Are You Ready to Retire?

In the United States, we have a potential crisis on the horizon.  The majority of Americans are not financially prepared for their retirement.

Some future retirees are completely unprepared. The Employee Benefits Research Institute (EBRI)’s 2017 Retirement Confidence Survey found almost half (47 percent) of workers have less than $25,000 in personal investments and savings, and about one-quarter has less than $1,000.1

But many are better prepared. Slightly more than half of survey participants were actively saving for retirement. However, not many had taken other steps to prepare such as:1

  • Gauging monthly retirement income needs (38 percent)
  • Preparing a formal, written financial plan for retirement (11 percent)
  • Estimating Social Security benefits at a planned retirement age (38 percent)
  • Thinking about moving or downsizing (38 percent)
  • Determining expenses in retirement (34 percent)
  • Talking with a financial advisor about retirement planning (23 percent)

It is relatively unsurprising to learn people who are most confident about retiring have spoken with a professional financial advisor about retirement planning.1

While working with financial advisors may improve retirement outcomes, saving is critical for anyone who wants to retire from working full-time. In fact, the majority of workers and retirees participating in a recent Wells Fargo survey wish they had begun saving for retirement sooner than they did.2

Factoring in the healthcare variable
No matter when individuals begin to save or how much they’re setting aside, even sound retirement plans can be disrupted by rising healthcare costs and catastrophic illness. There is evidence Americans are concerned about healthcare issues. However, few have factored healthcare expenses into their retirement plans.2

According to a recent Wells Fargo survey, “Nearly half of workers (45 percent) have not actively considered health care expenses for retirement planning, and even among workers age 60+ nearly a quarter (23 percent) have failed to take healthcare expenses into account.”2

It’s daunting to consider health expenses have increased faster than inflation in recent years. In addition, patients are being asked to pay a larger share of the expense. U.S. government figures show spending on healthcare rose by 5.8 percent in 2015. From 2016 through 2025, spending was expected to grow by 5.6 percent a year, on average.3

Retirees feel the effects of higher healthcare costs more than younger Americans do. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services reported, “Per person, personal healthcare spending for the 65 and older population was $18,988 in 2012, over 5 times higher than spending per child ($3,552) and approximately 3 times the spending per working-age person ($6,632).”3

So, how much is healthcare likely to cost during retirement? An expert cited by Morgan Stanley suggested the average retired couple “will spend somewhere between $259,000 and $395,000 over the course of their retirement, depending on their lifespan and health conditions.”4

The news may shock people who believe they’ll need less than $500,000 to retire comfortably (about one-third of those participating in the EBRI RCS).1 Even for people who plan to save more, adding healthcare expenses to retirement calculations may significantly increase savings goals.

Moving toward a comfortable retirement
If thinking about retirement makes you a bit queasy, it’s likely you haven’t prepared as well as you should. The good news is developing and implementing a retirement plan is fairly straightforward. Here are a few steps that can help boost retirement confidence:

  • Create a retirement budget. A retirement budget is no different than a current household budget. Write down (item by item, line by line) how much you expect to spend in retirement. Obviously these estimates will become more accurate as retirement nears.
  • Save for retirement. For many people, a successful retirement strategy means saving at least 15 percent of their income.5 Those who have the good fortune to participate in an employer’s retirement plan may benefit from employer-matching contributions. If you don’t have a retirement plan at work, open an IRA and set-up automatic contributions each pay period.
  • Choose an asset allocation strategy. Asset allocation is dividing your savings among different investments, such as stocks, bonds, and other options. The way people invest their savings is often determined by their age, risk tolerance, and retirement goals.5
  • Prepare for long-term care. Three-of-four retirees will need extended long-term care. If you haven’t planned for it, the cost can really put a dent in your retirement savings. Medicare Part A covers skilled nursing care in a skilled nursing facility for a specific period of time after hospitalization. It does not pay for custodial care for Alzheimer’s or other cognitive illnesses. Consequently, it may be wise to purchase long-term care insurance or add a long-term care rider to a life insurance policy.6
  • Review your plan every year. Retirement planning is not a static activity. Retirement goals may change significantly over a lifetime. As a result, it’s important to review retirement plans often and make any changes needed.

Will you be able to retire comfortably?  It’s a complicated question.  The answer can be equally complicated. If you would like help figuring it out, or want to review your current plan, contact us for a no-obligation consultation.

Market Volatility – Precautions are useless after a crisis!

As you probably know, there has been a lot of market volatility in recent months. Being a financial advisor, I get asked a lot of questions, even from people who aren’t my clients! Some ask if it’s a good time to invest in the markets, or if they should be sticking their money under a mattress. Others ask me about what the future holds for the economy. But the most common question I get is this:
“What,” they say, “is the number one financial tip you can give me?”
Here’s my answer:

Precautions are useless after a crisis!

You’re probably wondering what I mean. It’s simple. When is the worst time to buy a home security system? After a break-in. When’s the worst time to check your tire pressure? After you’ve already had a blowout. When’s the worst time to put your seatbelt on?
You get the idea.
It’s a fundamental fact of life, and it extends to your finances, too. I can’t say for sure when the next bear market will come – and the recent volatility is not necessarily an indication that a bear is just around the corner. What I can say, however, is that a bear market is inevitable, because the markets can take hits just like everything else.

Whether the next bear market comes this year or next, there’s only one thing to do about it, and that’s to have a plan. But a plan is nearly useless after the fact.
We’ve known this lesson since we were kids. Aesop, that ancient master of common sense, says it better than I can in his story, “The Caged Bird and the Bat.”

A singing bird was confined in a cage which hung outside a window and had a way of singing at night when all other birds were asleep. One night, a bat came and clung to the bars of the cage. The bat asked the bird why she was silent by day and sang only at night.
“I have a very good reason for doing so,” said the bird. “It was once when I was singing in the daytime that a fowler was attracted by my voice. He set his nets for me and caught me. Since then, I have never sung except by night.” The bat replied, “It is no use your doing that now when you are a prisoner. If only you had done so before you were caught, you might still have been free.”

As your financial advisor, one of my most important responsibilities is to help you do now what people in the future will wish they had done earlier. That includes preparing for more market volatility.

By reviewing your portfolio, your goals, your current vulnerability to risk, and your overall finances, we can do what needs to be done now rather than waiting until it’s too late. We can plan for the future before the future becomes the present. We can take precautions before the next market crisis. Please fill the questionnaire out and return it to me as soon as possible. By doing this, we can determine:
• Whether it’s time to focus on preserving your money over growing your money.
• Whether you currently own investments not under my management that are unsuitable for your financial goals – especially with more volatility knocking on the door.
• How the recent volatility may be affecting you and what we can do about it.

Market volatility is on the rise. By taking suitable precautions with your money, you’ll find that it’s always there to support you.
Because, after all… Precautions are useless after a crisis.

As always, thank you for your business! We look forward to hearing from you soon.

Make Sure Your Smart Home is Safe from Cyber Attack

Whether you own a house or rent an apartment, building a smart home is easier than it has ever been. Homeowners and renters can purchase kits that integrate specific smart items or they can select smart home products, such as light bulbs, crockpots, coffee makers, thermostats, vacuums, ovens, doorbells, mailboxes, window shades, and security cameras. After downloading the appropriate apps, anyone can connect everything together through a Wi-Fi network.1, 2

Smart digital assistants (SDAs) are the handy commanders of the smart home. Analysts estimated, by the end of 2018, SDAs would be active in almost one-half of American homes.3

These devices won’t take down the holiday decorations, but they will instruct the dishwasher to wash the dishes, tell the sound system what you want to hear, and inform the smart feeder it’s time for Fido’s supper. If you’re a road warrior, you can connect your automobile. If you work long hours, you can connect your office, too.4

Here’s the thing.

While smart homes offer tremendous convenience – and can be a lot of fun – they also have the potential to make Americans vulnerable to cybercrime. According to research published by ScienceDirect, security experts anticipate smart homes will become targets for cybercriminals because they are easy to infiltrate.5 For example, hackers could:

  • Access your smart thermostat and determine when you’re on vacation6
  • Retrieve information (passwords and financial or personal data) shared through a digital assistant6
  • Unlock your smart door with no sign of forced entry7
  • Hijack security cameras to spy on your home7

Just about everything in a smart home can be hacked, and criminals try all the time. Norton reported, “At times of peak activity, the average IoT [Internet of Things] device was attacked once every two minutes, according to the 2017 Internet Security Threat Report, published by Symantec.”6

Securing your smart home
When building a smart home, it’s critical to look beyond cutting-edge gadgetry and give serious thought to system security. Here are six tips for securing your smart home:

Build a strong foundation. Your router is the front door to your smart home and it should be solid and equipped with strong locks – it is your smart home’s foundational item. It connects all of your devices to the Internet. When you move money from one account to another using a home computer or smartphone, the data flows through your router. When you stream shows and movies, this data also flows through your router. You can’t afford to ignore it.6   The first thing to do is make sure your router is encrypting data. Norton suggests selecting Wi-Fi Protected Access 2 (WPA2) to protect your data. Choose a router that supports WPA2, and then take a few extra minutes to set it up.

Consumer Reports suggested several steps that can help keep data private. First, ensure your router software is up-to-date. Second, choose strong passwords. Typically, routers will have two passwords, one to control the router’s settings and a second one to provide access to smart devices. Third, turn off any router features you don’t use.4

Set your network to private. Smart devices have default settings. Some devices default to optimize privacy and security, others do not. Instead of assuming manufacturers have your best interests in mind, review the privacy settings for devices as you connect them.6

Choose 2FA. If the app for your smart device offers two-factor authentication (2FA), use it. In order to make changes, you will have to log in and then confirm your log in by entering a code that’s sent via text or email. If you get a code and didn’t try to log in, you know someone is trying to access your system.6

Give guests a network of their own. If you have a smart home, Norton suggests setting up a separate network for visitors. You cannot be certain whether someone else’s devices are secure. By having guests log on to a separate network, you protect your home and connected devices.6

Upgrade your devices. You probably won’t be passing smart devices from one generation of the family to the next. In fact, you shouldn’t.6

Prepare for a power outage. Many smart devices work when the power goes out. Make sure you know which of yours will and which won’t. For example, did your smart thermostat or smart door lock come with regular or rechargeable batteries or some other type of backup?8

It’s particularly important to understand how your home security system will respond. Systems that rely on Voice-over-Internet-Protocol (VoIP) and the Internet must have online connections or they don’t work. Your security cameras may also have issues during power outages, although a battery bank backup could solve the problem, according to MakeUseOf.com.8

Don’t let the excitement of building a smart home cause you to lose sight of the importance of home security. When your household devices communicate with one another, keeping your data safe presents a whole new set of challenges.

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Investment Risk Management

Financial Advisor, Financial Planner, Adviser, Rockville, Retirement Advisor, Potomac, Retirement Planner, Bethesda, Money Manager, Maryland, Advisor, Retirement, Virginia

Risk Management

Safeguarding Assets

There are more financial advisors than ever before in the US.  The most important difference is whether they have an independent and unaffiliated custodian. We do. The investment advisor initiates transactions as part of its portfolio management responsibility. The custodian then clears transactions as part of its safekeeping responsibility. The custodian has no investment authority (unless assigned for overnight excess cash balance sweep management). They serve to provide an audit trail of all the activity within a client’s investment account. We partner with Schwab as our custodian. They manage over $3.5 trillion in assets, have online account access and reporting and some of the strongest credit ratings in the industry.

Getting Out Of The Stock Market

Over the last several years and even decades, there have been periods of time when all asset classes are under negative pressure and cash is your best investment choice. Although the financial implications of bear markets can vary, typically, bear markets are marked by a 20% downturn or more in stock prices over at least a two-month time frame. Some bear markets have suffered a 40-60% decline in stock prices and have taken many years after to recover losses. In those instances where downside risks significantly outweigh upside potential, we have often chosen to sell investment positions and move to safer cash equivalents.

Using ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) with very low trading costs has made that defensive play cost-effective for families seeking to preserve wealth. Plus, ETFs can be sold at any time during the trading day, whereas mutual funds can only be sold at the end of the day.

Investment Decisions

The oldest law of economics is supply and demand. At Research Financial Strategies, we place a premium on when to make an investment decision based on price movements using technical analysis. Technical analysis is an emotionless investment decision making process. It does not allow for getting caught up in the company or industry story. Investments are made through a series of technical factors.

The most notable factor is one called relative strength. When a security price shows a recognizable pattern of higher highs and higher lows, it demonstrates that there is higher demand than supply for that security.  Given that reality, we continually evaluate the current market environment to take advantage of opportunistic investments being presented. Research Financial Strategies has the unique capability to create unlimited customized asset allocation blends for our diverse client base.

Principal Protection

Our ability to minimize portfolio risk for our clients is a result of having a Sell-Side Discipline. Prior to investing in a security, we establish an exit point based on the % of loss or price our investment advisors determine is acceptable. If the security price is violated, then it is sold. This ensures that profits are protected for our clients. Or worst case, risk to principal is minimized. Only through having an investment approach that has a pre-determined exit strategy for each investment position, can you mitigate portfolio risk during market corrections.

For many clients, allocating a portion of their assets to a strategy that has limited the downside risk is critical to achieving their investment objectives.  However, there is no free lunch in investing or in life. There are numerous financial institutions pitching an array of products that are often not suitable to the client’s needs. Some are just loaded with fees. As independent advisors, we help our clients sift through the noise to find the right solution that works within their larger financial plan.

Liquidity

We invest in ETFs ( Exchange Traded Funds) and bonds funds that provide daily liquidity. Our firm is built on the belief that clients should have access to their money when they want it! And these investments allow us to quickly make decisions to help protect your assets should the stock market start to rapidly decline.

It's All About You!

Our focus is on your life and priorities. Not just your portfolio. That’s why we start by listening and learning about you. Each individual client has different needs and concerns that need to be addressed. We carefully listen to those concerns and we will gain important information that will help us to best serve our clients and help protect their financial futures.

Market Commentary – January 14, 2019

People love rules of thumb.
Sometimes, mental shortcuts are helpful. Other times they are not. When it comes to investing, seasonal shortcuts are not uncommon. In fact, January boasts two:
The January Effect explains why U.S. smaller company stocks tend to outperform the market in January. The original theory held that tax-loss harvesting pushed stock prices lower in December, making shares more attractive to investors in January. An article published in International Journal of Financial Research explained the effect could also owe something to the optimism that accompanies a new year, as well as year-end cash windfalls.

In his book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Burton Malkiel described the January Effect this way, “…the effect is not dependable in each year. In other words, the January ‘loose change’ costs too much to pick up, and in some years it turns out to be a mirage.”

 The January Barometer suggests the performance of stocks during the first month of the year offers insight to the direction of stocks for the year as a whole.

Last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) was up 2.5 percent. If the Index finishes this month higher, then the January Barometer suggests it should finish the year in positive territory.

Of course, you need look no further than 2018 to see the January Barometer is not completely accurate. In January 2018, the S&P 500 gained 5.6 percent, and it finished the year in negative territory.

According to Fidelity, the theory is flawed because, while stocks move higher for the year a significant percentage of the time after gaining value in January, they also move higher for the year a significant percentage of the time after losing value in January.

This is why mental shortcuts are often poor investment guides.

There is one rule of thumb investors may want to consider adopting: A well-allocated and diversified portfolio that aligns with long-term financial aspirations to help meet goals along with periodic reviews with their financial professional.

Oh, What A Year! Every year brings unexpected events. Here are a few remarkable stories you may have missed in 2018:

Abuzz in NYC
“…a menacing horde of honeybees descended on a hot dog vendor’s umbrella, bringing Times Square to a standstill and drawing swarms of gawking tourists. After a brief flurry of excitement, the buzzing interlopers were apprehended by a police officer armed with a vacuum cleaner-like device that sucked them up. The bees were then whisked away to safety.”
–Reuters, December 17, 2018

Mostly indivisible
“There’s a new behemoth in the ongoing search for ever-larger prime numbers – and it’s nearly 25 million digits long. A prime is a number that can be divided only by two whole numbers: itself and 1… We would write the number out for you, but it would fill up thousands of pages, give or take…”
–NPR, December 21, 2018

Hoop dreams
“Basketball is apparently being embraced by North Korea as a fundamental part of its ideology…‘Promoting basketball is not only a sports-related matter, but an important project that upholds the objectives of the [Workers] Party,’ the North Korean paper reportedly stated. ‘We must rush to elevate the sport to global levels.’”
–NPR, December 21, 2018

None for you
“A California court ruled…in a case involving a Celebes crested macaque who took a selfie using a nature photographer’s camera…the court rejected a lawsuit filed on the monkey’s behalf by People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals, which argued the primate was the legal owner of all photos he took. In a decision that likely left the plaintiffs crestfallen, the court ruled that monkeys cannot sue for copyright protection.”
–Reuters, December 17, 2018

We hope 2019 brings you good health, good humor, and great happiness.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“As we navigate our lives, we normally allow ourselves to be guided by impressions and feelings, and the confidence we have in our intuitive beliefs and preferences is usually justified. But not always. We are often confident even when we are wrong, and an objective observer is more likely to detect our errors than we are.”
–Daniel Kahneman, psychologist and author

Best regards,
John F. Reutemann, Jr., CLU, CFP®

P.S.  Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this email with their email address and we will ask for their permission to be added.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

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* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio.  Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Sources:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321495311_Does_the_January_Effect_Still_Exists Page 51
Burton Malkiel, ‘A Random Walk Down Wall Street,’ W.W. Norton & Company, Page 271, January 1, 2019 
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/j/januarybarometer.asp
https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/active-investor/january-barometer
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/31/stock-market-wall-street-stocks-eye-us-china-trade-talks.html
https://www.fidelity.co.uk/markets-insights/daily-insight/what-the-january-effect-really-tells-us
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oddly/bees-brothels-and-monkey-selfies-oh-my-2018-abuzz-with-odd-u-s-stories-idUSKBN1OG213
https://www.npr.org/2018/12/21/679207604/the-world-has-a-new-largest-known-prime-number
https://www.npr.org/2018/12/21/679291823/north-korea-promotes-basketball-as-an-important-project
Daniel Kahneman, ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow,’ Farrar, Straus and Giroux, Page 4, April 2, 2013 

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