraging. Almost 10 percent of Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies have reported first quarter earnings. Earnings show how profitable a company was during a given period of time. So far, 81 percent of the companies have reported higher than expected earnings per share, reported John Butters of FactSet.

·         Vaccine rollouts offer mixed messages. As of last weekend, about 50 percent of Americans 18 and older had received at least one dose of the vaccine and about 32 percent were fully vaccinated, reported the Centers for Disease Control.

There is trepidation about the effectiveness of mass vaccinations and the pace at which people in other regions of the world are being vaccinated, reported Chris Wilson of Time. In the United States, the pause in distribution of single shot vaccines caused some investors to be concerned, reported Hope King of Axios.

 ·         Economic data was compelling. U.S. economic data released last week showed declines in weekly unemployment claims and strong retail sales numbers. The news strengthened expectations that economic recovery remained on track, reported Simon Jessop and Hideyuki Sano of Reuters.

Other issues that may be weighing on investors include uncertainty about infrastructure spending and sanctions on Russia.

No one is ever certain what the future will bring. It’s one reason for having a well-diversified portfolio.

What’s on the benefits menu? The impact of COVID-19 on workplaces has been profound. As we move toward a new normal, it is likely work as we once knew it will be changed forever. Employer benefits is one area in which there may be significant change.

Remote work options may be necessary for employers to remain competitive, according to the Pulse of the American Worker Survey:

“…a “war for talent” may be looming if companies don’t address workers’ needs…[the] war will be won by companies who affirm their standing as a top destination for both current and future talent. These employers will cultivate cultures that reflect what is most important to workers, such as remote-work options and flexible work arrangements, opportunities for career development and mobility, and comprehensive benefits that foster employee health and well-being and build financial resiliency.”

Financial wellness has become a top concern for Americans – at work and at home. Two-thirds of survey participants said they spent more time thinking about their finances in 2020 than they have in prior years, and they identified key barriers to financial security which included:

72%     Lack of retirement savings
65%     Lack of emergency savings
65%     Not enough invested to grow
64%     Too many bills
58%     Not enough financial “know-how
55%     Too much debt

Some employers are considering new benefits that help address these issues, including emergency savings programs and other financial wellness options.

If you have concerns about any of these issues, please get in touch.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Every day I get up and look through the Forbes list of the richest people in America. If I’m not there, I go to work.”
–Robert Orben, Comedian

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/061715/how-can-bond-yield-influence-stock-market.asp
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/11/treasury-yields-rise-as-stimulus-hopes-us-china-tensions-persist.html
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10#0
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-ends-week-higher-as-strong-economy-trumps-tumbling-bond-yields-51618619077?refsec=the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-19-21_Barrons-The_Stock_Market_Climbed_Because_Tumbling_Bond_Yields_Dont_Mean_What_They_Used_To-Footnote-4.pdf)
https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-april-16-2021
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
https://time.com/5953007/covid-19-mass-vaccination/
https://www.axios.com/reopening-stocks-digest-johnson-johnson-vaccine-pause-8bca92af-f906-4319-8f25-34a476dbb202.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-4pix-2021-04-16/
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-bond-market-isnt-blinking-so-far-at-bidens-plan-to-spend-trillions-on-infrastructure-11617651906
https://news.prudential.com/increasingly-workers-expect-pandemic-workplace-adaptations-to-stick.htm
https://news.prudential.com/presskits/pulse-american-worker-survey-road-to-resiliency.htm (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-19-21_PrudentialNews-Pulse_of_the_Amerian_Worker_Survey-Footnote_12.pdf)
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/robert_orben_103699

Investors didn’t stumble over inflation last week. Why not?

Inflation – rising prices of goods and services – can be measured in a variety of ways. For example, the Consumer Price Index considers changes in the amount consumers pay for goods and services – a bag of carrots, a gallon of gas, or a doctor’s appointment. The Producer Price Index (PPI), on the other hand, considers changes in the amount producers – such as farmers, manufacturers, or physicians – charge for goods and services.

Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the PPI increased by 1 percent month-over-month in March 2021. It was twice the increase forecast by economists. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI was up 4.2 percent, which was the biggest gain since 2011, reported Reade Pickert of Bloomberg.

It’s important to pay attention to comparisons. The year-over-year PPI reflected prices from last March, after the pandemic had affected demand and prices dropped lower. Bloomberg explained the phenomenon may continue for several months:

“Given major inflation metrics declined at the start of the pandemic, year-over-year figures will quickly accelerate – a development referred to as the base effect. The upward distortion will also appear in the closely-watched consumer price index report on Tuesday.”

Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell talked about inflation, too. He didn’t focus on year-over-year comparisons. Powell told an International Monetary Fund panel inflation may increase as the U.S. economy reopens because supplies are tight. However, he expects the increase to be relatively short-lived. “Persistent inflation that goes up year after year…tends to be dictated by underlying inflation dynamics in the economy, as opposed to things like bottlenecks. The nature of a bottleneck is that it can be resolved.”

Powell emphasized price stability is one of the Fed’s mandates and, if inflation becomes concerning, the Fed will act. The Fed’s other mandate, full employment, is the more pressing concern. Powell said, “The unemployment rate of the bottom quartile of earners is still 20 percent. The higher end of the labor market has virtually recovered, but not the people in the bottom 20 percent…It amounts to nine or 10 million people…who were working in February of 2020 and are now unemployed.”

Last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index opened above 4,000 for the first time and finished the week higher, reported Alexandra Scaggs, Barbara Kollmeyer, and Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s.

April is financial literacy month. It’s also National Canine Fitness, National Fresh Celery, and International Guitar Month (among so many other designations), but let’s not get distracted.

So, what is financial literacy? In 2008, the President’s Advisory Council on Financial Literacy defined financial literacy as “the ability to use knowledge and skills to manage financial resources effectively for a lifetime of financial well-being.” A lot of skills fall into that category, including budgeting, saving, and investing.

One aspect of financial literacy that is becoming more important is the way memory and aging affect financial decision making. Prior to the pandemic, the FINRA Investor Education Foundation and the Rush Memory and Aging Project explored this issue from several perspectives and discovered:

·         Confidence in financial literacy appears to be good for brain health. One study found “…confidence in financial literacy is associated with a decreased risk of Alzheimer’s dementia and slower decline in cognition, above and beyond objectively measured financial literacy…While it is not completely clear why this relationship exists, it could be that confident people are motivated to engage with the world and actively seek to acquire new information.”

·         Overconfidence about financial knowledge may lead to risky financial behaviors. Older Americans are responsible for a significant portion of our country’s wealth. Common wisdom holds that risk tolerance declines with age. However, a separate study found this was not always the case. In particular, overconfident people – those who believed their financial knowledge was higher than it actually was – reported being more tolerant of risk. There was no evidence overconfidence made them more susceptible to scams or fraud.

 ·         Loneliness in tandem with low cognition can lead to poor decisions. A third study found loneliness, on its own, generally doesn’t appear to result in poorer decision making. However, loneliness in older people with low cognition may result in poor financial (and healthcare) decisions. The study accounted for differences in depressive symptoms, social network size, medical conditions, and income.

Financial decisions often become more complex as we get older. From retirement plans to estate plans, and from the cost of prescription drug benefits to the expense of chronic disease management, older Americans are asked to weigh outcomes and make financial (and healthcare) decisions. Being financial literate can help – and so can understanding the factors that may affect decision making as we age.

Weekly Focus – Think About It 

“It’s paradoxical that the idea of living a long life appeals to everyone, but the idea of getting old doesn’t appeal to anyone.”
 –Andy Rooney, American television writer

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm
https://www.bls.gov/ppi/ppifaq.htm#1
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-09/u-s-producer-prices-increased-by-more-than-forecast-in-march (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-12-21_Bloomberg-US_Producer_Prices_Increased_by_More_than_Forecast_in_March-Footnote_3.pdf)
https://www.c-span.org/video/?510608-1/federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell-discusses-global-economic-policy (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-12-21_C-Span-Federal_Reserve_Chair_Powell_on_Global_Economic_Policy-Footnote_4.pdf)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSPC
https://www.barrons.com/articles/global-stocks-mixed-as-bond-yields-creep-up-and-china-inflation-spikes-higher-51617962327 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-12-21_Barrons-Stocks_Close_at_New_Highs_as_Inflation_Readings_Top_Forecasts-Footnote_6.pdf)
https://nationaldaycalendar.com/april-monthly-observations/
https://www.treasury.gov/about/organizational-structure/offices/domestic-finance/documents/exec_sum.pdf
https://www.finrafoundation.org/sites/finrafoundation/files/confidence-in-financial-literacy-and-cognitive-health-in-older-persons_1.pdf
https://www.finrafoundation.org/sites/finrafoundation/files/does-overconfidence-increase-financial-risk-taking-in-older-age_0.pdf
https://www.finrafoundation.org/sites/finrafoundation/files/relation-loneliness-cognition-financial-decisions.pdf
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/aging

Zoom, zoom, zoom.

Big economies tend to recover from recessions about as quickly as semi-trucks accelerate from stop lights. In other words, recovery tends to be slow. That may not be the case this time.

“Everything in this economic cycle is happening at great speed. That is in part a reflection of the scale of economic stimulus, and not only from the [Federal Reserve]. One big fiscal package seems set to follow another. A $1.9trn package has barely passed and a $3trn infrastructure bill is mooted,” reported The Economist.

Economic recovery has helped push stock prices higher, and concerns about inflation have pushed bond yields higher. Here are a few highlights from the first quarter of 2021:

Vaccination nation
Vaccine debates pepper small talk. Social media posts feature tips about finding appointments, as well as inoculation selfies and photos of vaccine cards. So far, about 31 percent of Americans have received one dose of a vaccine and 18 percent are fully vaccinated, reported the Centers for Disease Control.

Confident consumers
Vaccine progress, in tandem with stimulus payments and easing business restrictions, helped lift consumer confidence. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index^® rose from 88.9 in January to 90.4 in February. The March number exceeded even the most optimistic economic forecasts, reported Payne Lubbers of Bloomberg, rising to 109.7.

Jobs, jobs, jobs
In March, the employment report exceeded expectations, too. The U.S. Labor Department reported 916,000 new jobs were created. That was higher than the 675,000 jobs forecast by a Dow Jones survey of economists, reported Jeff Cox of CNBC. Leisure and hospitality sectors, which were hard hit by the pandemic, were job gain leaders in February and March.

An improving rate of job creation was welcome news. By government measures, the unemployment rate was about 6 percent. However, in early March, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told PBS News Hour, “We still have an unemployment rate that, if we really measure it properly, taking account of all the four million people who’ve dropped out of the labor force, it’s really running at 10 percent.”

Bond yields rise
For more than a decade, professional money managers have been predicting the end of the 40-year bull market in bonds – and they have been wrong. Since 1981 when rates on 10-year Treasuries were almost 16 percent, Treasury rates have trended lower.

That changed during the first quarter. Alexandra Scaggs of Barron’s reported:

“The Treasury market just posted its worst quarterly performance in more than 40 years, with investors betting on a strong U.S. economic recovery from COVID-19…In theory, the selloff in Treasuries should have left markets that trade at a yield premium to Treasuries, such as corporate debt, in a better position…Yet higher-rated and safer corporate bonds posted losses for the quarter as well, because of their high levels of duration or sensitivity to Treasury yields.”

Stock market boom
During the first quarter, sectors that were unloved in 2020 gained favor. In the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index, Energy, Financials, and Industrials delivered double-digit gains, reported Carleton English of Barron’s. Major U.S. stock indices finished the quarter higher.

The stock boom also included tremendous enthusiasm for so-called meme stocks (inexpensive stocks with relatively weak fundamentals) which realized gains because of investors’ enthusiasm rather than intrinsic value, reported Bailey Lipschultz of Bloomberg.

How many ways can you say money?
Slang is used by groups of people to distinguish themselves from other groups. Sometimes, slang terms become so well known, they are adopted for general use. See what you know about money slang by taking this brief quiz.

1. In Australia, the smallest coin in value and physical size is known as:
   1. Shrapnel
   2. Toonie
   3. Bob
   4. Dosh

2. Which of the following foods is not a slang term for money?
   1. Cabbage
   2. Chips
   3. Cheddar
   4. Pickles

3. In the 1800s, the name of an American political party included a slang term for money. What was it called?
   1. Spondilux Party
   2. Long Green Party
   3. Greenback Party
   4. Moolah Party

4. If you wanted to say, “one dollar,” which term would you choose?
   1. Benjamin
   2. Simoleon
   3. Yard
   4. Sawbuck

Quiz Answers:

1. A – Shrapnel
2. D – Pickles
3. C – Greenback Party
4. B – Simoleon

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Slang is a language that rolls up its sleeves, spits on its hands, and goes to work.”
–Carl Sandburg, American poet, journalist, and editor

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/03/27/the-fed-and-the-bond-markets (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-05-21_TheEconomist-The_Fed_and_the_Bond_Markets-Footnote_1.pdf)
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
https://conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm
https://www.conference-board.org/blog/podcasts/The-Conference-Board-US-Consumer-Confidence-Increases-Again-In-February
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-30/u-s-consumer-confidence-surged-to-one-year-high-in-march (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-05-21_Bloomberg-US_Consumer_Confidence_Surges_to_One-Year_High_on_Job_Optimism-Footnote_5.pdf)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/02/us-jobs-report-march-2021.html
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/treasury-secretary-janet-yellen-on-the-need-to-go-big-with-covid-relief
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10 (Choose ‘Max’ for time frame)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-treasury-market-just-had-its-worst-quarter-since-1980-51617299808?mod=article_inline (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-05-21_Barrons-The_Treasury_Market_Just_Had_Its_Worst_Quarter_Since_1980-Footnote_10.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-torrid-market-still-has-plenty-of-room-to-run-51617401817?refsec=the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-05-21_Barrons-This_Torrid_Market_Still_Has_Plenty_of_Room_to_Run-Footnote_11.pdf)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-03/as-meme-stock-mania-fizzles-wall-street-sees-big-reckoning (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/04-05-21_Bloomberg-As_Meme_Stock_Mania_Fizzles_Wall_Street_Sees_Big_Reckoning-Footnote_12.pdf)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slang_terms_for_money
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenback_Party
https://www.dailywritingtips.com/50-slang-terms-for-money/
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/carl_sandburg_106338