2019 will be a hard act to follow.
Investors may find themselves reluctant to ring out the old and ring in the new this week. During 2019, stock and bond markets delivered exceptional returns.

Ben Levisohn of Barron’s reported the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 23 percent at the end of last week, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index had gained 29 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 36 percent.  The S&P 500 and Dow both closed at all-time highs.

Bond indices showed gains in the United States and around the world. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Total Return Index was up 8.87 percent at the end of last week. Its global counterpart, the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Total Return Index, was up 6.63 percent for the same period.

After a year like 2019, when stock indices delivered exceptional returns, investors’ perceptions about their appetite for risk can change. Great market performance has a way of persuading people their tolerance for risk is higher than it has been in the past. The phenomenon has something to do with recency bias, which is a tendency to remember and weight recent events more heavily than past events.

In other words, during bull markets some people tend to forget about bear markets.

2019 was a wonderful year, but not every year will be like 2019. At the end of last week, the average annual return for the S&P 500 Index over the last 60 years, with dividends reinvested, was about 9.5 percent.

The fact that 2020 may not be like 2019 does not mean it’s time to sell. Successful financial plans and investment strategies should include well-diversified portfolios that are grounded in the investor’s life and financial goals. Every strategy and portfolio should be reviewed periodically and modified when goals have changed, a major life event has occurred, or the investor’s risk tolerance has changed.

If you would like to talk about your strategy and review your portfolio allocations, give us a call. We’d like to hear from you.

The holidays are almost over.
Ahh, the season of good cheer and regifting is coming to an end. Before we head into 2020, the Ohio Department of Transportation deserves a holiday salute for promoting safe driving with holiday humor. About 130 highway message boards across the state offered communications like these:

• Life is fra-gee-lay. Drive safe.
• Stay to the right. Santa needs the left lane tonight.
• If your relatives make you drink, don’t drive.
• Can I refill your eggnog, Eddie?  — Clark
• Deck the halls/ No phone calls/ Fa la la la la
• Drop the phone. We triple dog dare you.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“I hope that in this year to come, you make mistakes. Because if you are making mistakes, then you are making new things, trying new things, learning, living, pushing yourself, changing yourself, changing your world. You’re doing things you’ve never done before, and, more importantly, you’re doing something.

So that’s my wish for you, and all of us, and my wish for myself. Make new mistakes. Make glorious, amazing mistakes. Make mistakes nobody’s ever made before. Don’t freeze, don’t stop, don’t worry that it isn’t good enough, or it isn’t perfect, whatever it is: art, or love, or work, or family, or life.

Whatever it is you’re scared of doing, do it.
Make your mistakes, next year and forever.”
–Neil Gaiman, Author

Best regards,
John F. Reutemann, Jr., CLU, CFP®

P.S.  Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this email with their email address and we will ask for their permission to be added.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. 
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MarketWatch, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Sources:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-jones-industrial-average-closes-at-record-high-good-luck-next-year-51577491993?mod=hp_DAY_3 (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/12-30-19_Barrons-The_Dow_is_Closing_Out_2019_with_a_Bang-Good_Luck_in_2020-Footnote_1.pdf)
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/LBUSTRUU:IND (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/12-30-19_Bloomberg-US_Aggregate_Total_Return_Value_Unhedged_USD-Footnote_2.pdf)
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/LEGATRUU:IND (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/12-30-19_Bloomberg-Global_Aggregate_Total_Return_Index_Value_Unhedged_USD-Footnote_3.pdf)
https://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/13/tomorrows-market-probably-wont-look-anything-like-today/
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-historical-return-calculator/ (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/12-30-19_DQYDJ-S_and_P_500_Historical_Return_Results-Footnote_5.pdf)
https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/state/santa-needs-the-left-lane-tonight-odot-promotes-safe-driving-with-holiday-inspired-signs
http://www.dot.state.oh.us/news/Pages/Christmas-2019-Messages.aspx
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/new-year

From early Babylonians to present-day Americans, people have been celebrating the beginning of every New Year for almost four thousand years!¹ Here are a few ways people celebrate the holiday in the United States:²

• 61 percent of American adults say a prayer on New Year’s Eve
• 44 percent plan to kiss someone at midnight
• 22 percent fall asleep before the New Year arrives
• 45 percent make resolutions to lose weight, spend less, save more, etc.
• 73 percent keep their resolutions for less than two days

One million people gather in Times Square and 2,000 pounds of confetti fall on their heads. One billion people around the world watch festivities on television. Ushering in the New Year is a momentous event.²

If you have any momentous events in your life – marriage, birth, death, divorce, or something else – please let us know. We want you to be secure financially as momentous changes can alter financial plans.

Let’s hear it for 2019!
Major stock indices in the United States and overseas are poised to deliver double-digit gains for the year. Even with uncertainty about Britain’s exit from the European Union (EU), the FTSE 100 boasted a gain of more than 10 percent at the end of last week. That’s not bad for a year which included (in the United States) an inverted yield curve, an earnings recession, and a contentious trade war.

The strong stock market performance of 2019 owes a lot to central banks, and so does the performance of the bond market. Reuters reported,  “…the screeching change of direction by the world’s top central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, which cut U.S. interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis more than a decade earlier…fired bond markets up like a rocket. U.S. Treasuries, the world’s benchmark government IOU, have made a whopping 9.4 percent after yields plunged as much as 120 basis points…German Bunds – Europe’s safest asset – have had their best year in five years, making roughly 5.5% in euro terms as the European Central Bank has reversed course too.”

So, what lessons should we take from 2019?
Perhaps, we should try to come to terms with loss aversion. When you make an investment decision, it’s important to consider the impact of loss aversion on your thinking. The pain from a loss carries twice the impact of the pleasure from a gain. As a result, fear of loss may affect investment decision making.

2019 offered a great example. During a year of exceptional returns, investors pulled money out of stocks at a record pace because they were worried about recession and other issues. Axios reported,  “Data from the Investment Company Institute shows money has been pulled out of [stock investments] in every month this year except January. In total, more than $130 billion has been drawn from [stock investments] in 2019, making it already the largest year of outflows on record.”

When it comes to investing, uncertainty is normal. It is part of investing. Tolerating uncertainty may help investors earn attractive returns. As a result, our advice is to stay invested even when uncertainty makes you nervous, even when markets are falling.

If you have a diversified portfolio built to help you reach your goals, stay with it, unless you risk tolerance has changed. In 2019, pulling money out of stocks meant some investors missed out on some exceptional returns.

Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. 
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MarketWatch, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

The secure act may affect your retirement and your legacy planning
…Last week, reports indicated the ‘Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement’ (SECURE) Act was attached to the federal spending bill President Trump signed into law on Friday.

The SECURE Act is intended to expand retirement savings opportunities. Many of its provisions make it easier for Americans to save more for retirement and, also, to convert their savings into income for retirement. The Act will change IRA rules in some significant ways. For instance, Drinker Biddle and Barron’s reported:

• Contribute to IRA accounts at any age. In the past, Americans had to stop contributing to IRAs at age 70 ½.
• Begin taking required minimum distributions (RMDs) at age 72. The age for RMDs was pushed to 72 from age 70 ½.

The Act also changes post-death IRA distribution rules, eliminating stretch IRA estate planning strategies. Barron’s explained, “Under the bill, beneficiaries of an IRA would need to draw down the account – and pay income tax on the money – over a decade, rather than a lifetime.” This will affect some legacy planning strategies and necessitate the adoption of alternative solutions.

Workplace plans may change, too. Part-time workers are now eligible to participate in defined contribution plans as long as certain criteria are met. The Act also made it easier for defined contribution plans of all sizes to add lifetime income options to plan investment lineups.

In addition, the incentive for smaller business owners to establish workplace retirement plans increased. Tax credits, of up to $5,000 for three years, can be claimed to offset plan start-up costs. Additional tax credits are possible when new plans include automatic enrollment features or existing plans add automatic enrollment features.

If you would like to discuss how the SECURE Act may affect your retirement, business, or legacy plans, please give us a call.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“I feel that one of the most important lessons that can be learned is that what we ‘see’ may be different than what is actually in front of us.”
–Mark Singer, Journalist [8]

Best regards,

John F. Reutemann, Jr., CLU, CFP®

P.S.  Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this email with their email address and we will ask for their permission to be added.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.
Sources:
https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_HAMNAV (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/12-23-19_Barrons_Market_Data.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-s-p-heading-for-best-year-since-2013-what-fueled-the-rally-51576891986?mod=hp_DAY_3 (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/12-23-19_The_S%26P_Is_Heading_for_Its_Best_Year_Since_2013.pdf )
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-2019-graphic/the-best-year-financial-markets-have-ever-had-idUSKBN1YO266
https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/loss-aversion
https://www.axios.com/2019-record-cash-pulled-out-stocks-5d4763a9-5724-4c64-be23-356c4fcbd002.html
https://www.drinkerbiddle.com/insights/publications/2019/12/congress-finally-passes-the-secure-act
https://www.barrons.com/articles/navigating-the-secure-act-what-retirement-savers-need-to-know-to-optimize-their-401-k-s-and-iras-51576886142?mod=hp_LEAD_3 (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/12-23-19_Navigating_the_Secure_Act_What_Retirement_Savers_Need_To_Know_To_Otimize_Their_401ks_And_IRAS.pdf)
https://www.fool.com/retirement/general/2014/08/31/5-retirement-quotes-to-make-you-a-smarter-investor.aspx

So, what comes next?
Last week was a good week for investors. Ben Levisohn of Barron’s explained:  

“The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank both pledged to do what they could to underpin their respective economies. The United Kingdom gave Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party a landslide victory, virtually guaranteeing that the Brexit saga will end, finally.”

‘Get Brexit done’ was the slogan of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s conservative party and British voters confirmed that’s what they want. As a result, Parliament is likely to accept the Prime Minister’s withdrawal agreement. Under current deadlines, the United Kingdom will begin to transition out of the European Union (EU) at the end of January, reported The Economist.

Prime Minister Johnson promised to complete the transition by December 2020 despite skepticism about whether trade agreements can be negotiated and ratified in such a short time. The Economist reported, “…unless Mr. Johnson is ready to ask for an extension, the risk of Britain leaving the EU with no trade deal in place at the end of next year will be significant. The result would be high barriers to exports and severe disruption to trade.”

There was another important event last week. The United States government announced, “…a phase-one deal with China had been completed and that negotiations on phase two would begin immediately. Details were lacking, but it was surely good news,” reported Levisohn.

The Wall Street Journal reported the deal has been agreed to in principle, although nothing has been signed, and neither the United States nor the Chinese government released the text of the agreement or a detailed summary.

The information released indicates the United States cancelled tariffs scheduled to take effect last Sunday and reduced current tariffs on $120 million of Chinese goods. In return, China agreed to increase purchases of agricultural goods over the next two years. The agreement is scheduled to be signed in January.

Let’s hope they ink the deal!

life begins at 40. In 1932, psychologist Walter Pitkin published a self-help book called ‘Life Begins at Forty.’ The Economist summarized his findings like this, “The theory goes that years of hard work are rewarded with less stress and better pay; children begin to fly the nest; and with luck, a decent period of good health remains.”

At the time, the book was something of a revelation. After all, throughout much of the 1800s, life expectancy at birth was about 40. When Pitkin wrote his book, newborn Americans were expected to reach age 60, on average.

It turns out Pitkin was on to something.

The Economist reviewed the findings of the 2019 World Happiness Report, which uses data from the Gallup World Poll. It found people in the United States and around the world generally are happy in their teens and early 20s. By the time they reach their 30s, however, happiness levels have dropped. People begin to recover a more positive state of mind at age 40. For many, by age 70, self-reported happiness is higher than it was in their teens and 20s.

There are differences in self-reported happiness from country to country. For instance, happiness in former Soviet states tends to decline with age. In addition, overall, self-reported happiness in India has declined during the past several years.

So, who are happiest people in the world? American women age 70 and older!

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“I am still every age that I have been. Because I was once a child, I am always a child. Because I was once a searching adolescent, given to moods and ecstasies, these are still part of me, and always will be…Far too many people misunderstand what ‘putting away childish things’ means, and think that forgetting what it is like to think and feel and touch and smell and taste and see and hear like a three-year-old or a thirteen-year-old or a twenty-three-year-old means being grownup. When I’m with these people I, like the kids, feel that if this is what it means to be a grown-up, then I don’t ever want to be one. Instead of which, if I can retain a child’s awareness and joy, and be fifty-one, then I will really learn what it means to be grownup.”
–Madeleine L’Engle, Author and poet

Best regards,

John F. Reutemann, Jr., CLU, CFP®

P.S.  Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this email with their email address and we will ask for their permission to be added.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. 
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MarketWatch, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Sources:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/lots-went-right-for-investors-this-week-the-dow-still-ended-friday-on-a-flat-note-51576282633?mod=hp_DAY_4 (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/12-16-19_Barrons-Lots_Went_Right_for_Investors_this_Week-The_Dow_Still_Ended_Friday_on_a_Flat_Note-Footnote_1.pdf)
https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/12/13/boris-johnsons-big-win?cid1=cust/ednew/n/bl/n/2019/12/13n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/NA/360436/n (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/12-16-19_TheEconomist-Boris_Johnsons_Big_Win-Footnote_2.pdf)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-china-confirm-reaching-phase-one-trade-deal-11576234325 (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/12-16-19_WSJ-US_China_Agree_to_Limited_Deal_to_Halt_Trade_War-Footnote_3.pdf)
https://www.amazon.com/Life-Begins-Forty-Walter-Pitkin/dp/B00085JNB4
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/04/12/do-people-become-happier-after-40 (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/12-16-19_TheEconomist-Do_People_Become_Happier_After_40-Footnote_5.pdf)
https://www.infoplease.com/us/mortality/life-expectancy-age-1850-2011
https://www.thecut.com/2014/09/25-famous-women-on-aging.html

Ahh, the power of distraction.
On Friday, the unemployment report flashed its numbers like a hair model in a shampoo commercial. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 266,000 new jobs were created in November. That was better than expected even after deducting the 40,000-plus General Motors employees returning to work, reported CNBC.

The sign of economic strength helped major U.S. stock indices recover from losses suffered earlier in the week – mostly.

The week got off to a rough start when President Trump indicated there was little urgency to resolving the trade dispute with China. The statement upset expectations a phase one trade deal would be completed before December 15. That’s the date the United States is scheduled to put additional tariffs on Chinese consumer goods. New tariffs could inspire additional actions by the Chinese government that affect economic growth in the United States.

To date, U.S. economic growth has slowed from 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019 to 1.9 percent in the third quarter.

The slowdown was caused, in part, by Chinese tariffs on American products. Tariffs have had a negative effect on manufacturing and agriculture, as well as other sectors of the market. Trade uncertainty also has led to a decline in business investment. When business investment drops so does the economy’s growth potential. The main engine behind U.S. economic growth has been and remains the American people. Consumer spending accounted for 68 percent of U.S. economic growth in the third quarter.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index finished the week in positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite finished down 0.1 percent.

The evolving etiquette of social media.
Social media etiquette makes remembering when to use the little fork on the right – you know, the one next to the two knives and spoon (the oyster fork) – seem like a snap.

When social media platforms were gaining popularity, they offered an opportunity to reconnect and stay in touch with friends and family. During the past decade, many people joined platforms and built networks. They also started to engage in some unwelcome behaviors. Sometimes, social media is a place where people:  “…can say mean things without showing their face, discriminate with little consequence, and spill details nobody truly wants to hear,” explained Influence.co. “…it’s vital for people to remember that social media is meant to bring people together and that our online behavior can quickly come between us.”

To make it easier to understand which behaviors these are, the organization conducted a survey. The top digital don’ts included:

1. Bullying others in comments (91.1 percent)
2. Sharing discriminatory content (89.2 percent)
3. Posting fake news (88.8 percent)
4. Making passive-aggressive posts (78.5 percent)
5. Oversharing personal details (77.4 percent)
6. Complaining about a partner (75.8 percent)
7. Giving medical advice (48.3 percent)
8. Excessive hashtag use (33.8 percent)

It’s also a poor idea to post content about another person without their permission. One in 10 respondents had ended a friendship over it. Finally, many people find it irritating when asked to delay eating a meal so a dinner companion can photograph it.

It’s food for thought.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“One of the big no-no’s in cyberspace is that you do not go into a social activity, a chat group, or something like that, and start advertising or selling things. This etiquette rule is an attempt to separate one’s social life, which should be pure enjoyment and relaxation, from the pressures of work.”
–Judith Martin, a.k.a. Miss Manners, Etiquette authority

Best regards,

John F. Reutemann, Jr., CLU, CFP®

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Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
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Sources:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/06/us-nonfarm-payrolls-november-2019.html
https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-jones-industrial-average-ends-week-lower-despite-strong-jobs-report-51575684786?mod=hp_DAY_3 (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/12-09-19_Barrons-The_Jobs_Numbers_were_Great-The_Dow_Still_Finished_Down_for_the_Week-Footnote_3.pdf)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/did-trump-talk-bluster-or-was-he-hinting-that-china-talks-collapse-either-way-stock-futures-slump-2019-12-03
https://apps.bea.gov/scb/2019/11-november/pdf/1119-gdp-economy.pdf
https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2019-advance-estimate
https://www.npr.org/2019/12/06/785280703/how-hard-are-tariffs-hitting-the-economy-it-depends-on-who-you-ask
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W790RC1Q027SBEA
https://www3.nd.edu/~cwilber/econ504/504book/outln11b.html
https://emilypost.com/advice/formal-place-setting/
https://influence.co/go/content/social-media-etiquette.htm
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/judith_martin_581570?src=t_etiquette