Dear Friends and Clients,

This week, a good friend and client brought something significant to my attention. Despite our initial struggles to uncover the full story, my resourceful son-in-law managed to locate it. It comprises three parts and runs approximately 45 minutes in length. I urge you to take the time to watch it.

Why? Firstly, it offers riveting entertainment as Jon Stewart effectively dismantles Jim Cramer’s narrative regarding the events spanning from October 2007 to March 2009. Secondly, it stands as a testament to its accuracy—Jim Cramer’s defense boiled down to mere claims of being misled by acquaintances. And thirdly, it resonates with a message I’ve been advocating since 1991: the narrative of bear markets. Over the past 99 years, there have been a total of 20 such markets. Do you believe there won’t be a 21st? As a reminder, during the 2007-2009 bear market, when the SP-500 was -57%, the RFS growth model was -4%.

Allow me to share something I am deeply passionate about—the untold side of the story. Yes, a market decline of 57% is staggering. But what many fail to grasp, unless they delve into the statistics or engage with mental health professionals, is the collateral damage. As the bear market persisted, reaching into the summer of 2009, we witnessed alarming spikes in suicides, depression, domestic abuse, violence, substance abuse, foreclosures, evictions, and repossessions. These are the grim realities obscured by the buy-and-hold rhetoric espoused by firms like Vanguard and Fidelity.

As a wise general once remarked, “Those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” I implore you to watch the videos, encourage your adult children to do the same, and share them with anyone in your circle who could benefit from the unvarnished truth. For, alas, such truths are seldom found on the polished surfaces of Fidelity or Vanguard websites.

 Very seriously,

 Jack

Part 1: 
https://www.cc.com/video/fttmoj/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-exclusive-jim-cramer-extended-interview-pt-1

Part 2:
https://www.cc.com/video/iinzrx/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-jim-cramer-pt-2

Part 3: 
https://www.cc.com/video/gliow5/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-jim-cramer-pt-3

February isn’t over yet, but the Cleveland Fed has released its projections for a few key economic markers. Why are these markers important? The Fed likes to look at the Consumer Personal Expenditures (CPE) to gauge whether or not their plan to curb inflation is working. The projected CPE for February is 2.27, trending towards the 2% the Fed is looking for before announcing that inflation has been under control. Given the Fed’s caution about reducing interest rates until the CPE is holding steady at 2% or lower, the Fed will likely only reduce interest rates once these markers are met. In the meantime, stay focused on your financial goals, and if you have any questions/concerns, please don’t hesitate to reach out.

Thanks to everyone for helping us make this another successful event!   Clients, advisors and friends always make this one of our favorites each year!

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