At dinner this past week with a long-time client, I was asked what I thought of Jim Cramer.  I kindly said, “He’s a great speaker, entertainer, and educator, but I’m not sure of his investment advice track record, let me dig up the facts for you.”

An Examination of a Prominent Financial Pundit’s Forecasting Record

A well-known figure in financial media appearing on CNBC’s Mad Money program, Jim Cramer who is often seen as a financial guru, frequently offers his opinions on stock market movements and specific investment opportunities. While his pronouncements often grab headlines and can immediately sway certain stock prices, a deeper look into his long-term prediction accuracy reveals a more nuanced, and often debated, picture.

In the short term, there’s evidence that companies he highlights can experience an initial bump in value, sometimes seeing gains of over a percent in the hours immediately following his televised endorsements. However, this effect tends to be fleeting and does not consistently translate into superior performance over extended periods. When examining the trajectory of his recommended stocks over several months, their collective performance generally aligns with broader market indices, indicating no consistent advantage over simply holding a market-tracking fund.

Analyses of his written investment calls suggest that his success rate hovers slightly below what one might achieve through pure chance, and falls short when compared to other market strategists. A detailed review of hundreds of his “buy” and “sell” suggestions showed that while he might be correct in about three out of five immediate instances, his precision declines significantly after just a month, often leading to negative average returns. Interestingly, his advice to sell stocks sometimes fared better than his “buy” calls, though even then, his correct “sell” predictions were only accurate about 42% of the time over a longer duration.

This commentator has also been associated with several high-profile misjudgments, such as his positive outlook on a bank shortly before its collapse or repeated misinterpretations of a major cryptocurrency exchange’s stock performance. These errors have fueled a popular counter-strategy, where some investors actively bet against his public recommendations, dubbing it the “Inverse” effect. Instances exist where his “sell” advice was followed by considerable gains in those very stocks, further highlighting a lack of consistent foresight.

Within investment circles, his frequent miscalls have become a running jest, inspiring even financial products designed to capitalize on taking the opposite side of his positions. His animated and dramatic presentation style is often perceived as prioritizing entertainment value over consistently sound financial guidance.

In summary, while this high-profile financial personality undeniably wields short-term influence over stock movements, his long-term ability to accurately predict market direction or consistently outperform the market remains unsubstantiated. His forecasting precision tends to be inconsistent, marked by notable misjudgments. Therefore, investors should exercise caution and avoid solely relying on his pronouncements for their long-term investment decisions.

Ultimately, for long-term financial growth, it’s crucial to have a financial advisor who genuinely understands your unique situation and personal goals. Sustainable wealth building stems from a tailored strategy and disciplined approach, not from chasing risky, short-term stock plays based on televised commentary.

No more passing them by when you see one on the sidewalk. Forget about wasting a couple by putting them in your loafers. And don’t even consider throwing them into a wishing well.

The Treasury Department has announced that it is dropping the penny. Officials say the last new pennies will enter circulation in 2026.

Long term—and we’re talking many, many years—don’t expect there to be much difference with your “small change.” After all, there are 114 billion pennies in circulation today. That means roughly 900 for each of the 128 million families in the U.S.

Why the change? Cost, mostly. It costs 3.7 cents to make a penny. Which means the nickel could be next. It costs about 13.8 cents to make those. 

“No More Pennies Could Spark Higher Inflation,” read one of my favorite headlines when the Treasury announced the news.

Some inflation hawks concluded that businesses will start to “round up” prices immediately, putting upward pressure on costs. But that seems like a hasty conclusion. When you dig into the details, you see that nearly 70 percent of in-store payments occur with credit or debit cards. Another big chunk utilizes digital wallets. So, not many retailers are handing back coins to customers.

In fact, I went to a baseball game last week, and the ballpark proudly boasted, “It’s a cashless venue.” Each concession only accepts cards or digital wallets for payment. 

If anyone should be upset about this penny business, it’s Abraham Lincoln. He’s no longer going to be on a coin and a bill. That club now includes only two presidents!  

^Sources:

CNBC.com, May 22, 2025. “Get ready to round up: Treasury set to halt penny production”

Finance.Yahoo.com, March 29, 2025. “10 of the Most Valuable Pennies”

USMint.gov, 2025. “Coins – Penny”

Capitaloneshopping.com, May 27, 2025. “Cash vs Credit Card Spending Statistics”

MLB.com, 2025. “Information Guides”

Memorial Day is so much more than a long weekend.

It is a chance for us to remember those who gave all for this great nation and the freedoms it offers.

This Memorial Day, we pay tribute to the lives and legacies of those who made the ultimate sacrifice in serving our country, and we honor their courage.

Wishing you and yours a peaceful Memorial Day.