Weekly Market Commentary

by | Aug 22, 2025 | Carson

The Markets

Was inflation higher, lower, or steady?

Perspective has a tremendous influence on how we perceive the world around us. If you saw any three-dimensional chalk drawings on sidewalks this summer, you understand how perspective affects understanding. When seen from one direction, a chalk drawing looks flat. When seen from another, a winged dragon surges from a hole in the pavement.

Last week, major news sources had varied perspectives on inflation. Here are a few of the headlines we saw:

“Core Inflation Rises to 3.1 [percent]” (Barron’s)

“Inflation holds steady…” (CNN)

“Inflation cools slightly in July from prior month” (Fox Business)

Remarkably, all were correct. The news sources simply highlighted different aspects of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Here’s what the CPI showed for June and July of this year.

 

 

June 2025 (month to month)

July 2025 (month to month)

June 2025

(year over year)

July 2025

(year over year)

 

Headline inflation

(all items measured)

0.3%

0.2%

2.7%

2.7%

 

Core inflation (excludes volatile food and energy prices)

0.2%

0.3%

2.9%

3.1%

 

Headline inflation moved slightly lower, on a month-to-month basis (from June to July). It remained steady year over year, which is the 12-month period through July 2025. In contrast, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, moved slightly higher on a month-to-month basis (from June to July). It increased year over year.

The Federal Reserve (Fed)’s target for inflation is 2 percent.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) came out last week, too. It tracks how prices have changed for groups that produce and sell goods and services. It was up 3.3 percent in July, year over year, which was higher than June’s 2.4 percent increase.

“U.S. wholesale inflation accelerated in July by the most in three years, suggesting companies are passing along higher import costs related to tariffs. The producer price index increased 0.9 [percent] from a month earlier, the largest advance since consumer inflation peaked in June 2022…,” reported Augusta Saraiva of Bloomberg.

Last week, major U.S. stock indexes continued to rally. U.S. Treasury yields were mixed. Yields for some shorter maturities of Treasuries moved lower, while yields on longer maturities rose.

WHERE ARE INTEREST RATES HEADED? One of the drivers behind the recent stock market rally has been an expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will respond to softening economic data by lowering the federal funds rate, reported Saeed Azhar, Johann M Cherian and Sanchayaita Roy of Reuters.

Fed rate cuts are intended to stimulate economic growth by making it less expensive to borrow money. When it’s cheaper to borrow, companies’ expenses may fall and profits can increase, lifting stock prices, reported Mary Hall of Investopedia.

After last week’s Consumer Price Index was released, expectations for a September Fed rate cut soared above 90 percent, according to CME FedWatch. “Inflation is still higher than the Federal Reserve would like — but not high enough to stop the central bank from cutting interest rates next month. That’s investors’ takeaway from yesterday’s consumer price index report,” reported Phil Serafino and Edward Bolingbroke of Bloomberg.

The catch is that a Fed rate cut doesn’t always have the intended effect. Sometimes, the Fed reduces or increases the federal funds rate and other interest rates don’t follow suit. Bloomberg Economics Chief Economist Tom Orlick explained:

“Let’s cast our minds back briefly to the early 2000s, to [former Fed Chair] Ben Bernanke and to the famous savings glut hypothesis. So, back then, the Fed was hiking [the federal funds rate] but long-term Treasury rates weren’t going up. Bernanke said it’s because there’s a glut of global savings. All of this money is coming from China and Saudi into the U.S. Treasury market…that situation is reversed and we’re no longer in a world with a savings glut. We’re in a world with a savings shortage. And that means it doesn’t matter who President Trump appoints as the next Fed chair…that savings shortage is going to mean that long-term rates, the 10-year Treasury yield stays high and…we think 4 to 5 percent for the 10-year Treasury is the new normal.”

The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yielded 4.27 percent at the start of last week. By week’s end it was at 4.33 percent.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“I don’t think there’s too much normal out there anymore. Though there’s still plenty of average to go around.”
― John David Anderson, Author

Sources:

https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/inflation-july-cpi-rate-report/card/core-inflation-rises-to-3-1–UD6vxFsucLKhK6pJYSX8  or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/08-18-25-Core-Inflation-Rises-1.pdf

https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/12/economy/us-cpi-consumer-inflation-july

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/cpi-inflation-july-2025

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07152025.htm

https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2024/q1_q2_federal_reserve

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPUFD4&output_view=pct_12mths

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-14/us-producer-prices-rise-by-most-in-three-years-on-services

https://www.barrons.com/market-data  or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/08-18-25-Barrons-Market-Graphs-9.pdf

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/sp-500-nasdaq-hit-new-closing-highs-rate-cut-hopes-2025-08-13/  https://www.investopedia.com/investing/how-interest-rates-affect-stock-market/

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html  or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/08-18-25-FedWatch-Market-Rate-Probabilities-11.pdf

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-08-13/fed-rate-cut-bets-ramping-up-after-inflation-data?srnd=phx-economics-v2  or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/08-18-25-Fed-Rate-Cut-Bets-12.pdf

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-08-07/-the-price-of-money-with-bloomberg-s-tom-orlik-video

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/search?q=unexpected

 

Weekly Market Insights | Investors React to Mixed Signals

by | Aug 18, 2025 | Weekly Stock Market Commentary

Stocks rose last week despite mixed signals on inflation as investors kept one eye on the Fed’s September meeting.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.94 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 0.81 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.74 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased 2.16 percent.1,2

Third Gain in Four Weeks

Stocks posted modest losses to start the week as investors braced for July consumer inflation reports. The White House’s executive order on Monday extending the tariff deadline for China by 90 days failed to move markets in the other direction.3

Stocks then staged a two-day rally following the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed July inflation held steady over the prior month—beating expectations. The inflation news led some investors to move into small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks rising 5 percent over Tuesday and Wednesday.4

However, markets slipped Thursday as investors dug into the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, which showed wholesale inflation hit a 3-year high last month; this was the third weekly gain in the past four weeks for each of the three major averages; the S&P and Nasdaq advanced four of the last five weeks.5,6,7

A Mixed Inflation Story

Inflation continues to give mixed signals, which can unsettle investors who anticipate the Fed adjusting rates at its September meeting.

Last week’s CPI report showed that “headline” (retail) inflation held steady. Stocks rose in response, even though core inflation—excluding volatile food and energy prices—was hotter than economists expected.

Two days later, the PPI report revealed that inflation began to creep into wholesale prices in July. Stocks fell in response as investors processed the conflicting reports.8,9

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Homebuilder Confidence Index.

Tuesday: Housing Starts. Building Permits. Federal Reserve Official Michelle Bowman speaks.

Wednesday: Minutes from Fed’s FOMC July Meeting. Federal Reserve Official Christopher Waller and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speak.

Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Services & Manufacturing PMI Composite. Existing Home Sales. Leading Economic Indicators. 30-Year TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) Auction. Fed Balance Sheet. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks.

Friday: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks.

Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; August 15, 2025
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW)

Tuesday: The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)

Wednesday: The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX), Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW), Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI)

Thursday: Walmart Inc. (WMT), Intuit Inc. (INTU)

Source: Zacks, August 15, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

“If you would be loved, love and be lovable.”

– Benjamin Franklin

Learn About ABLE Accounts

People with disabilities can use an Achieving a Better Life Experience (ABLE) account to help pay qualified disability-related expenses. Here are some things to know about ABLE accounts:

  • This tax-advantaged savings account doesn’t affect their eligibility for government assistance programs.

  • ABLE account-designated beneficiaries may be eligible to claim the saver’s credit for a percentage of their contributions.
  • Eligible beneficiaries must be 18 years old at the close of the taxable year, not dependent or full-time students, and meet the income requirements.
  • Families may roll over funds from a 529 plan to another family member’s ABLE account.
  • Disability-related expenses include housing, education, transportation, health, prevention and wellness, employment training and support, assistive technology, and personal support services.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS10

Infused Water Recipes

Staying hydrated is essential for our overall health, and these fun, delicious infused water options make drinking water a little more fun. Bonus points if you try them with sparkling water for a bit of fizz!

  • Honeydew, cucumber, and mint
  • Watermelon, kiwi, and lime
  • Mango, raspberries, and ginger root
  • Blackberries, orange, and ginger root
  • Grapefruit, pomegranate, and mint
  • Pineapple, coconut, and lime
  • Blueberries, lemon, and rosemary
  • Strawberries, lemon, and basil

To infuse your water with these delicious combinations, just put all the ingredients in a pitcher, add water, and remove the fruits, veggies, or herbs in 24 hours. Drinking water has never been tastier or more beautiful.

Tip Adapted from Culinary Hill11

Create a 13-letter word using all 13 of the following letters: O A I I S T T R R D N A M.

Last Week’s Riddle: What is worn by the foot and often bought by the yard?
Answer: Carpet.

Blue-Ringed Octopus
Lembeh Straits, Indonesia

Footnotes and Sources

1. WSJ.com, August 15, 2025

2. Investing.com, August 15, 2025  

3. CNBC.com, August 11, 2025

4. CNBC.com, August 13, 2025

5. MarketWatch.com, August 14, 2025

6. WSJ.com, August 15, 2025

7. WSJ.com, August 15, 2025

8. CNBC.com, August 12, 2025

9. MarketWatch.com, August 14, 2025

10. IRS.gov, July 22, 2024 

11. Culinary Hill, March 19, 2025

Weekly Market Commentary

by | Aug 14, 2025 | Carson

The Markets

U.S. companies have been hitting it out of the park!

Earnings season happens four times every year. It’s the period of time when publicly traded companies report how they performed during the previous quarter. So far, in aggregate, the companies in the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index have delivered solid results for the second quarter of 2025.

“Overall, 66 [percent] of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q2 2025 to date. Of these companies, 82 [percent] have reported actual EPS [earnings per share] above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 78 [percent] and above the 10-year average of 75 [percent]. If 82 [percent] is the final number for the quarter, it will mark the largest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise for a quarter since Q3 2021 (also 82 [percent]),” reported John Butters of FactSet.

While many U.S. companies had an excellent second quarter, economic clouds are shadowing investor optimism.

“Investors are struggling with a contradiction at the heart of the market as stocks move into their toughest months of the year. On the one hand, earnings have been strong. On the other, economic data are showing signs of weakness. How the two variables play out could determine whether the stock market can keep rallying to new highs—or stumbles into an end-of-summer selloff,” explained Martin Baccardax of Barron’s.

Recent economic data show a softening labor market and weaker consumer spending. (Consumer spending is the primary driver of U.S. economic growth.) In addition, activity in the manufacturing and service sectors slowed. Nazmul Ahasan of Bloomberg reported:

“The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services declined last month to 50.1, below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Readings above 50 indicate expansion…The data, released Tuesday, paint a picture of a sluggish service economy wrestling with the fallout of higher tariffs, cautious consumers and [policy] uncertainty…The services sector is by far the largest in the U.S. economy, and has helped drive growth this year while the manufacturing industry contracted for five straight months.”

Last week, the major U.S. stock indexes rallied. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at a record high, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Indexes finished the week close to new highs, reported Amalya Dubrovsky , Brett LoGiurato  and Laura Bratton of Yahoo! Finance. U.S. Treasury yields generally moved higher. The 30-year Treasury bond yielding 4.85% at the end of last week.

BURGERNOMICS: A LOOK AT THE BIG MAC INDEX. During the first six months of 2025, the United States dollar delivered its worst performance since 1991. “The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the value of the greenback against the world’s six most traded currencies, has lost almost 11 [percent] of its value…,” reported Valerio Baselli of Morningstar.

The drop in the U.S. dollar’s value hasn’t made as big a difference as some might have expected – at least when it comes to buying burgers abroad.

Since 1986, The Economist has been using the “Big Mac Index” as a lighthearted way to measure the relative value of currencies across the world. In theory, if currency exchange rates are properly aligned, a burger should cost the same no matter where it is purchased. (This is known as purchasing-power parity.) That’s rarely the case, so the index helps identify which countries’ currencies are overvalued or undervalued.

“Purchasing-power parity suggests that, with a Taiwanese Big Mac costing 78 Taiwanese dollars and an American one $6.01, the currencies’ exchange rate should be the ratio of the two prices. Hence $1 should buy NT$13 [new Taiwan dollars]. In reality, it buys NT$29. The Big Mac index therefore concludes that the Taiwanese dollar is greatly undervalued against the greenback, by some 56 [percent],” explained The Economist.

In July 2025, The Economist updated the Index, comparing the price of a burger in the U.S. to the price overseas. (The price of a burger in the United States rose from $5.79 in January to $6.01 in July.) After the decline in the U.S. dollar, currencies in many Asian countries remained significantly undervalued relative to the dollar. For example, a burger costs:

  • 49.8 percent less in Hong Kong than it does in the United States.
  • 41.2 percent less in Japan than it does in the United States.
  • 41.1 percent less in Indonesia than it does in the United States.
  • 38.5 percent less in India than it does in the United States.

In contrast, a burger costs:

  • 54.7 percent more in Switzerland than it does in the United States.
  • 39.0 percent more in Sweden than it does in the United States.
  • 36.1 percent more in the Euro than it does in the United States.
  • 31.1 percent more in Britain than it does in the United States.

Overall, European countries have seen their currencies become more expensive when compared to the U.S. dollar, while currencies in China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam remain undervalued relative to the U.S. dollar. “Most are now even cheaper,” according to The Economist.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“Every individual… neither intends to promote the public interest, nor knows how much he is promoting it… he intends only his own security; and by directing that industry in such a manner as its produce may be of the greatest value, he intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention.”
― Adam Smith, Philosopher and economist

Sources:

https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-august-1-2025

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-earnings-data-buy-sell-f3743245?mod=hp_LEDE_C_3 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/08-11-25-The-Stock-Market-Is-Stuck%20-%202.pdf

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/us-headed-recession-experts-weigh/story?id=124407347

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-01/us-manufacturing-contracts-at-fastest-pace-in-nine-months or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/08-11-25-US-Manufacturing-Contracts%20-%204.pdf

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-05/us-service-activity-nearly-stagnates-as-employment-contracts or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/08-11-25-US-Service-Activity%20-%205.pdf

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-nasdaq-hits-fresh-record-sp-500-dow-rise-as-wall-street-closes-winning-week-on-high-note-200211215.html

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025

https://global.morningstar.com/en-gb/markets/how-low-can-us-dollar-go

https://www.economist.com/interactive/big-mac-index or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/08-11-25-Our-Big-Mac-Index-Shows-How-Burger%20-%209.pdf

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/07/16/our-big-mac-index-will-sadden-americas-burger-lovers or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/08-11-25-Our-Big-Mac-Index-Will-Sadden%20-%2010.pdf

https://www.adamsmith.org/adam-smith-quotes

Weekly Market Insights | Stocks Rise on Earnings, Despite Tariffs

by | Aug 11, 2025 | Weekly Stock Market Commentary

Stocks rebounded last week as investor optimism for a September rate adjustment and strong Q2 corporate results overcame the rollout of fresh tariffs.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 2.43 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 3.87 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.35 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased 2.77 percent.1,2

Stocks Gyrate

Stocks pushed higher to start the week, with major averages gaining between 1.3 percent and 2 percent—their best day since May. Investors seemed more optimistic for a rate move after the weaker-than-expected July jobs report.3,4

Stocks rose again midweek after the White House confirmed a mega-cap tech company would invest $500 billion more in domestic manufacturing. News of additional tariffs on India was greeted with a muted reaction from investors.5

The updated tariffs previously announced by the White House went into effect on Thursday. Markets initially rose in early trading but then came under pressure as the day continued.6

But the S&P and Dow rose again on Friday, ending the week with solid gains. The tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the week with a record close.7

Economy Watch

Services comprise 70 percent of the economy, so Wall Street closely monitors the Institute for Supply Management’s Services Index.

So, news on Tuesday that growth in services came below economists’ expectations was a bit of a concern. However, investors seemed to quickly look past the number and focus more on the 122 S&P 500 companies that reported earnings last week.8,9

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Federal Budget.

Wednesday: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks.

Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Producer Price Index (PPI). Fed Balance Sheet. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks.

Friday: Retail Sales. Industrial Production. Import & Export Prices. Business Inventories. Consumer Sentiment.

Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; August 8, 2025
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Wednesday: Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

Thursday: Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT), Deere & Company (DE), NetEase, Inc. (NTES)

Source: Zacks, August 8, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

“We should all do something to right the wrongs that we see and not just complain about them.”

– Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis

Using the IRS2Go App

Did you know that the IRS has an app that makes checking some things off your tax to-do list easy? Using the app, you can:

  • Check your refund status. Your refund status is available within 24 hours after the IRS receives your e-filed return (or four weeks after receiving a paper return).
  • Access IRS Free File. Free File is a tax prep software for taxpayers whose total adjusted gross income was $84,000 or less.
  • Find payment options, including IRS Direct Pay, which allows you to pay tax bills directly from your bank account.
  • Get tax help.
  • Stay up to date with updates from the IRS.This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional. 

Tip adapted from IRS10

Satisfy Your Sweet Tooth With Dates

Do you have a sweet tooth but want to limit refined sugar? Dates are just the answer! These nutrient-rich powerhouses are sweet, succulent, and good for you!

Dates are high in fiber, potassium, magnesium, and Vitamin B6, among many other nutrients. They are also high in antioxidants and may promote brain, bone, and blood sugar control. 

Dates are easy to add to your diet. Snack on them, add them to dishes as a natural sweetener, or blend them in a smoothie. These nutritious and delicious treats are perfect for kicking cookies and cakes without giving up an indulgent taste.

Tip Adapted from Healthline11

What is worn by the foot and often bought by the yard?

Last Week’s Riddle: They can run side by side for thousands of miles; they are made of steel. While they constantly touch the ground, they seldom meet or touch each other. What are they?
Answer: Railroad tracks.

Lotus Temple
Delhi, India

Footnotes and Sources

1. WSJ.com, August 8, 2025

2. Investing.com, August 8, 2025  

3. MarketWatch.com, August 4, 2025

4. CNBC.com, August 5, 2025

5. CNBC.com, August 6, 2025

6. WSJ.com, August 7, 2025

7. WSJ.com, August 8, 2025

8. WSJ.com, August 5, 2025

9. Advantage.FactSet.com, August 1, 2025

10. IRS.gov, April 18, 2024 

11. Healthline, March 19, 2025

Weekly Market Insights | Markets Retreat After Data-Heavy Week

by | Aug 4, 2025 | Weekly Stock Market Commentary

Stocks fell last week as investors assessed progress on trade negotiations, new U.S. tariffs, and fresh data on the U.S. economy.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 2.36 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 2.17 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.92 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 2.95 percent.1,2

Action-Packed Week

Stocks largely went sideways over the first half of the week as investors waited for more Q2 corporate results, fresh economic data, and the Fed decision.

The U.S.-E.U. trade agreement announced over the weekend had a muted impact on the market as the week began. Stocks then retreated as China trade talks appeared to stall, with the Dow declining the most of the three major averages through midweek.3,4

Stocks gained on Wednesday morning after the latest gross domestic product (GDP) report showed consumer spending powered the economy back to 3 percent annualized growth in Q2. That afternoon, the Federal Reserve announced they were holding rates steady, which put some pressure on stocks.5

Selling pressure continued on July’s final trading day as investors continued to fret about the Fed’s next move. The Personal Consumption and Expenditures (PCE) Index—the Fed’s favored inflation metric—showed a June uptick in core goods prices, unsettling investors.5

Stocks were under pressure from the opening bell on Friday as investors sorted through fresh tariff announcements from the White House, a softer-than-expected July jobs report, and mixed Q2 corporate reports from two megacap tech names.6,7

Mixed Economic Signals

There was a trove of economic data for investors to parse last week.

First, there was economic growth. While 3 percent GDP growth in Q2 is a solid step up from a 0.5 percent contraction in Q1, consumer spending largely drove the increase, offset by slower business spending—especially investment in equipment and buildings.8

The PCE report showed why the Fed remains focused on inflation. Finally, Friday’s jobs report pointed to a slowdown in hiring in July. A bit more concerning was that the jobs data from prior months were revised lower.

The Fed has no meeting in August, with three other meetings scheduled for 2025.

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Factory Orders. Motor Vehicles Sales.

Tuesday: Trade Deficit. ISM Services Index.

Wednesday: Treasury Buyback Announcement. 10-Year Treasury Note Auction. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks.

Thursday: Productivity and Costs. Weekly Jobless Claims. Wholesale Inventories. Consumer Credit. Fed Balance Sheet. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks.

Friday: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks.

Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; August 1, 2025
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday:  Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX)

Tuesday: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), Amgen Inc. (AMGN), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), Pfizer Inc. (PFE), Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)

Wednesday: McDonald’s Corporation (MCD), The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER), Shopify Inc. (SHOP), AppLovin Corporation (APP), DoorDash Inc. (DASH), Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. (BAM)

Thursday: Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD), ConocoPhillips (COP), Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)

Source: Zacks, August 1, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

“Judge each day not by the harvest you reap but by the seeds you plant.”

– Robert Louis Stevenson

What to Know About Excise Tax as a Business Owner

Federal and state excise taxes are for specific goods, services, and activities, such as fuel, tobacco, alcohol, airline tickets, and more. 

If your business is subject to excise tax, you must file a Form 720, Quarterly Excise Tax Return, to report the tax. You must also file this form every quarter.  

You can electronically file Form 720. Each industry may have its forms (ex: Form 2290, Heavy Highway Vehicle Use Tax). 

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS9

Pumpkin Bread

It started out as a seasonal treat. Now folks enjoy it all year round. Here’s how to make it for yourself.

Ingredients:

2 cups all-purpose flour
½ teaspoon salt and baking powder
1 teaspoon baking soda, ground cloves, ground cinnamon, and ground nutmeg
1½ sticks (¾ cup) unsalted butter, softened
2 cups sugar
2 large eggs
1 15-oz can pumpkin

Directions:

  1. Preheat the oven to 325°F

  2. In a medium bowl, combine the flour, salt, baking soda, baking powder, cloves, cinnamon, and nutmeg. Whisk until well combined; set aside.
  3. With an electric mixer, beat the butter and sugar on medium speed until just blended. Continue beating until very light and fluffy, a few minutes. Beat in the pumpkin.
  4. Add the eggs one at a time, beating well after each addition. It’s okay if the mixture is grainy.
  5. Add the flour mixture and mix on low speed until combined.
  6. Pour the batter into greased 8×4” loaf pans and bake for 65-75 minutes. Let cool for 10 minutes.

Tip Adapted from Once Upon a Chef10

They can run side by side for thousands of miles; they are made of steel. While they constantly touch the ground, they seldom meet or touch each other. What are they?

Last Week’s Riddle: They are sometimes stomped on, yet they can also be very tasty and sweet. What are they?
Answer: Grapes.

Mesquite Dunes
Death Valley National Park, California, United States

Footnotes and Sources

1. WSJ.com, August 1, 2025

2. Investing.com, August 1, 2025

3. CNBC.com, July 28, 2025

4. CNBC.com, July 29, 2025

5. WSJ.com, July 31, 2025

6. MarketWatch.com, August 1, 2025

7. WSJ.com, August 1, 2025

8. WSJ.com, July 30, 2025

9. IRS.gov, July 30, 2024

10. Once Upon a Chef, March 18, 2025 

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